Let’s face reality – delay does not mean Brexit will simply go away

‘HOWEVER much we wish, we’re not going to wake up to find the last two and a half years have been a bad dream. The UK is leaving the European Union and today we still don’t know how or under what conditions.”

The comments were made by Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney in the Dáil – even as news coming through from the London parliament strongly reinforced the view that Brexit will now be delayed beyond the March 29 deadline.

Those words remind us that a Brexit delay does not mean the EU-UK divorce process is suddenly called off. We are still very probably looking at our nearest neighbour, and second-largest trading partner, leaving the European Union. We still do not know what the departure terms will be. Even relatively benign separation terms will never be as good as the UK staying in the EU.

There are now two likely scenarios surrounding the duration of a delay. First is that the delay will very probably be a matter of weeks, if UK Prime Minister Theresa May can somehow defy the odds and get a majority for a tweaked version of the Brexit deal she agreed at a special EU leaders’ summit on November 25 last.

A second delay scenario occurs if Mrs May’s updated deal is again defeated by parliament next month. It also implies that the Westminster parliament then tells the prime minister to apply for an extension. In such an eventuality, the delay could be for longer – possibly anything up to two years.

Many Irish people, and EU supporters across the UK, cling to the hope of a second vote overturning the devastating result of that original Brexit referendum on June 23, 2016. The prospects of this are improving – but such a reversal still remains very much a long-shot.

Mrs May’s Brexit deal suffered a defeat of historic proportions, of 432 votes against to just 230 votes in favour, on January 15 last. But astonishingly, there are signals emerging from Westminster that she might be able to reverse that.

Statements by Tory arch-Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg yesterday suggested that he and some of his colleagues are beginning to come around to Mrs May’s long-standing threat – that they may lose Brexit altogether to a long delay and uncertain future if they do not back her tweaked deal.

For both Mr Rees-Mogg and Mrs May, much will turn on the cosmetic value of additional guarantees which would emerge in the interim from Brussels. The EU is determined that the central Withdrawal Agreement cannot be touched.

But Brussels can resort to many lawyerly devices to put a convincing legal gloss on political guarantees. These could offer a face-saving climbdown for all sides. With Mrs May’s deal ratified, a delay of weeks would suffice to allow necessary legislation to be put in place, with an accompanying standstill transition period up to December 31, 2020. Any way you look at it, delay is better than crash-out. But Brexit drags on.