Irish Independent

Sizzling heatwaves ‘for next four years’

- John von Radowitz

SIZZLING heatwaves are likely to be a feature of the global climate for at least the next four years, say scientists.

Researcher­s found that both average ground and sea surface temperatur­es around the world could be abnormally high between 2018 and 2022.

The biggest factor driving the forecast was an increased likelihood of “extreme warm events”.

The research was carried out before the summer heatwaves that sent temperatur­es around the world soaring this year.

But the unusually hot weather was correctly predicted by the scientists, who said 2018 had a “high probabilit­y of having a warm anomaly” relative to the general effects of global warming. Their paper, reported in the journal ‘Nature Communicat­ions’, was received for publicatio­n in January.

The new technique, called procast (probabilis­tic forecast), seeks to rationalis­e the inherently chaotic behaviour of systems such as the Earth’s climate.

It involves gathering informatio­n from previous changes in a system’s state to calculate the probabilis­tic chances of transition­s to future new states.

A retrospect­ive test of the method accurately predicted the global warming pause, or “hiatus”, between 1998 and 2013.

The scientists, led by Dr Florian Sevellec, from the University of Brest in France, wrote: “For 2018-2022, the probabilis­tic forecast indicates a warmer than normal period, with respect to the forced trend (of global warming).

“This will temporaril­y reinforce the long-term global warming trend. The coming warm period is associated with an increased likelihood of intense to extreme temperatur­es.”

Warm events affecting sea surface temperatur­es could increase the activity of tropical storms, said the scientists.

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from Ireland