THE PUNTER
Wayne Bailey on why Enable can rule supreme for Frankie Dettori at Longchamp
IN VICTORIAN times, some of the more respectable homes were built with lengthy, straight driveways meaning the dwelling could be seen from the main road.
But mental institutions, or lunatic asylums as they were known then, were often hidden away behind a long, curved driveway, leaving the asylum and its inmates concealed. To be sent round the bend, therefore, was to be brought away to the madhouse, which was never a good thing in those days as they were tough places to be.
The business of betting can send you round the bend at times, and it always feels worse if a horse goes close but doesn’t win, than one that is a total flop.
Last week, I’d Arthur Kitt (11/4) and Pretty Pollyanna (6/4) both trade at short prices in-running before being beaten, with a hefty stake going down the drain on Arthur Kitt in particular.
Barristan The Bold (9/4), Ten Sovereigns (8/13) and some place money on my eachway bet helped to level the scales, but it would have been nice to add a decent chunk of money to my Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe betting pot this weekend (3.05 Longchamp, Sunday).
I always save up to have a decent bet on one of the year’s premier Flat races, although with Enable priced 11/10 at the time of writing, I’ll have to spend a few quid to try earn some. The main argument against betting on last year’s winner is that the stats show that most Arc winners will have had a decent preparation campaign in the run-up to the race.
Enable has had a number of setbacks following last year’s win, and has only been seen once when taking on Crystal Ocean in an all-weather Group Three at Kempton last month. Granted, it’s not an ideal route to the Arc but she passed her comeback test with flying colours, and appears to have retained all of her ability.
Fair enough, the stats say that horses having their second run of the season often struggle in this race, but I’d put forward the argument that her detractors are not comparing like with like.
Quite simply, Enable is a class apart from those other horses that tried to win with a similar preparation route in the past 10 years or so. John Gosden is sure to have her primed for this, and I’m convinced she can claim her eighth win in a row tomorrow in the hands of Frankie Dettori.
While I’m hoping for a British-trained winner at Longchamp, I’ll be happy if we have a French-trained win at Newmarket today, and Wind Chimes is a confident selection in the Group One Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (3.15), priced around 5/2.
Trained by André Fabre, the filly was a head-second to the talented colt Recoletos in the Group One Prix du Moulin de Longchamp last time, in what I’d describe as a career best.
She’s back against her own sex today and should prove hard to beat, although Karl Burke’s Laurens is a definite threat to the bet, and comes here fresh from a recent Group One Matron Stakes success at Leopardstown.
For something at a bigger price, consider backing Gifted Master, which was trading around 6/1 yesterday for the Group Three John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes at Ascot (3.0).
A big win in a competitive Stewards Cup at Goodwood this summer proved that the five-year-old still has what it takes at a high level, although he flopped last time out when fifth to today’s rival Limato in a Listed race at Newmarket.
I suspect he may have been a little weary after Goodwood however, and it’s worth giving him another chance to get back on track today at a decent price.
I’ve backed Limato a number of times down through the years and he’ll make his presence felt, although he’s become somewhat inconsistent as he gets a little older.
Quite simply, Enable is a class apart from those other horses that tried to win with a similar preparation route