Hard Border back in play as Brexit talks floundering
THE Government is willing to drop its “bulletproof” guarantee of avoiding a hard Border in order to prevent Britain crashing out of the EU next March with no deal.
Senior Brexit sources have told the
Irish Independent that EU and UK negotiators are searching for ways to “soften” the so-called Irish backstop in order for it to pass in the UK parliament.
Brexit sources say they recognise London won’t be able to sign off on the Border guarantee as it currently stands, and Ireland will face economic “catastrophe” if the UK leaves the EU with no deal.
“If we carry on the way we’re going, we’ll have no transition, no deal, just economic catastrophe,” said one source.
The backstop is the legal commitment from Britain that there can be no hard Border on the island of Ireland regardless of the future relationship between the EU and the UK after Brexit. It was negotiated last December and vaunted by Taoiseach Leo Varadkar as “bulletproof”.
However, the Brexit source said the language around the backstop will have to be softened.
“We’ll need to amend it in order to achieve the greater good, rather than fight to the death on the existing backstop and push them over the edge with no deal,” said the source.
In spite of signing off on it last December, the British government rejected the text when the EU issued it in legal form in February of this year.
British Prime Minister Theresa May dismissed the EU’s version – which would keep Northern Ireland within the EU’s customs union in the event of a no deal – as “inconceivable”. She also said it threatened the constitutional order of the UK.
Mrs May subsequently conceded that a backstop was necessary, but has failed to bring forward a workable, alternative version.
Progress on Brexit has since faltered on finding a compromise on the language in time for the deadline of the Withdrawal Agreement which is due to be signed off by November at the latest.
The Withdrawal Agreement is the overall treaty containing the terms and conditions in which the UK leaves the EU. It also includes the Irish backstop and details of a two-year transition period where the UK will remain within the single market and customs union while a future relationship is negotiated with Brussels.
The Irish government is also to leave open the idea that the backstop could be further altered in the future, once the future relationship between the UK and the EU is clear.
Explaining why the Irish government is now willing to back down on the issue of the backstop, another source said “we are going to run out of time” and the Government needs to ensure the transition period is in place.
“Let’s face it, nobody is prepared for the UK crashing out,” they added.
The Government published some of its contingency plans in the case of this ‘doomsday scenario’. It involves the deployment of around 1,000 customs officials to manage regulatory and customs controls. However, they won’t be in place by next March when Brexit happens.
“We’re doing our contingency planning but there’s no way we’ll have 1,000 customs officials trained by March next year,” said the Irish source.
Dublin is willing to start a conversation about amending the backstop now in order to prevent a major climbdown at the last minute at a crucial summit in Brussels.
“We don’t want to be caught making this concession at one minute to midnight,” they said, adding it’s better to alter things now “rather than fight to the death and lose”.
“At the end of the day it will be for the greater good,” said the source.
It is understood EU and UK teams, with the input of the Irish government, are now working on developing a new version of the backstop that “gives everyone cover until the future relationship is agreed”.
Britain would like a “UK-wide backstop” which would allow it to remain in the customs union and single market for goods until a new trade agreement has been agreed. But Brussels will likely oppose this as it amounts to the UK cherry-picking the single market.
“The ingredients are there to get to an agreement on the backstop by November,” said the source. It will still have to be “legally and technically operational, but politically palatable”, they added.
The source said a change in language was aimed to put an end to the “histrionics” that emerged when it was initially published this year. The EU’s lead negotiator Michel Barnier said the EU wants to “de-dramatise” the Border issue.
“We’ll get it (the Withdrawal Agreement) passed by November if we can remove the fear that it is somehow an attempt to interfere with the place of Northern Ireland within the UK,” said an EU source.