It’s time to be brave. Moral victories are no longer good enough
Schmidt must have a cut against New Zealand and allow players off leash – it’s their only hope
THIS TIME next week the Joe Schmidt era will probably be over. The question is whether the Irish manager wants to go out with a bang or a whimper. Ireland’s best performances in this tournament, against Scotland and Samoa, were based around meticulously executed tenman rugby which overpowered the opposition. But that on its own won’t be enough against an All Blacks team able to match Ireland physically.
The argument that a limited game did the job against them last year doesn’t hold water. We will be dealing with a very different New Zealand team next Saturday. Literally. Only six starters from the defeat in the Aviva made the All Blacks’ first XV against South Africa.
It’s clear New Zealand viewed that narrow defeat as a cue for extensive reconstruction. By contrast, Ireland may well have 12 of the same starters in action six days from now, 13 should Bundee Aki manage to wriggle out of a suspension.
In which case the only changes may be Conor Murray, injured then, coming in for Kieran Marmion and Iain Henderson replacing Devin Toner.
This stick-with-what-you-know policy follows a season where Ireland were hammered by England and Wales in the Six Nations, suffered a record defeat by the English in Twickenham and were gravely embarrassed in the group stages by Japan. We take a different attitude to the All Blacks about these things.
Whether Schmidt’s ‘it’ll be all right on the night’ attitude displays the virtues of loyalty or its drawbacks will become clear on Saturday. Yet there is one case where it’s imperative that he overcome his natural conservatism.
If Ireland are to trouble the All Blacks in Tokyo they must pose a threat behind the scrum. For all the pack’s virtues, victory in Dublin was actually sealed by a spectacular Jacob Stockdale try after one of those moments of individual genius no defence can legislate against.
We’ll need the same kind of thing in the quarter-final and, with Stockdale’s form having dipped, Jordan Larmour is the best bet to provide it. Larmour’s performance on Saturday, when he beat 12 players in 17 carries, laid on Johnny Sexton’s first try with a deft inside pass and bagged a five-pointer himself, made an unimpeachable case for his inclusion the next day.
The only reason to pick Rob Kearney ahead of Larmour is because Kearney almost always gets picked ahead of Larmour. And that’s no reason at all. The youngster has been knocking on the door long enough and the clamour can no longer be ignored.
Forget Kearney’s vaunted superiority under the high ball. Larmour was flawless in this area on a wet day against Scotland, Kearney hasn’t exactly been rock solid this year and Richie Mo’Unga will hardly spend the day hoisting garryowens at Ireland.
The All Blacks will test us in more dangerous ways and their expansive approach should provide opportunities for Larmour to embark on the broken field runs which are his speciality. There’s a lot to be said for picking the squad’s most elusive runner against a team prone to high tackling in a tournament where refs are show
They must strive to emulate Japan and really go for it. Picking Larmour would be a significant step in that direction
ing little mercy. An All Blacks red card could change everything.
We know what we’ll get from Rob Kearney and it will be grand but it will not be enough. Going down the tried-and-tested route at full-back is an admission of creative impotence. This is a time to be brave.
Logically speaking, Ireland are doomed to defeat. The inclusion of Larmour ahead of Kearney, and the on-form Tadhg Beirne ahead of the struggling Peter O’Mahony, could add an invaluable touch of the unexpected.
Ireland need to roll the dice because they’re on the verge of another colossal World Cup failure. Defeat on Saturday will mean this campaign has been the type of disaster we were assured wouldn’t happen again.
A first ever semi-final place was the target. If Ireland fall short it won’t matter how the team loses against the All Blacks. Attempts to turn narrow defeat into some kind of heroic last stand will merely confirm the opinion of those who believe Ireland are to moral what New Zealand are to actual victories.
The Schmidt era was supposed to have put an end to that. Defeat of any kind should spark a serious inquest into what’s gone wrong in the 11 months since that victory over the All Blacks. Since then there have been three defeats by tier one opposition and one by a tier two team.
Limbering
Guys limbering up to declare that even though we lost Joe Schmidt’s legacy is secure should think again. A second World Cup flop would constitute a major blot on the New Zealander’s escutcheon.
There’s no point pretending otherwise. A year ago Ireland were probably the best team in the world so failure to make the semis would mark a staggering decline in a short space of time. It would raise troubling questions about the team’s preparation.
The opposite is also true. Should Ireland overcome the odds on Saturday, the In Joe We Trust brigade who insist this year’s Six Nations was a massive exercise in misdirection, suggest all kinds of special plays will be unfurled in the knockout stages and maintain the All Blacks style of play suits Ireland, can say: “I told you so.”
Next Saturday we’ll find out the truth. The truth can hurt but it can also set you free. I hope it’ll be the latter for Ireland but fear it’ll be the former. They must strive to emulate Japan and really go for it. Picking Jordan Larmour would be a significant step in that direction.
Let’s not die wondering.