John Downing

Micheál Martin has one year to avoid being the only Fianna Fáil leader never to be Taoiseach

AS THE Fianna Fáil TDs and senators tomorrow gather for their back-to-Dáil think-in, Micheál Martin still looks like the only party leader in its 92-year history who will not get to be Taoiseach. There is unhappiness in the party ranks, not least about being solidly 10 points behind Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael. They collect blame for Government shortcomings on things such as health and housing, and get very little credit for any positive Fianna Fáil-driven developments, like social welfare increases and more spending on services.

The renewed stand-off between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil over the confidence and supply agreement’s future, and whether there should be an extension or an election, again points up Mr Martin’s strange position. He must, at one and the same time, facilitate Government and also call it to account.

There is a recurring danger that many positive things about Mr Martin’s seven-year stewardship at the Fianna Fáil helm may be seriously downplayed, if not totally overlooked. After their February 2011 electoral meltdown, there were serious questions about the party’s continued existence. Under Mr Martin, it is very much back in business. He has along the way shown himself to be courageous and possessing good political judgment. His indecisiveness as a cabinet minister, especially as health minister from 2000 until 2004, has been replaced by a much more decisive approach.

In February 2016, he defied opinion polls, managed a surge in support, and brought Fianna Fáil to within one percentage point and six Dáil seats of Fine Gael. In December 2017, he played a good political poker game, forcing the resignation of Tánaiste Frances Fitzgerald.

The strange Dáil arithmetic left Mr Martin choosing the lesser of three evils in mid-2016. He rejected the prospect of another pointless election, or full coalition with Fine Gael as offered by caretaker Taoiseach Enda Kenny.

The coalition choice could have seen Mr Martin being elected Taoiseach for a portion of that government’s existence. But it would also very likely have seen a merger between the ‘big two’ parties, ending the existence of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael as we have known them.

Instead, he opted for this so-called confidence and supply deal. It seemed beneficial for his party for about 18 months. There was a growing assumption that, come the next election, Fianna Fáil might well emerge as the biggest party in a position to lead government with Mr Martin as Taoiseach.

Then enter Fine Gael’s shiny new leader Leo Varadkar in May 2017 with his young, modern and different image. For the past 12 months, Mr Varadkar has presided over a 10-point lead for his party, making his supporters confident and his opponents, especially in Fianna Fáil, rather restive.

Ten days ago, Mr Varadkar renewed his public call, initially made in late July, for a two-year extension to the Government arrangement, arguing it was necessary for political stability during vital Brexit negotiations. The Taoiseach argued that a government could not work while not knowing how long it was likely to survive after the next Budget is passed on October 9, a date which would also see the expiration of the confidence and supply deal.

It was a straight attempt by Mr Varadkar to either extend his term, or force an election for which Fianna Fáil could be blamed. Mr Martin has been clear in his prompt response.

He will not open talks on an extension of the agreement before the Budget is passed. He will honour the terms of the original deal done on May 6, 2016, and review the possibility of an extension at the end of this year.

Both men are attempting to boost their respective parties and trying to be seen to respect their responsibility to provide a workable government. The new politics and confidence and supply deal have huge flaws. But the system has worked out better than many naysayers, including this writer, predicted in summer 2016.

Yes, it has been severely restricted in the kind of legislation which can be got through the Dáil and Seanad. But it has provided a government.

Both parties have taken hits along the way. Fianna Fáil has had the constant drag of responsibility with very limited power. Fine Gael had to stomach the forced loss of Mr Varadkar’s first Tánaiste, Ms Fitzgerald.

There are big risks for both leaders in the current extension or election standoff. Mr Varadkar has no guarantee he will lead Fine Gael to a better result in such an election. Even if he did, there is no guarantee he would be able to form a government because the numbers could dictate another line-up.

But Mr Martin also knows he has just one more shot at becoming Taoiseach.

And he has, at best estimate, just one more year to make that a real possibility, assuming the current stand-off lands where many people expect it to land, with a one-year government extension. That would give us an election in late 2019.

In that time, he needs to close the gap with Fine Gael in the popularity stakes, and fend off Sinn Féin’s newly re-energised attacks under their formidable new leader, Mary Lou McDonald.

Sinn Féin will continue its ‘two for one’ attacks on Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, making it hard for Messrs Martin and Co to effectively attack the Government it is propping up for the housing crisis and significant shortcomings in health services.

The new Dáil term will begin with an allout attack on the ill-starred Housing Minister Eoghan Murphy, leaving Fianna Fáil supporting the minister by default.

In this attack on Mr Murphy, like the Taoiseach’s extension or election gambit, Mr Martin has taken the only action open to him. He has immediately stated that Fianna Fáil will not back Sinn Féin, whom he accused of blatant political opportunism.

Some solution for Mr Martin and Fianna Fáil may lie in ramping up new policy issues. The creeping lawlessness in many housing estates has potential, and the spiralling cost of insurance is equally crying out to be addressed.

On the plus-side of things, Mr Martin’s leadership is secure – but only until the next election. Dissidents such as John McGuinness are in the marginal corner.

He also has managed through a situation where the bulk of his parliamentary party parted company with him on the abortion issue.

The referendum result has vindicated him and the issue will scarcely rate a mention from now on. It offers the potential for Mr Martin to resume his plan to move party policy in a liberal direction.

Supporters of Mr Martin also hope he will get lucky. It amounts to hoping Mr Varadkar and/or his key people will royally screw up. That could happen but it’s not really much of a plan.

In reality, Fianna Fáil urgently needs a strong message for voters.