Pharma exports to US ‘to top €24bn’ but Trump trade tensions pose risks

IRELAND’S pharma exports to the US will top €24bn in a record year for the sector, but the volatility of the Trump administration poses a risk to that growth, a Dublin business conference has been told.

“Exports at record levels from the biopharma sector represent a remarkable achievement,” said Ibec CEO Danny McCoy.

“Given the wider political and economic uncertainties from factors like Brexit, this is even more impressive.”

Recruitment firm Ardlinn, which co-hosted the event with Ibec, said the number of people working in the pharma sector here had doubled in the past two decades to well above 40,000.

It said pharma exports to the US appeared on course for further growth in 2020.

“That said, we cannot be complacent and must take steps to mitigate risks for this crucial market,” said Ardlinn director Áine Brolly.

Dan O’Brien, chief economist at the Institute of International and European

Affairs, told the event that Donald Trump’s penchant for picking fights with trading partners could rattle Irish trade in 2020.

“As a country which conducts more pharma trade with the US than anywhere else in the EU, we are the most exposed European region and, as a result, vulnerable to potential transatlantic trade conflicts,” Mr O’Brien said.

“As we close in on the upcoming US election, we should be cognisant of potential trading volatility, having seen Donald Trump punish both China and Canada this year. And we know he is no great fan of the EU,” he added.

While US-Irish bilateral relations are strong, he said, “we cannot ignore the prospect of the US administration making moves to bring some of this trade back home”.

The €24bn forecast for 2019 is based on CSO figures, showing that pharma exports to the US by September were already near €16.8bn, the total 2018 value for such exports.