Budget 2019 will put us all in the picture because an election isn’t far away

SOMEBODY in the Department of Finance has been busy framing budget books from years gone by. They have decorated the walls in the room named after the architect of modern Ireland, T K Whitaker, with all the budgets from 2000 to 2018. Each cover draws a memory:

:: Budget 2000 – The great giveaway.

:: Budget 2004 – Decentralisation.

:: Budget 2009 – Medical card furore.

Even the supplementary austerity budget of 2009 features on the wall, in the room where Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe revealed last Friday he’d found an extra €1bn in corporation tax.

A gap is left in the display for Budget 2019, which begs the question: What will it be remembered for?

Already there have been suggestions that it will be an “election budget”.

There is definitely a little something for everybody in there, even though many will fail to notice it in their pay packets.

Fianna Fáil has been very tame in the build-up to today’s announcement, which many see as a sign its focus is elsewhere. Confidence and supply talks will begin any day now.

Both Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin know they will be difficult; probably too difficult.

Grassroots members of the main Opposition party will struggle to pull on the green jersey once more if Mr Martin decides to extend the deal.

And Mr Varadkar realises his good opinion poll figures will be sustainable only if the Government starts to make inroads in the housing and health crises. Little progress is visible to the casual observer.

The odds on an election some time in the coming months are high. It would be certain were it not for Brexit.

Mr Donohoe would like his budget efforts to be fairly unremarkable. The tagline ‘Prudent Paschal’ fits with the narrative he would like associated with this budget.

But many of the country’s top economists believe this tagline is fallacy.

Without doubt, he doesn’t engage in the level of auction politics we saw in the Charlie McCreevy years.

But had that €1bn in corporation tax not appeared, we’d be borrowing money in order to set up the €500m Rainy Day Fund.

Ultimately Fine Gael would like to get out the other side of the Budget without any hiccups or unexpected blunders – such as Brian Lenihan’s disastrous move on the medical cards.

The election isn’t too far away, and it won’t be won on Budget Day – but it could easily be lost if Mr Donohoe doesn’t frame it properly.