December Euro draw gives O’Neill reign firm deadline
What can change for team between now and key date?
ON December 2 of this year, Dublin will be the centre of attention in European football.
The qualifying draw for Euro 2020 will take place in the Convention Centre, with delegates from 55 nations descending on the Irish capital to learn their fate.
There is a danger that they will arrive to find a host nation in crisis.
Martin O’Neill has contested the notion his Ireland side are already engulfed in that mode, and has five games to disprove the argument, starting with tomorrow’s friendly in Poland.
Every second autumn a new international campaign kicks off, but there was a school of thought that this time would be slightly different because of the arrival of the Nations League and the difficulty in ascertaining the importance of those games for now.
However, December’s event has helped to provide a straightforward enough short-term focus.
If Ireland finish bottom of their Nations League group they will drop to third seeds and risk landing a pair of big guns – with the possibility of no fallback if it goes wrong.
Suddenly this has become a significant period for this Irish side. The five games that lie ahead could set the tone for the entirety of this qualification cycle. Key factors will determine what happens from here.
DOES O’NEILL STILL HAVE THE PLAYERS’ SUPPORT?
Discussion veered into this area in O’Neill’s briefing post-Cardiff, with a dispiriting performance leading to some critics suggesting that the players looked completely demoralised – with Paul McGrath particularly strong in this area.
In the course of his summer interviews, O’Neill defended his policy of naming his team late and said that he was doing enough work on the training ground with his players.
“Players listen to me, let me tell you,” said O’Neill. “Absolutely. I’ve had players listening to me all my managerial career. It’s a wee bit more difficult at international level when you only have them for a day or two. There are a number of players playing international football who would readily admit that I improve their games.”
Ironically enough, a criticism of O’Neill’s predecessor Giovanni Trapattoni was that he was too rigid in terms of his coaching style and players grew bored. O’Neill’s more player-friendly approach was welcomed at the start, as he did not overburden players with double sessions or an inflexible approach to systems, but the argument now is that his squad require more guidance in this area.
CAN THE KEANEARTER ROW BE CLARIFIED?
The ‘Sunday World’ carried a story with quotes from a “witness” to the row between the Ireland assistant and Harry Arter which has effectively led to the player taking a self-imposed exile.
Arter’s plight was only really a footnote to the Thursday night post-mortem. The defeat was so comprehensive that it was hard to reach the conclusion that the 28-year-old would dramatically have improved Ireland’s performance level.
It’s possible that Arter might have misjudged the extent to which the public was energised by his availability and, at this stage, he needs to come out and speak about what happened –if that helps to explain his stance – or risk being forgotten if Robbie Brady and James McCarthy return.
However, the broader topic here is what Keane brings to the party and it’s worrying that the assistant’s influence has resulted in a player departing the camp when, generally, the number two tends to act as a buffer with the manager.
DECLAN RICE’S INTENTIONS
There were positive soundings about the West Ham youngster ahead of the game in Cardiff and he would lift the mood if he were to announce he has committed his international future to Ireland. It was significant that Seamus Coleman was so adamant in public that the 19-year-old would be welcomed into the dressing room. If this scenario comes to pass – and it’s still an ‘if’ – he would have to accompany any returning statement with an explanation behind his thinking in stalling.
A Rice (left) comeback would be a boost to O’Neill as it would refute the theory that he was staying away because of the current managerial team.
The FAI and O’Neill have strongly denied that Rice got caught up in the Keane-Arter skirmish.
HOW WILL THE PUBLIC RESPOND?
Ireland face two big games with Denmark and Wales in the space of four days at the Aviva. June’s friendly with the USA was the first since the World Cup play-off and it must be acknowledged that the public response was quite positive – it helped that Rice’s presence and an open enough game made it an entertaining evening.
However, it was a friendly against a very experimental side and a Danish return to these shores and a rematch with a vibrant Welsh side will bring real pressure.
The magnitude of the matches should ensure a healthy crowd is present and the FAI’s season tickets for rank and file supporters are reasonably priced. Nevertheless, the reaction to Thursday was a mix of anger and indifference and bad vibes around the stadium could have a destabilising effect.
ARE THE FAI FULLY BEHIND THEIR MAN?
There is no reason to doubt that at this juncture, but the support would be tested by a negative outcome to the October fixtures and supporter anger to go with it. After all, the international team is the main driver of revenue for the association and they desperately need a successful Euro 2020 campaign given the impact of bringing tournament games in Dublin would be dented considerably by the absence of home involvement.
If Ireland do drop to third seeds, then the argument will be constructed that a fresh face should be drafted in to try and achieve more with the options available. The counterpoint to that is that the options are limited and there is no outstanding candidate waiting in the wings. Mick McCarthy is the obvious, out-of-work, safe pair of hands, yet there’s still a gamble involved in going down that route.
DOES O’NEILL REALLY HAVE FIVE GAMES TO SAVE HIS JOB?
This is the bottom line point. It would be unfair to place too much emphasis on the outcome of the Poland game as Ireland’s squad is weak and it should be used as a learning exercise. Nevertheless, the group have been able to spend a sustained period of time together – by international standards – in the aftermath of Wales, so the manager needs the evidence of that to be visible.
However, it’s October that really matters and the reality is that Ireland need to win one of those games to get the show back on the road. Two draws would only assuage fears if the performance levels were good, and there were signs that struggles in the area of creativity were being overcome.
Northern Ireland come to town for a November friendly and that could be a grim exercise if the natives are restless. A competitive away game in Denmark brings an end to the series and it’s a fortnight from there until the draw, but four months until the traditional qualifying action kicks off.
Ultimately, the gut feeling is that it would take something dramatic for the FAI to abandon course given they fought to keep O’Neill, but the last two competitive defeats have been fairly dramatic and they tend not to like it out in Abbotstown when they become the story.
After all, there’s nothing worse than a messy house when a bunch of guests arrive.