Dan O’Brien

No-deal Brexit could leave Irish shops with empty shelves while our food produce rots in docks

THE British government is signalling ever more clearly that it will not sign up to anything that could lead to Northern Ireland being taken out of the UK’s customs territory. The “backstop” proposal, put on the table last November, was a high-risk tactic by the Irish and EU side designed to prevent any change to current Border arrangements on this island as a result of Brexit.

Unfortunately, the gambit looks less likely than ever to pay off. Worse still, it looks ever more likely to lead to a no-deal Brexit.

There has been no progress between the sides in the 10 months since Dublin and Brussels first proposed that London commits to leaving the North in the EU’s customs territory in all eventualities.

That lack of progress is evident – yet again – as Leo Varadkar, Theresa May and their fellow European leaders meet in Salzburg to talk Brexit. The Taoiseach and his foreign minister continue to insist that Ireland will accept nothing less than a treaty-enshrined commitment to remove Northern Ireland from the UK’s customs territory if the UK as a whole does not remain a de facto part of that same territory.

There is broad consensus across British political opinion that agreeing in principle to have just one part of the UK subject to non-UK customs arrangement and laws after Brexit threatens the constitutional integrity of the country.

That was evident during the summer when there was no opposition from any quarter to new legislation explicitly outlawing such an outcome in Britain’s House of Commons.

It is possible that the British government will buckle and that the Westminster parliament does a U-turn to vote in favour of an EU withdrawal bill containing a Northern Ireland backstop. But, as this column has argued since late last year, that is the least likely of all outcomes.

Even small and powerless countries do not cede customs control of parts of their territory to others. Some in Britain may have a grossly exaggerated sense of their global clout, but as the sixth-biggest economy in the world it is unlikely in the extreme that the UK will accept something as unprecedented as what is being proposed in the backstop.

If Theresa May’s government continues to reject the backstop, the Irish and EU side will face a momentous choice within weeks: backtrack on the demand that Northern Ireland alone remains in the EU’s customs territory; or stick to that position and see Britain leave next March with no deal. Of all outcomes, the latter would be the worst possible one for this island.

Because it is so serious, its most impactful consequences need serious consideration.

In recent months the British government’s contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit have raised the possibility of shortages of essential items, including of food and medicines. That is a real prospect – in Ireland as well as in Britain. Because Brexit is scheduled to take place in just six months, people and businesses here need to think hard about all of the implications.

For the Government, the first concern must be for consumers. Producers are of secondary importance. In other words, if it comes to trading off those two sets of interests, minimising disruption of imports of basic necessities must get priority ahead of the interests of producers who export. That needs saying because, thus far, much more attention has been given to export risks than to import risks.

Half of the food imported into Ireland comes from the UK. More is shipped across the British “land bridge” from the continent and elsewhere. Fully free movement of these goods, and all others from the UK, will end abruptly next March if there is a no-deal Brexit.

Unlike the UK, the Republic produces more food than it consumes. That means that outright food shortages are unlikely even in an extreme scenario. But in the case of some foodstuffs – most notably cereals and vegetables – Ireland imports more than it exports. Vulnerability is greater for these foods.

In the event of a no-deal Brexit there is a small, but non-negligible risk that delays for goods entering Irish ports could lead to food shortages over days and weeks. Everyone needs to start considering the implications of this, including for their own families.

What about exporters? There have been suggestions recently that Britain may not levy import taxes on some goods entering its market even if the EU side decides to impose the same taxes on British goods coming into the EU. In order to mitigate the risks of delays at its ports, the British side may also wave trucks through without customs checks.

It should be added, and in contrast to what has sometimes been suggested, that the British can do this without breaching any World Trade Organisation obligations. The WTO is not like the European Commission. It does not act as a policeman and its officials have powers more akin to those of UN bureaucrats than to those of Eurocrats. If any WTO issue were to arise from an unpoliced British border, it would require another country in that organisation to claim it was being specifically discriminated against as a result, and for that country to take a legal case against the UK to the WTO. As such cases take many years, there will be nothing to stop Britain leaving its borders open in the short to medium term.

That is what passes for good news for Irish food producers these days. If, after a no-deal Brexit and in the interests of food security, Britain allows Irish produce to enter on the same terms as before, then there is less risk that Irish produce will rot in ports on either side of the Irish Sea owing to delays and disruption.

That may be good news in the very short term. But a no-deal Brexit also makes it more likely that Britain would open its market to cheaper, southern hemisphere produce.

That remains the biggest threat to Irish food producers.

As many in the farming community attend a weather-disrupted Ploughing Championship, they may need to prepare for a much more permanent disruption from next March.