Too many Green gains could spark an all-out rebellion in FG and FF
THE squeaky wheel more usually gets the grease. It’s an unlovely political metaphor and the Green Party politicians and activists will not be happy at being described as “squeaky”.
It’s just a way of saying that their political dilemmas and sensitivities have commanded much attention for the past week. The result is that we risk forgetting the other parties in this triangle – Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil – which have their own base of loyal supporters to keep on board.
“The dilemma we face is to satisfy the Greens’ demands on all their core issues, especially climate change, while also not alienating our own rural support base,” one person close to the drawn-out coalition process told the Irish Independent.
We know that the Green Party is replete with tension and potential divisions on engaging in coalition. And we are keenly aware that whatever government programme might be agreed has to be ratified by the high bar of the two-thirds of the Green Party membership voting by postal ballot.
This clearly strengthens Green leader Eamon Ryan’s hand in any talks. But if that hand is over-played he will again be reminded that he is not the only one with members, activists, and mavericks.
Fine Gael definitely gets the easier ride here – though everything is relative. Its weighted-voting process ratification process gives 50pc of the say to TDs, senators and MEPs, 25pc to constituency delegates, 15pc to councillors, and 10pc to the national executive. That gives more than a sporting chance to Leo Varadkar to get a government programme ratified in his own house.
The Fianna Fáil story is much harder. In Ireland BC – that is before coronavirus – it would have been a one-member/one-vote simple majority at a special ard fheis. Usually that would be a hard day for the staff at HQ and the leadership team – but swiftly the job would be done.
For weeks now, Micheál Martin and his advisers have been pondering a way around the impossibility of holding a gathering of between 2,000 and 3,000 delegates at a venue like Citywest on the southern edge of Dublin city. There has been much talk of an informal rolling consultation process, with the leadership team talking to all the party’s 279 city and county councillors.
Soundings have not been good from those self-same councillors. A fortnight ago this newspaper reported grave disappointment being expressed among the councillors in the leader’s Cork base.
This week we hear rumblings of discontent from Fianna Fáil councillors in Donegal and elsewhere. The mood has not been improved by the weekend’s Red C opinion poll findings in the ‘Business Post’, which showed Fine Gael soaring away on 35pc support on the back of well-received crisis management.
Worse again, Sinn Féin, which looks like “owning the opposition” when post-coronavirus bills must be paid, is doing very nicely on 27pc.
That’s even before a government begins to oppose necessary spending cuts to mop up.
Let’s recall that in the recent General Election all three parties scored pretty close to one another in the early 20s on vote share.
An interesting grace note here, as yet unexplored, is that Ryan has confirmed the Green Party’s members will have a postal vote. Martin has signalled that this would be cumbersome and time-consuming for Fianna Fáil. But can Martin avoid a postal vote if the Greens are doing it?
What is clear here is that all three parties must negotiate with one eye permanently on not just their own support base – but that of the other two parties. Talks finally begin tomorrow – just one day short of three months since the election day on February 8 – with trust in very short supply.
But to borrow a famous phrase from the 1998 Good Friday talks, trust must somehow creep in here.
It has been a slow and often fractious process to get this far. It is clear that the gaps between all parties are so considerable, and that they each have major supporter sensitivities to be taken on board, that weeks of talks are required.
But outside the Leinster House bubble, people are worried about all sorts. It is time to hurry up and make a deal.
But can Martin avoid a postal vote if Greens are holding one?