‘The Crocodile’ snaps back, showing how far his country has to go

ONCE upon a time he was notorious as one of Robert Mugabe’s most feared henchmen, a former spy chief whose cunning earned him the nickname ‘the Crocodile’.

On Thursday, Emmerson Mnangagwa was declared the winner of Zimbabwe’s first presidential election since Mugabe – who ruled the country with an iron fist for 37 years – was ousted by the military last year.

But the election and its aftermath have been overshadowed by violence amid claims of ballot rigging.

At least six people were killed in the capital Harare the day before Mnangagwa’s victory was announced when soldiers opened fire on demonstrators protesting alleged electoral fraud.

The unrest not only dashes hopes of a smooth transition, it also undermines Mnangagwa’s efforts to present himself as the man who can herald a new era of engagement with the outside world for what was once a pariah state.

The ugly scenes from Harare this week – protesters dead on the streets and tanks rolling by – summoned memories of the old Zimbabwe, when Mugabe and his security forces brutally repressed their opponents.

According to Zimbabwe’s electoral commission, Mnangagwa – who was installed as caretaker leader after last November’s military takeover – garnered 2.46m votes, or just over 50pc, against 2.14m for the main opposition candidate, Nelson Chamisa, a former lawyer and pastor who heads the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) Alliance.

Earlier this year Chamisa replaced former MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai who, in 2008, was forced to withdraw from a presidential election run-off after Mugabe ordered security forces to crack down on his supporters.

Polls had earlier predicted a slim edge for Mnangagwa.

The electoral commission has been accused of bias towards the governing Zanu-PF, the party of Mugabe and Mnangagwa which still presents itself as a “liberation party” due to its victory in the struggle to overthrow British colonial rule.

But decades on, ZanuPF’s legacy is as much related to the impact of Mugabe’s particular brand of autocracy – he had ruled since independence in 1980 – which ruined what was once one of Africa’s most promising economies.

The fact the electoral commission delayed the declaration of the presidential election results stirred suspicions in opposition circles that something was being cooked.

Chamisa – who had to deal with a rather surreal pre-election endorsement by Mugabe who is still smarting over what he considers a betrayal by his own party last year – continues to insist he won the ballot.

While the MDC has vowed to challenge the outcome in the courts, what is key is how the vote will be judged by election observers and Western governments whose approval is crucial for restarting economic cooperation. For now they are still reserving judgment.

It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Last Monday’s election was intended to project a new image of an increasingly stable Zimbabwe, eager to open up to the world and attract foreign investment.

And the election process itself had passed off peacefully, with observers from the EU and the US – banned for almost two decades by Mugabe – given permission to monitor campaigning and voting.

Opposition candidates were allowed for the first time to canvass in Zanu-PF strongholds and while the EU noted what it called “an unlevel playing field” due to the party’s monopolising of state media and other resources, Zimbabweans were generally enthusiastic about the election.

On the day, they voted in such numbers – 75pc of registered voters cast ballots – that it was one of the largest turnouts in a nation where elections have often been bloody and fraudulent.

What happens next depends on the international response first, and the willingness of Chamisa and Mnangagwa to reach some kind of agreement. The stakes are high.

Mnangagwa, who oversaw some of the Mugabe era’s most repressive periods, will have to deal with the perception that Zanu-PF has not changed and its reputation for political violence and graft is still deserved.

If his legitimacy as a democratically chosen leader remains contested by his opponents – which raises the prospect of further unrest – the hope that this election would usher in a new era evaporates.

On the campaign trail Mnangagwa liked to say Zimbabwe was now “open for business”.

And he talked about reviving what is known as the “Lima Plan” aimed at restructuring the country’s debt, and convincing multilateral institutions to issue loans to Harare for the first time in almost two decades.

Some in Zimbabwe want to see their Zimbabwean dollar, obliterated a decade ago by hyperinflation, back.

Others want to see the return of thousands of diaspora Zimbabweans years after they fled repression and economic collapse.

Mugabe’s removal last winter raised expectations that post-independence Zimbabwe was – finally

– on its way to reaching its potential as a future economic powerhouse in the region.

The events of this week show just how much distance there is to travel yet.

‘If Mnangagwa’s legitimacy is contested, hopes this election might usher in a new era evaporate’