Varadkar and Martin don’t need distraction of an Áras bun fight

SO NOW we must enter “the phoney war” phase of the presidential election. It’s that period when Michael, or is it Michelle, Houlihan from Kilahulla Upper, still remembered for coming third in the under-15 egg and spoon race, and now known for getting on radio and television from time to time, refuses to rule him or herself in or out of the “race for the Áras”.

Sources close to these Houlihanstyle would-be runners will abound and facilitate the “speculation om et er” run by idle people like this writer. The speculation will inevitably involve exploratory talks with various people about feasibility and other political guff. If I had another way of paying the rent I’d say: ‘Wake me when it’s over.’ But my feckless habits mean I must follow play.

That is just another way of saying we will have a presidential election this coming October. And that probably means the prospect of a general election has receded into next summer despite the continued political pulling and dragging between the “big two” parties.

Two assumptions have prompted Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin to stand well back from a presidential election expected on October 26 next. One is that President Higgins, now he has finally confirmed he does want another seven years in the Áras, is unbeatable. The other is that money and party members’ readiness to bound the canvass must be conserved for the big one.

Both those assumptions are very hard to argue with right now. But that first one can change, and Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil may find they have miscalculated to their cost.

Sinn Féin clearly believes it can stake out more political territory in a presidential election and broaden its canvass. It’s another opportunity to put a portrait of Mary Lou McDonald on every second lamp post across the country.

A credible Sinn Féin candidate, most likely a woman with middleclass voter appeal, can help the party on its hoped-for post-conflict journey.

Equally, a credible and hither-to unknown outsider candidate could shake things up. We shall see.

This phoney war is also a time for city and county councillors to ponder their occasional role as presidential candidate-makers. Some councils are already getting ready for special meetings to discuss their right to be one of four councils to jointly put one candidate on the presidential ballot paper.

Fianna Fáil has wisely opted to avoid ordering its councillors not to back “political strays”. Fine Gael’s executive council meets on Wednesday next to decide that tricky issue. But if they have any sense they will also avoid the impossible task of trying to tell councillors what to do. Councillors in both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will not be dictated to on use of its seven-yearly nomination power, or much else.

Michael D Higgins has been a good President and will be deemed the firm favourite to win. But he must clearly explain his total reversal of a promise in 2011 to only stand for one term, and he must also tell the nation what exactly he could do over another seven years in the job.

Presidential elections are vicious ones because the office itself is largely ceremonial and symbolic. That puts the focus firmly on the character of the candidate and their past lives, both personal and professional. Journalists, often fed material by visceral rival campaign people, can be goaded into doing very robust and intrusive scrutiny of the candidates.

Last time, in summer and autumn 2011, we saw national politics meet Dublin Zoo. This is not for the faint-hearted. It was a campaign this writer experienced from the inside – but subsequent reading and conversations have led me to conclude that it looked the same from inside or out.

Meanwhile, preparations for the “real election” are continuing. We can expect a general election any time from this on.

Politicians of all parties will tell you the biggest real impediment right now is finding a credible reason for firing the election start-gun.

Fianna Fáil people are less keen than Fine Gael. They have trailed in the polls since Varadkar got his legs under him as leader and Taoiseach, and the economy is motoring very nicely right now.

Micheál Martin and his crew lack a credible political message which can get to people not beset by the housing crisis. They would always struggle to convince prospective voters that they can make inroads on the health services’ problems given their own track record.

Fine Gael people are more bullish and some will privately confide that it would be good to go to the polls before the new sheen wears off Varadkar. But experience also tells them that opinion poll leads do not always hold up in real elections, and last time they lost a 10-point lead during the campaign.

Still, both the big parties continue their megaphone talks about the prospect of renewing the three-year confidence and supply deal of 2016 by which Fianna Fáil underpins the minority Fine Gael-led Coalition. The Taoiseach wants Mr Martin to begin talks on an extension but the Fianna Fáil leader says the deal expires late this year, and there’s time enough yet.

There is a growing assumption that the status quo will limp on, through an impending Budget in October, and on to interlinked finance and social welfare legislation in early 2019.

Presidential elections are vicious. Last time, in the summer and autumn 2011, we saw national politics meet Dublin Zoo. This is not for the faint-hearted