Switzerland dilemma as McCarthy ponders if point will do
Manager will have to decide when to gamble with big win more important than preserving unbeaten record
WHAT do you do when a draw is not enough? That is the question for Ireland now, after a Saturday struggle that has removed the option of qualifying for Euro 2020 on the strength of an unbeaten record.
Mick McCarthy’s side need one win from their remaining two matches to be sure of a place in the finals.
On paper, that’s a straightforward permutation but in practice that’s going to be slightly more complicated.
The experienced manager is well used to the noise that comes with this job and likes to remind people that he is the one that has to make the decisions.
A positive spin on the situation post-Tbilisi is that Ireland would have taken this position at the beginning of the group, if not at the beginning of last week with Denmark’s win in Copenhagen far from ideal.
McCarthy said as much upon arrival in Switzerland. “Everybody would have taken this,” he said. “The peddlers of doom and gloom will say we’ve no chance of winning. I don’t get that.”
Implications
One win is enough, but a loss in Geneva would have implications for the Denmark game. So this is the situation facing McCarthy.
Ireland are 90 minutes away from a place in the Euro 2020 finals.
They are going to the home of a Switzerland side that is under excruciating pressure following a defeat in Denmark on Saturday.
A side that has played the best football in the group but showed a mental frailty under pressure.
They were 3-0 up at home to Denmark and drew 3-3. Comfortable in Ireland until a late concession to David McGoldrick. Frustrated by Kasper Schmeichel’s brilliance in Copenhagen until another late lapse.
Switzerland are serial qualifiers for major tournaments and still know that wins from their remaining three games will be enough. But if they fail to win this match, they need favours elsewhere.
Therefore, it’s probably not as straightforward as suggesting that Ireland should just enter tomorrow night’s game with a plan to ‘go for it.’
It’s going to have to be more nuanced than that. If Ireland can manage a draw, then it basically puts Denmark through to the finals, presuming they can beat Gibraltar in their penultimate match. They would arrive in Dublin with nothing to play for aside from a result that might help their seeding. Italy in Lille springs to mind.
Therefore, Ireland face something of a dilemma tomorrow night if they can manage to stay competitive in the game heading into the final quarter.
It means that there is likely to be caution in the strategy again. “A point would be fabulous in Geneva,” said McCarthy, speaking before the Danish triumph.
He must now mull over ways that a one-point target could be twisted to three.
START AARON CONNOLLY
David McGoldrick is definitely out of the game, and that means there’s a seriously strong argument for throwing the Brighton teenager in from the outset after the impact he made on Saturday off the bench. Yes, he did have the advantage of coming on against tired opponents, and he did miss the chances that came his way – the 19-year-old would have preferred them on his favoured right foot.
However, he asked questions of the Georgian back line and a striking aspect of last month’s game with the Swiss was how they were quicker and stronger.
Connolly is short, but he has shown with his club that he relishes the task of making life difficult for big defenders who would actually prefer a physical battle with a bruiser like James Collins.
McCarthy spoke in positive terms about starting Connolly, although the words were open to interpretation. “Absolutely, yeah. You’ve seen him come on and do what he’s done,” he said. “There’s always that, ‘Well, why didn’t he start’.
“Well, when you’re at the last 10 or 12 minutes, somebody who comes on like that can run in behind. He might not have played as well from the start in a rough and tumble game. But we’ve seen what he can do and we might have to have a bit of help with him. He certainly won’t be a lone runner. He’s had a really good cameo appearance and I’ve no doubt he’s ready to start.”
CHANGE THE WINGERS
James McClean and Callum Robinson were ineffective in Tbilisi. McClean’s performances are now coming under fierce scrutiny, but short memories are in evidence when it’s argued that he has offered nothing to this campaign. McCarthy will remember last month when the determination of the Stoke player shoved a Swiss opponent off the ball and sent in the cross for McGoldrick’s leveller.
He’s not in good form at the moment, though, and while his relentless energy and battery power can fend off opposition arguments, there’s now an argument that McClean could be most effective as an impact sub to rattle cages if Ireland needed a frenzied finish. Stephen Hunt spoke well on ‘Off The Ball’ over the weekend about how the direct McClean operates in straight lines offensively and isn’t always a
great help to the midfielders when they have the ball.
Callum Robinson could be more vulnerable, however, much as it’s possible he could be switched centrally to support Connolly if there was a change of shape. Bringing in Alan Judge, Callum O’Dowda or relocating Jeff Hendrick are the alternatives.
MIX UP MIDFIELD
This would be a radical departure. McCarthy was asked on Saturday if he would play two up front to accommodate Connolly. “Or one up with one in behind. Alan Judge has played there so we will see,” he replied. In that scenario, something would have to give with the midfield three.
Glenn Whelan is his tried and trusted but switching Hendrick wide or sacrificing Conor Hourihane is another angle. Hourihane and Hendrick had spells where they got ahead of the ball and left Whelan exposed. But there were also passages where they came deep to get involved and couldn’t get Ireland out of trouble. It was a disjointed display.
Alan Browne operates as an aggressive central attacking midfielder for Preston and he has clearly moved up McCarthy’s pecking order. Given the Swiss physicality, he’s likely to be ahead of the technically proficient Josh Cullen or Jack Byrne in the roll call.
These are the factors that are likely to influence the match strategy. Saturday was the chance to throw caution to the wind. Against a tougher opponent with the pace to pull teams out of shape, attacking ambition will have to be tempered.
Expect Ireland to hang in there and look for a sucker punch.