Showing their hand: Where does your TD stand on the election of a new Taoiseach?
AFORTNIGHT on from the last few seismic results of Election 2020 pouring in and the potential governments are starting to take shape. Last week’s first sitting of the Dáil did flush out some positions. But there’s still a lot to play for. The Social Democrats were the big movers at the weekend, clarifying their position. Here’s where your local TD stands on the election of the Taoiseach and formation of the new government.
FINE GAEL
Acting Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is still insisting his party is heading for opposition and will only be involved in a coalition as a last resort. Outgoing ministers are saying there is an obligation on Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil to do the running on forming a government. However, Varadkar is holding exploratory talks with Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin this week, possibly tomorrow.
FIANNA FÁIL
Martin remains favourite to become the next Taoiseach. Following his vituperative and iconic exchanges with Mary Lou McDonald in the Dáil last week, an alliance with Sinn Féin is off the table. His only realistic route to Government Buildings is via a coalition with Fine Gael and others, either the Green Party or a group of Independents. He got the support of four Independents in the vote for Taoiseach, bringing him up to 41 votes. Fine Gael ministers are also ruling out a reverse confidence and supply arrangement, this time for a Fianna Fáil minority government.
SINN FÉIN
Mary Lou McDonald’s negotiating team is continuing with talks with smaller parties and Independents. The party is also having rallies around the country. Sinn Féin’s Pádraig Mac Lochlainn accepted yesterday it will take two of the three larger parties to form an actual government with a majority that can implement its policies. Ruled out by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, McDonald’s only remaining option is to pursue a minority left-led coalition, which appears a bridge too far. McDonald got 45 votes last week but needs to add the Greens and Social Democrats to keep the momentum going.
GREEN PARTY
The Greens continue to talk to everybody, meeting with Sinn Féin today and Fianna Fáil on Wednesday. Eamon Ryan’s party is spoken of as the most likely potential partner of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
LABOUR PARTY
Going through its own leadership contest, Labour is sitting this one out. Leadership con
tenders Alan Kelly and Aodhán Ó Riordáin also agree the party is going into opposition.
SOCIAL DEMOCRATS
The party’s position shifted substantially over the weekend, moving it closer to staying out of coalition entirely. Róisín Shortall and Catherine Murphy’s party ruled out going into a Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael grand coalition – but didn’t rule them out individually. Yet their six TDs know Fianna Fáil is ruling out Sinn Féin and Fine Gael won’t back a Fianna Fáil minority government. The Soc Dems have a meeting scheduled with Fianna Fáil this week and are open to meeting Fine Gael.
PEOPLE BEFORE PROFIT
The alliance of Solidarity-People Before Profit-Rise, headed by Richard Boyd Barrett, with Bríd Smith, Gino Kenny, Paul Murphy and Mick Barry, voted for McDonald. But the support is contingent on not going in with Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael.
INDEPENDENTS BACKING SINN FÉIN AND MARY LOU MCDONALD
Left-wing Independents Thomas Pringle from Donegal,
Joan Collins from Dublin South-Central and Catherine Connolly from Galway West, also rowed in behind McDonald in the Dáil.
INDEPENDENTS BACKING FIANNA FÁIL AND MICHEÁL MARTIN
Sean Canney from Galway East, Noel Grealish from Galway West, Michael McNamara from Clare and Cathal Berry from Kildare South voted for Martin last week. Canney, previously a minister, also voted for Varadkar.
INDEPENDENTS WITH
NO PREVIOUS PARTY AFFILIATION
Beyond that, there are plenty of Independent TDs still sitting on the fence. Michael Collins from Cork South-West, Michael Fitzmaurice from Roscommon, Marian Harkin from Sligo-Leitrim and Matt Shanahan from Waterford seem to be up for grabs. Collins voted against Varadkar for Taoiseach but abstained on Martin, McDonald and Ryan. Fitzmaurice voted against Ryan for Taoiseach but abstained on the rest. Harkin and Shanahan abstained on all four candidates.
INDEPENDENTS FROM FIANNA FÁIL GENE POLL
Michael and Danny Healy-Rae from Kerry, Mattie McGrath from Tipperary and Richard O’Donoghue from Limerick County have past Fianna Fáil ties, which make them targets for Martin to seek support. But they’ll come at a price. The Healy-Rae brothers voted against Varadkar and Ryan for Taoiseach, but abstained on Martin and McDonald. McGrath and O’Donoghue voted against Varadkar, but abstained on the other three.
INDEPENDENTS FROM FINE GAEL GENE POOL
Michael Lowry from Tipperary, Denis Naughten from Roscommon, Peter Fitzpatrick from Louth and Verona Murphy from Wexford were all previously in the Fine Gael camp, before leaving for differing reasons. They all abstained on all four Taoiseach nominees.
INDEPENDENTS FROM SINN FÉIN GENE POOL
Aontú leader Peadar Tóibín from Meath West heads up his own party but he’s a sole trader in the Dáil. He and Carol Nolan from Laois-Offaly both left Sinn Féin over the abortion referendum as they hold pro-life views. However, relations between Tóibín and Sinn Féin are bad and Nolan gave no indication of warmth so neither are backing McDonald. Tóibín voted against Varadkar for Taoiseach and didn’t vote on the other three candidates, while Nolan voted against Varadkar and Ryan but abstained on Martin and McDonald.