Why Democrats are keeping silent amid a clamour for the US Congress to act
THE scandals are racking up. Donald Trump’s former campaign manager is a convicted fraudster, his former personal attorney broke campaign finance laws, three other Trump campaign figures have pleaded guilty to crimes and the US president himself stands accused of ordering illegal hush money payments.
For days now the fallout from Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort’s convictions – delivered within minutes of each other – have dominated the front pages, leaving Washington in a fevered state.
But among commentators talking of “the I word” – impeachment – on cable news and in newspaper spreads, there has been one notable absence: the Democrats.
Scores of reporters stalk the corridors of Capitol Hill trying to convince politicians to comment on the latest controversy, but their success rate on bringing up impeachment this week has been poor. The silence is understandable from Republican senators, caught between their instinctive unease with Mr Trump and their unwillingness to draw his ire by voicing their opinions.
But for the Democratic Party – fierce opponents of almost every one of Mr Trump’s policy drives and ever willing to call out his personal foibles – the reluctance is more intriguing.
Elizabeth Warren, the left-wing senator eyeing up a run for the White House, insisted that Robert Mueller’s investigation should run its course before any decisions are taken.
Nancy Pelosi, the most senior Democrat in the House of Representatives, sent a letter to colleagues urging them to focus on talking about the economy ahead of the November mid-terms.
The strategy appears at odds with the Democrats’ core support base, who seem to be itching to kick Trump out. A campaign for impeachment by the prominent donor Tom Steyer has attracted more than five million signatures.
And yet the party’s leadership believes now is not the time to call for impeachment, for two broad reasons – the pragmatic realities and the political consequences.
The Republicans hold majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Ultimately, both bodies of the US Congress have to vote for impeachment for it to be binding.
Even if the numbers change in the mid-terms, for such a drive to succeed it needs the backing of at least some Republicans. Two-thirds of senators have to vote for impeachment for it to pass.
Ms Pelosi acknowledged that reality. “Impeachment is not something that is a partisan exercise,” she said. “Unless you have bipartisanship, you’re just acting politically.”
Following through the logic, impeachment only seriously becomes a goer if a chunk of Republicans decide it is in their interests – politically or otherwise – to break with the president. And with Mr Trump’s hold on the
party’s support base showing few signs of loosening almost two years into office, that does not look likely to happen any time soon.
Only twice has a modern president faced impeachment. Once, with Richard Nixon, both sides backed the move and he resigned. The other time, with Bill Clinton, only one side was supportive and he remained in power.
Secondly, the US voters do not appear convinced. A poll of 1,011 Americans in April asked if they would vote for or against a candidate who supported impeachment. Results predictably split along party lines, with 70pc of Democrats saying they would definitely back such a candidate and 84pc of Republicans saying they would not. But the most interesting result was among independents. Some 47pc would vote against the candidate and 42pc for them. In other words, swing voters broke against a politician backing impeachment.
Calling for a democratically elected president to be ejected from office only 20 months into his term appears to jar with a large chunk of the electorate. Or, at the very least, there is no obvious surge in support for the move that would convince the Democrats to change strategy.
With every new conviction of a Trump campaign figure there is a chance the odds will change. Who knows where we will be by Christmas, or this time next year? Democrats clearly do not think it is in their political interests to back impeachment, so they are sitting on their hands – for now at least. (© Daily Telegraph, London)