‘Centrists need to stick to the facts’
THESE are foreboding times for the world. From the economic earthquake of a decade ago to more recent political earthquakes, there is a sense that an era is drawing to a close.
The centre ground of democratic politics, which built modern Ireland, modern Europe and the world order that has existed since the end of the World War II, is being squeezed. The vote is fragmenting in many democracies.
Those who do not share the values that span the centre-right and centre left – most notably a belief in restraint and moderation – have made electoral gains. In some countries, they have come to power.
Those who believe that the centre ground, for all its failings, offers the best real solutions to today’s opportunities and challenges often seem to have been shocked into silence. They will have to speak up if the centre is to hold.
The centre needs to be less defensive and underscore its achievements.
There are many problems here in Ireland and much that could be improved upon, but there is more that is good, and enormous progress has been made in recent decades. We live longer and healthier lives than ever before. Each generation is better educated than the one before and Ireland’s third-level qualification rate among younger people is one of the highest in the world.
When it comes to job opportunities, choices are proliferating as revealed by figures this week which show more people than ever at work in Ireland.
The same is true across the 28 countries that form the EU, as employment levels across Europe reach fresh historic highs. And while the European order is as flawed as our own domestic order, it has also brought many gains, including its contribution to preventing major wars across the continent since the middle of the last century.
Globally, there has been a huge reduction in infant mortality and extreme poverty, with even the poorest corners of the planet benefiting. While centrist democrats cannot claim all the credit for these achievements, nobody deserves more credit.
The unfolding humanitarian crisis in Venezuela is but the latest example of how the extremes can promise great things only to end up destroying lives and livelihoods.
The same is to be seen closer to home, if in less dramatic terms. Those who claimed that Brexit would be easy and instantly beneficial for Britain are finding out that ripping out the painfully built invisible infrastructure of the modern world comes with very significant cost.
Brexit and other electoral outcomes in Europe and the US have caused a crisis of confidence among the centre-left and centreright. They need to get over it fast. They have delivered over decades in a way the extremes will never be able to do.
Myths and falsehoods must be addressed with fact and evidence.
Ireland is becoming ever more unequal, and rural Ireland is dying on its feet because of neglect. Both of these statements are false. They are based on no hard evidence. Yet they are repeated again and again. Many believe them to be true because they have been repeated without challenge so often.
Too often, the political centre allows those with agendas to set the agenda, even when the entire premise of their arguments has no basis in fact and evidence.
Another claim that is made here and across the western world is that economic insecurity is rising inexorably. Indeed, it is frequently
Too often, the political centre allows those with agendas to set the agenda, even when the entire premise of their arguments has no basis in fact and evidence
cited as an explanation for the rise of illiberal extremes.
The economic crises of 2008-2013 did indeed cause enormous damage and insecurity, and it is perfectly legitimate to claim that not enough has been done to mitigate the effects and prevent such slumps happening again.
But one aspect of the economic insecurity argument has very little basis in fact and has not been scotched as aggressively as it should have been.
Temporary employment, involuntary part-time employment and self-employment – bogus or otherwise – have been remarkably stable in Ireland over two decades. In most European countries the same is the case, and where change has taken place it has been marginal.
We don’t have to live in a post-fact world. If the political centre ground does not aggressively take on the myths peddled by a coalition of illiberals and interest groups, and insist on fact and evidence as the basis for debate, then it really will be in trouble.
There is a need for a narrative around immigration. If economic insecurities are the subject of much discussion by parties of the centre ground, the debate on the insecurities that some people feel around immigration and diversity in societies is different.
In part because of a desire not to be lured onto the turf of extreme parties and movements, the mainstream has been rightly wary of engaging them in debating in a way that would legitimise them and their positions.
But with immigration now at the top of voter concerns in many countries, finding a way to address legitimate concerns about a phenomenon that is not without downside is necessary.
The view of most centrists – that immigration tends to be economically beneficial, which is supported by hard evidence, and that diversity is good for society – has not stopped the rise of antiimmigration parties.
There is no easy answer to this question.
Here in Ireland this is much less of an issue than in most peer countries. Large-scale immigration does not appear to have triggered the same reaction here as elsewhere and, as such, is less of a political challenge.
Let’s hope it stays that way because there is no ready solution if it does not.