Stats suggest dry spell could signal end to Kane’s golden run
EXPERIENCE should tell us that writing off Harry Kane is a hazardous and foolhardy proposition. The player who spent much of his early career on loan, only to become the one-season wonder still going strong four years later, has enough goals behind him to suggest he is not suddenly about to stop scoring at the age of 25.
Social media was still duly rammed with angry opinion – mostly asking whether Kane was even playing – following a fourth consecutive game without a goal in Tottenham Hotspur’s 2-1 defeat by Liverpool.
Equally predictable was Mauricio Pochettino’s insistence that he has no concerns about a player in whom expectations are so elevated.
You can be sure Spurs will have their own detailed data and conclusions about Kane and, beneath all the noisy perceptions, that will tell us much about both what makes him so good and this dip.
They also certainly very clearly suggest that something has changed since Kane returned from his ankle injury in April.
“He’s one of the best strikers in the world,” insisted Pochettino. “I don’t care that he wasn’t great [on Saturday]. He’s going to score goals and he’s going to perform in the way we want and we expect. No problem.”
Pochettino is adamant that Kane is not being overworked. “I don’t believe that. I only believe the situation of the team is more collective than that,” he said.
“If you say it’s only Harry, I don’t like it when people point the finger at some players. It’s always collective and we need to help him, to give the ball in a better position for him to be more clear. But it’s a collective thing, not just Harry.
“It’s not a problem. Of course there is a challenge with nine players involved until the end of the World Cup, but I’m not going to complain.
“We provided them with a good rest, 21 days, and they started a few days before the competition started at Newcastle United. We knew that it was a massive challenge for us. When you win, you win.
“When you lose, yes of course you need to talk about different things, but I’m not worried. We are going to win a lot of games. We have trust in the squad. Of course we need to improve, but we’re in a very good way.”
Kane says the past two defeats were down to different factors, attributing Saturday’s loss to poor use of the ball rather than tiredness.
“People are always going to look for stuff, especially when you are a big part of the team and someone who is there to get the goals,” said Kane. “As a team, we can all do better and as the striker you get spoken about more, but I feel sharp and fit and, if I wasn’t, the manager would not be picking me.
“He believes in me, I believe in myself and hopefully I can score a couple of goals on Tuesday and it will be put to bed.”
Kane is, however, what football statisticians would deem an ‘outlier’ in terms of his ‘expected goals’.
This is a mechanism by which players and teams are assessed according to the positions they get into and how often they would usually be expected to score over a long period of time.
This is useful because football’s sheer randomness can make even the length of one season a limited period to make definite conclusions.
Kane’s deadly finishing is reflected in how he has always converted an unusually high proportion of chances.
Such consistency has led most scouts to accept he is simply exceptional in front of goal and that this is not some unsustainable golden streak.
There is, however, a second statistic that is increasingly relevant. Since coming back from his injury, there has been a drop in the number of shots Kane is taking.
According to C&N Sporting Risk, a sports analytics company that predictively models performance, Kane was taking almost six shots per game before his ankle injury last season. That figure was just under four through 2016-17 and yet, since April, it has been 2.37. Not including penalties, Kane had only 11 shots in seven matches at the World Cup.
This is an admittedly limited sample period – and Kane has previously found a way through lean spells – but it is this aspect that will most concern Spurs.
One theory, rejected by Kane, is that it is an issue of fatigue following the World Cup. Another is that his pace and sharpness have been affected by the ankle injury. Perhaps most convincing is that the service from the likes of Christian Eriksen and Dele Alli has dipped.
The wider worry is whether it could affect his confidence and, in turn, threaten his conversion rate.
Yes, it is early in the season – and the numbers are as yet only mildly troubling – but whether Kane will keep defying the statistical norms has become an increasingly pertinent question. (© Daily Telegraph, London)