Stage is set for the next government – and it won’t involve Fine Gael or Sinn Féin
THE composition of the next government is beginning to take shape and it is looking increasingly likely that it will involve Fianna Fáil, Labour, the Greens and perhaps some Independents – but not Fine Gael, or Sinn Féin.
For Fine Gael, nearly a decade in power is clearly taking its toll, both on the party itself and the voters whose unhappiness was apparent in the four by-election campaigns that played out in recent weeks. Yes, turnout was low and, yes, governments do not do well in by-elections.
But there is some concern within the party that it was not as transfer-friendly as other parties. This was partly why Verona Murphy was beaten into third in Wexford and Emer Higgins lost out to Sinn Féin’s Mark Ward in Dublin Mid-West.
All governments become stale and this one, composed of many of the same faces we’ve been used to since 2011, has arguably passed its sell-by date. Its authority is weak and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has not energised Fine Gael in a way many had hoped.
Meanwhile, Sinn Féin will be buoyed by its resurgence in Dublin Mid-West, where a by-election win was a tonic for the embattled Mary Lou McDonald, who is facing into a Westminster election in 10 days’ time, possibly fresh Assembly elections in the new year and a general election sometime after that.
“We thought we stamped them out,” one Fianna Fáil TD said ruefully at the weekend. They haven’t gone away, you know.
But Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin has staked his political career on never doing business with Sinn Féin and cannot retreat from that position without a massive revolt internally.
So Mr Martin is instead looking to Labour and the Greens to make him Taoiseach next year. He is certainly doing a better job of wooing them than Mr Varadkar, who has taken an antagonistic approach towards Labour’s Brendan Howlin and the Green Party leader Eamon Ryan in recent times.
Last month, Mr Varadkar chided Mr Howlin for demanding that the raising of the retirement age to 67 be postponed. Labour was moving away from a policy it supported in government “for electoral reasons”, he said. The Taoiseach’s former Cabinet colleague was not impressed.
“Look at Leo, he pissed all over Brendan on pension policy,” said one senior Fianna Fáil TD of that spicy exchange. “He’s done the same to Eamon Ryan.”
Mr Varadkar regularly snipes at the Greens in the Dáil. “They don’t just disagree with you, they’re also a better person than you,” he once said. Mr Ryan is equally unimpressed by Mr Varadkar’s approach to climate action, saying recently: “We can’t get Fine Gael out quickly enough.”
Mr Varadkar’s cheap Dáil jibes will do little to engender any sense of goodwill when it comes to negotiating a programme for government.
By contrast, Mr Martin has been subtly wooing Labour and the Greens. “Micheál is working well with Howlin and got on well with Eamon in Cabinet,” said the senior Fianna Fáil TD.
“You might need a few Independents as well, but that will all happen afterwards. There won’t be an alliance to take out Fine Gael in the election. They’re doing a pretty good job of that themselves.”