Leo wants early election – and to be able to blame it on Fianna Fáil

TO PARODY the best known line from the classic movie ‘The Godfather’, the Taoiseach appears to be making Micheál Martin “an offer he can’t accept”.

Leo Varadkar is seeking a two-year extension to the unique arrangement by which Fianna Fáil underpins the minority Coalition led by Fine Gael. The deal, struck in May 2016, runs out after the third of three Budgets is presented by Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe in less than five weeks’ time, on October 9.

The Taoiseach argues that the Government cannot continue to operate amid uncertainty after the forthcoming Budget, and he wants a guarantee from Fianna Fáil that it will keep this Government going until summer 2020.

Mr Varadkar cites the ongoing housing crisis among the items that would justify such a deal.

Fianna Fáil, quite simply, smells a rat. It believes Mr Varadkar, with Fine Gael consistently a solid 10 points ahead of its rivals in the polls, wants an election later this year, or early next year, and he wants Fianna Fáil to shoulder the blame.

Tánaiste Simon Coveney was asked on radio yesterday whether US President Donald Trump was canvassing the IrishAmerican vote for mid-term elections by visiting Ireland in November. Mr Coveney honestly said politicians usually have a political motive for their actions.

So, never mind Fianna Fáil giving it a bit of kettle, pot, and black in urging Fine Gael to “put country ahead of party”. Political parties will more usually give a heavy weighting to their own political fortunes and both the ‘big two’ are no exception now.

It is the second run-out for this melodrama. On Thursday, July 19, both Messrs Varadkar and Martin met for an hour in Killarney and that weekend the Taoiseach, to Fianna Fáil’s fury, revealed that he was seeking a two-year extension.

Once the fury cooled, there were signals from senior Fianna Fáil people, like deputy leader Dara Calleary and finance spokesman Michael McGrath, that a 12-month extension was feasible, bringing us to autumn 2019. Yesterday, party leader Mr Martin rebuffed the latest overture, saying agreement on next month’s Budget comes first.

The early election and blame game resurfacing again is based on an exchange of letters in recent days between the two party leaders.

The Taoiseach’s letter was much longer and more detailed than Mr Martin’s blunt reply and his party’s backroom elves will doubtless keep it carefully as it outlines the future Fine Gael election manifesto.

Fianna Fáil is not well fixed in this game because it wants an election less than Fine Gael. But Mr Varadkar must be careful what he wishes for. His poll lead could disappear amid such transparent tactics, and a hardfought election focusing on big problems in housing and health. If he has any doubts, he should look at his party’s fate in that last disastrous election of February 2016.