Climate change ‘loading dice’ towards extreme weather

CLIMATE change is “loading the dice towards extreme weather”, with rising global temperatures fuelling heatwaves, experts have warned, as record temperatures, heatwaves and drought are being seen across the northern hemisphere.

Parts of Britain could see temperatures rise to 35C as the country swelters in the extreme hot weather gripping northern Europe.

An intense heatwave hit Japan, with record highs of 41.1C in Kumagaya and 40.8C in Oume, both near Tokyo, on Monday, as the country struggles to recover from its worst flooding and landslide disasters in decades.

In Europe, a second Climate Watch advisory was issued for July 19 to August 6 covering an area from Ireland to the Baltic States and Scandinavia, with temperatures as much as 10C above average in some places in the first week.

The soaring temperatures in northern Europe are accompanied by drought and a risk of local thunderstorms, wildfires and harvest losses, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said.

An extended heatwave in Scandinavia has seen temperatures top 30C in the Arctic Circle, and Sweden reported around 50 forest fires burning in mid July.

Heatwaves were recorded at 15 weather stations across Ireland, with five or more consecutive days with temperatures above 25C, and

an absolute drought at all its stations, the WMO said.

The prolonged warm, dry weather is caused by an area of high pressure sitting to the west of Ireland and Britain.

Professor Peter Stott, of the Met Office, said global temperature rises were fuelling heatwaves, and climate models had been predicting an increase in extremely hot spells for more than a decade. “It’s coming true before our eyes,” he said.

And he said: “It’s quite interesting to compare the temperature anomalies with 1976. Back in 1976 we were having this prolonged heatwave, but much of the globe was pretty average. Now if you look at the globe, it’s pretty warm.”

He said the chances of having so many heatwaves across the globe this summer “must be really low” without climate change.

Professor Stott likened the increased chances of a heatwave to rolling a dice and getting a six – but that climate change was weighting the dice.

“What we’ve seen this summer is repeated throws throwing up a six in different parts of the world.

“If you get a six over and over again you start to think: ‘This is not normal, somebody has given me a loaded dice’.”

Temperatures have risen globally around 1C above pre-industrial levels, as a result of greenhouse gases put into the atmosphere from activities such as burning fossil fuels.