CARBERY CHALLENGE
MUNSTER OUT-HALF IS ALREADY A TONY WARD, THE REAL TEST IS TO SEE IF HE CAN BECOME AN OLLIE CAMPBELL
This day next year, Joe Schmidt’s team kick off their World Cup campaign against Scotland in Yokohama. Ranked second in the world and judged second favourites by the bookies, the Grand Slam winners have never looked in better shape a year out from the competition. The New Zealander has 365 days to fine-tune his preparations as he looks to break the quarter-final glass ceiling and go further than any Irish team has before
EIGHT times, Ireland have made their way to a World Cup and eight times they have found the quarter-final glass ceiling impenetrable.
For all of the progress made since its inception in 1987, the men in green have never cracked this tournament.
It has become a stain on an otherwise exemplary record, a lingering doubt over Ireland’s place at rugby’s top table.
In a year’s time, Joe Schmidt’s team will bid to become the first team from this country to make the rarefied air of the last four and beyond.
Ranked second in the world after beating all of their potential rivals since the 2015 campaign came crashing down around them in Cardiff, no Irish team has ever been better placed to do it.
No Irish coach has ever had a better platform from which to attack the tournament.
In his six seasons in charge, Schmidt has become an all-powerful figure who enjoys the type of control and influence that his predecessors could only dream of.
According to IRFU performance director David Nucifora, the key finding that emerged from the 2015 World Cup report was the same as the conclusion drawn from the 2011 exit; the foreign signings in the Irish system were blocking the path of Irish players in key positions and, thus, negatively affecting the national team.
In the intervening years, Nucifora’s stamp is all over the game. Ruan Pienaar departed, Stephen Moore and Elton Jantjies’ moves to Munster and Ulster respectively were blocked, John Cooney, Joey Carbery and Jordi Murphy changed provinces. All in the national interest.
Nucifora is Schmidt’s agent of change. Ever since the defeat to Argentina in October 2015, the coach has had 2019 on his mind. The feeling of unfinished business was strong enough for him to resist the lure of home when his contract was up in 2017, while it also played a part in his decision to opt out of any involvement in that year’s Lions tour.
He has capped 34 new players during this cycle, but he has also lost leading men like Paul O’Connell, Jamie Heaslip and Jared Payne.
The qualification on residency of Bundee Aki and CJ Stander, among others, has strengthened his hand, as has the IRFU’s pursuit of Irish-qualified players in England.
They have beaten all of their prospective rivals for the tournament since 2015; making history in Cape Town and Chicago before breaking the record for wins in a row while securing the Grand Slam and a series win in Australia.
As a body of work, it is mightily impressive and will stand the test of time.
But there remains the sense that it will all have been in vain if Ireland fail to make it beyond the quarter-finals in Japan.
Ireland’s route to that point is straightforward enough.
Included in the four games this November is the eagerly-anticipated meeting with the world champion All Blacks, before the Six Nations takes up its usual slot as Ireland bid to retain their title for the first time since 2015.
The provincial season concludes in May and the players will get most of June off before coming back in for an earlier-than-normal pre-season.
After a month of training, they take on Italy, England and Wales before Schmidt finalises his 31-man squad. They then play the Welsh once again, before departing for Japan.
They know what to expect once there because of the cleverly-planned 2017 tour of The Land of the Rising Sun.
Their World Cup bases are yet to be decided on, but they will need to settle in quickly because their pool will be decided in the first five days of play when they take on Scotland and the hosts.
If they win both games, they’ll have one foot in the last eight with 21 days to play Russia and Samoa while preparing for a quarter-final meeting with either South Africa or New Zealand.
Those heavyweights meet in the second game of the tournament, so Schmidt and Co will have a good idea of what’s coming.
Despite making great strides in terms of squad depth, the key risk to Ireland’s bid remains injury. Conor Murray, Tadhg Furlong and, above all, Johnny Sexton are crucial to the cause.
At this stage, most of the places on the plane will be taken but there is still scope for a bolter to emerge.
Newly-signed Irish-qualified trio Will Addison, Billy Burns and Mike Haley all come into the picture this autumn, while Jean Kleyn and Jamison Gibson-Park qualify through residency on the eve of the tournament. Caelan Doris, Max Deegan and Paul Boyle have an outside shot if they can nail down starting spots at their provinces.
Logistics pose a problem too when it comes to selecting a squad, and versatility will be a key asset.
In 2015, Schmidt took two loosehead props and two scrum-halves, but he will have to consider the distance involved in calling a player up to Japan.
If they get past the quarter-final, they’ll be spending more than 50 nights in Japan and, so, Schmidt will have consider where and when to release the pressure valve.
Three years ago, the tension around the Irish coach was palpable in that final week and players could be forgiven for feeling some relief amidst their disappointment on the short flight home.
This tournament is much further away, so a balance needs to be struck.
All of this will come under careful consideration, as will the form of Ireland’s rivals.
Since the all-Rugby Championship lastfour in England, the balance of power appears to have shifted.
European money has weakened the Southern Hemisphere giants to a degree, but November will tell if the strides made in the last three years can be sustained.
A tough pool draw will remove one of England, Argentina and France from the quarter-final equation, but it is difficult to see anything other than the usual suspects making up the last-eight line-up.
Perhaps Japan can take an Irish or Scottish scalp, or Fiji can shock Australia or Wales, but the order looks pretty established at this remove.
New Zealand remain the top dogs, but they are not as strong as they were three years ago when they were led by a core of experienced players who will go down as all-time greats.
They can score tries for fun, and heaven help a team they get a run on, but Beauden Barrett’s goal-kicking has cost them games, their defence can be got at, and they struggle at times with the Andy Farrell-style rush defence.
If an opponent can stay in the fight there is evidence that their composure is lacking in the final quarters. They are justified favourites, but the chasing pack won’t be giving up hope just yet.
That pack contains a host of teams racked by doubt; whether it’s England’s loss of confidence in the last 12 months or South Africa, Australia and Argentina’s inconsistency. Wales and Scotland will be quietly confident, while France look stuck in sleeping-giant mode.
Given their consistency of performance and strong results, Ireland are justifiably held up as the most realistic threat to New Zealand’s supremacy at this point.
Much can change in the 365 days between now and the big kick-off in Yokohama, but a year out the omens are good for Ireland’s most successful World Cup of all time.