HIGGINS IS WAY AHEAD – BUT SURPRISES ARE ALWAYS IN STORE

IT DOES seem a little reminiscent of the run-in to this year’s All Ireland senior football final, when many good judges felt that, such was the Dublin team’s all-conquering prowess, there appeared little benefit in Tyrone even turning up. As the race for Áras an Uachtaráin is about to move out of the phoney-war phase ahead of voting on October 26, we find that two out of three voters say they would back President Michael D Higgins for a second seven-year term. Seán Gallagher, the surprise almost-winner last time in 2011, is his nearest rival on just 15pc of the vote, and the others are even further down the field.

On that showing, in a Red C survey for the ‘Sunday Business Post’, this one already seems done and dusted. Yet we can already hear the non-Michael D supporters point out that, as it happens, Tyrone did make a match of it. And with a little luck and a smidgeon more confidence, they might have even caused a major upset.

Similarly, in a presidential election, of all voter contests, pretty much anything can happen. Some will argue that Mr Higgins is in an unenviable position. This election may be his to lose.

In October 2011, Michael D Higgins was the clear leader from very early in the race. But with two weeks to go he was overhauled in the polls by the Independent contender, Seán Gallagher. A dramatic series of controversial events in the final days saw Mr Higgins again overtake Seán Gallagher to run out a clear winner with a record vote.

There is no reason why we may not see such extraordinary events again. Presidential elections can throw up eclectic results.

Way back in 1945, the revered Independent Republican Dr Patrick McCartan got a creditable 20pc of the vote when Seán T Ó Ceallaigh won out. In 1965, Fine Gael’s Tom O’Higgins came within 11,000 votes of defeating the iconic Éamon de Valera, and in 1990 leftist candidate Mary Robinson caused a big upset.

So, let’s not make too many assumptions. The entry, as expected, of Sinn Féin’s Liadh Ní Riada will be watched with great interest.

Ms Ní Riada has limited political experience as a Euro MEP since 2014. But as the daughter of Seán Ó Riada, the most influential figure in the Irish music revival, she will enjoy good name recognition. She is also a native Irish speaker, an asset when seeking one of the few elected offices which requires such a skill.

Seán Gallagher’s supporters will hope he can benefit from a revival of controversy surrounding the false tweet in the final television debate on RTÉ television, which led to a High Court case being settled in his favour. Others will doubt the benefits of old battles.

But all will soon be revealed.

Some will argue that Higgins is in an unenviable position. This election may be his to lose