Election games have begun as FG-FF deal now in injury time

WHEN Enda Kenny confirmed his decision to step down as Fine Gael leader, he scanned the room for his would-be successors and declared: “Let the games begin.”

It sparked an election race that Leo Varadkar had subtly sewn up long before the outgoing Taoiseach fired the starting gun.

Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe could have muttered the same sentence as he finished up what could turn out to be his final Budget day speech yesterday.

But, of course, he doesn’t want to leave just yet, so instead the minister concluded by telling us that he had offered people a “responsible Budget for a modern and caring Ireland that aims to be at the centre of a changing world”.

In any case, the election games have been under way for some time. The Budget was, in fact, just another episode in the battle between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil for middle Ireland.

Last August, Mr Varadkar wrote to Micheál Martin asking him to engage in a review of the confidence and supply arrangement with a view to extending it to summer 2020.

He said his Government couldn’t function “if it is living on borrowed time”.

Well, as of midnight last night the Fine Gael/Independent coalition is on life support. Fianna Fáil can pull the plug at any moment and still claim to have fulfilled its three-budget promise.

The potential remains for Mr Martin to breath new life into the deal – but few in his own party want to see that happen.

A logic has been put forward that it would be unwise to have a general election before the Brexit talks conclude, but there is growing optimism in Government that a breakthrough is close. Without the threat of a no-deal Brexit, there’s absolutely no reason why either side should continue with ‘new politics’.

Leo Varadkar and Paschal Donohoe are sick to the back teeth of dealing with the Independent Alliance. And every day Fianna Fáil continues its civil marriage with Fine Gael leaves it open to attack from Sinn Féin.

But it’s not that straight forward either. For all the good news that was pushed out of Leinster House yesterday, those who subscribe to ‘prudent politics’ know the current economic success isn’t long-term.

If the original boom that was squandered by Fianna Fáil was caused by an over-reliance on the construction sector, this one is equally propped up by corporation tax. Around 7pc of the country’s total tax take now comes from just 10 multinational companies. If even one of them left, we’re in trouble.

Having rejected the Taoiseach’s invitation to talks during the recess, Mr Martin wasted no time phoning his counterpart after the Budget.

For once, he managed to get out ahead of Mr Varadkar. Those in Fine Gael were quick to point out that the Fianna Fáil leader alerted the media to his interest in talks before touching base with the Taoiseach. This sort of ‘game playing’ is something Mr Martin is forever criticising the Government for – but this is real now.

The next few weeks will be as much about claiming victories from the now-defunct confidence and supply deal as it will about negotiating a new one.

Hours before Mr Martin’s phone call, it was Barry Cowen who effectively signalled the end of the relationship. He began his Dáil contribution by comparing Fine Gael to the Tories and seamlessly went on to describe how the true character of Sinn Féin was revealed after the last election “like a tide going out, revealing who was swimming naked”.

But even before Mr Cowen was on his feet, Paschal Donohoe (courtesy of the Fine Gael backroom staff ) had managed to send out an email to members along with a prepared video. “We are more secure as a country and better able to care for people and families.

“We will take advantage of the opportunities and meet the challenges that come our way in the years ahead,” he said in the dispatch.

To be fair, very few people believed this ‘temporary little arrangement’ would last three budgets – but in Leinster House, at least, even fewer believe it can be extended.

Perhaps like the special Vat rate for the hospitality sector, the confidence and supply arrangement has served its purpose.