Martina Devlin

Theresa May’s Plan B hinges on timing – but the central issue of the Border won’t be solved just because EU grants an extension

THE Border may be invisible right now but it casts a long shadow – indeed, it should have its own place at the Brexit negotiating table. Preferably with a dummy rocket launcher on the seat as a visual reminder to all deal-makers of what’s at stake.

Nobody who lives near the Border or crosses it regularly underestimates its incendiary potential. The only people who have a carefree attitude are Tory hard Brexiteers, a race of people bred in the bone to regard death and destruction in Ireland with indifference.

In the not so distant past, a securitised Border meant soldiers bristling with weapons, helicopters buzzing overhead, watchtowers, barricades, vehicle and body checks, lengthy delays, an atmosphere of danger – and that was just at the official crossing points.

Unofficial crossing points, multiple in number because the Border is almost 500km long and porous, were spiked, cratered and blocked. They were transformed into roads to nowhere, to the dismay and sometimes the fury of local populations, some of whom felt provoked to retaliate.

Conservative Party attempts to compare the Irish Border, with its numerous crossing points, to the boundary between Denmark and Sweden are not just self-serving, but inaccurate.

In the not-so-distant past, a hard Border stoked tensions and provoked attacks. People died at the Border and because of it. No one is crying wolf or exaggerating the threat: there’s a clear and present danger of violence reigniting if a hard Border is reintroduced.

That’s effectively what Leo Varadkar said publicly to his fellow European leaders at a summit in Brussels this week. For the Taoiseach to use the occasion to be so explicit is a sign of the Irish Government’s mounting anxiety about a no-deal Brexit.

Even so, I can’t help suspecting Theresa May has a Plan B, and it hinges on timing. She wants a Brexit arrangement with Europe because she recognises the damage inflicted by no deal.

But she needs to keep the DUP onside until agreement is reached. She knows the DUP won’t accept any compromises she’s forced to make and that the party will withdraw its support – but if she gets the logistics right, some Scottish nationalist and Labour MPs may help her nudge it over the line.

There are a lot of ifs and maybes in the frame – it’s gangbusters brinkmanship. But it might just be possible.

Does Britain’s Labour Party have a plan? It’s that the Tory minority government will collapse, possibly in December or January when Mrs May seeks Westminster’s approval for a deal, and a general election will be called.

Meanwhile, Tánaiste Simon Coveney has been a steady and intelligent voice in the Brexit dialogue. Involving him in negotiations on behalf of the Government for a new confidence and supply arrangement with Fianna Fáil is unhelpful – he has his hands full already. This is not in Ireland’s best interests, Mr Varadkar.

As for the Tory hardliners, focused on their own naked power-grab they choose to acknowledge no negative consequences to a crash-out Brexit. But their perspective is Henley and Surrey Heath, where their constituents are based. Not the standpoint of Fermanagh-Cavan, Tyrone-Monaghan or Derry-Donegal.

Their wilful blindness allows them to continue lying to people with highly emotive ‘take back control’ slogans and criticism of the Good Friday Agreement – which they present as an obstacle to progress rather than a life-saving treaty. This attitude risks delivering a securitised demarcation line between Northern Ireland and the Republic that’s a target for dissident republicans.

Any retreat from the Good Friday Agreement is an enormous error; despite Stormont’s silence for almost two years, the treaty works. It delivered peace. But Boris Johnson takes more interest in Azerbaijan’s chances of winning the world tiddlywinks competition than in preserving peace in Ireland.

Here’s a man who claims he was misled over the backstop. This, from the misleader-in-chief with his lies about Britain being millions of pounds better off if it left the EU – now it finds itself facing a £39bn bill. Clearly, Mr Johnson is a man who doesn’t do details. But whether we like it or not, his jingoistic fantasies have attracted support. Brexit has exposed deep divisions in Britain.

At least the DUP is consistent. Its members are comfortably situated in 1912 Ulster Covenant-era politics. For now, the party has the whip hand over Mrs May’s fragile administration, but that cannot last indefinitely. Sooner or later, she will have to disappoint someone, because the only sure thing in this uncertain world is her inability to please everyone. The DUP may well be the dissatisfied party. No wonder it is mistrustful of what it regards as the parent state, even while insisting that never the twain shall part.

Arlene Foster wants a “sensible Brexit” but a border between the North and Britain is her “blood-red line”. Sammy Wilson says a no-deal scenario is “probably inevitable”. But who knows? Mrs May eventually shaking off the albatross clinging to her neck may be the most inevitable scenario of all.

If she cuts a Brexit deal disliked by the DUP, the party will switch off her life support, requiring the prime minister to look elsewhere to push it through the Mother of Parliaments.

She may succeed, she may fail. Watching her, you have to applaud her persistence, even as it’s apparent that the Chequers proposal is going nowhere.

Granted, a no-deal Brexit looks more likely than at any stage to date, but usefully ambiguous language might facilitate a last-minute agreement. That tool has to be handled with care, however: the December pact, now hotly disputed, relied on creative ambiguity which quickly came home to roost over the backstop.

In the interim, Ireland is planning for the worst-case option, with a recruitment campaign under way to hire an additional 600 customs officials. Only one-third will be in place by March, according to the reply to a Dáil question put by Fianna Fáil’s Michael McGrath to the Finance Minister. So, we’re preparing for Britain to crash out without actually being ready for it.

Meanwhile, the clock is ticking towards March 29, when Britain leaves the EU and enters a transition period.

Afterwards, it has two years to negotiate trade deals. Despite Mr Johnson’s conviction that his super powers will make trade agreements effortless, such transactions are not concluded quickly. The arrangement between the EU and Canada took seven years to strike. It’s why the EU is offering Mrs May more time – but an extension doesn’t solve the central issue of the Border.

Sooner or later, Mrs May will have to disappoint someone – the only sure thing in this uncertain world is her inability to please everyone