Bid to tackle pension time-bomb thwarted by impact of virus
Many people will be left wondering where has all the money gone – again
RTÉ broadcaster Joe Duffy raised an important point about the financial cost of the coronavirus for many people at the weekend. He told the ‘Sunday Independent’ he had lost his pension for the second time in 10 years.
As a contractor to RTÉ he isn’t part of the State broadcaster’s pension scheme and therefore puts into his own pension, and whatever is there is there when he retires.
Only 56pc of people in employment have pension coverage and the impact of Covid-19 on pensions may be a lot deeper than the duration of the lockdown.
Mason Hayes Curran partner and Pensions Council member Stephen Gillick told a webinar in March the virus would knock restoration of the pension age off the agenda. He could see the issue of restoring it to 65 being “parked”.
Taking it back to 65 would cost an estimated €620m per year. When the dust settles on coronavirus, and the Department of Finance takes a look at the bill, it is hard to see the reversal happening any time soon.
Perhaps even more significantly for people’s pensions is Mr Gillick’s other prediction, that the Government scheme for auto-enrolment, planned for 2022, won’t go ahead as planned. Again, it looks like he will be right. Despite the high numbers in the economy without pension provision, it is hard to see employers, employees and the Government finding the financial resources to put the plan into action.
Many people who have defined contribution pension schemes or simply manage their own pension contributions, will be wondering where has all the money gone – again. Those on defined benefit schemes have a greater safety net, but only if the pension fund can continue to meet liabilities as they fall due.
In seems inevitable that those looking after their own pensions will have been heavily exposed to the stock market ahead of this year’s Covid crash. For some it was about picking up the pieces from the last crash and equities are seen as an effective, albeit more risky, way of doing that.
Despite the overall bull run of recent years, 2018 was a disastrous year for the stock market and equity pension investments. But last year saw bumper returns, making it the best year for investment in a decade. The value of the average Irish active managed fund increased by one-fifth with a return of 20.6pc.
Following the Covid crash not only is that 20pc gone but, according to Rubicon Investment Consulting data, most of the pension fund growth of the past five years has been wiped out in a matter of weeks.
British figures show the early wave of the coronavirus stock market crash added £100bn (€113bn) to the deficits in defined benefit pension schemes in the UK. A prolonged recession could leave that figure at £900bn.
So, of those lucky enough to enjoy a defined benefit pension scheme, where is their money invested?
According to Mercer’s asset allocation study for 2019, 28pc of defined benefit pension assets were invested in equities. A staggering 50pc was invested in bonds.
Almost all of those bonds (90pc) were Irish Government debt, leaving 45pc of all DB pension assets invested in Irish sovereign bonds. Returns here won’t set the world on fire, but by and large these funds will have insulated themselves somewhat from this crash by having so much tied up in that asset and not stocks and shares. Defined contribution schemes and those self-administered pensions chasing previous losses from the last crash, may well have been caught out much worse by the stock market fall.
If you are still many years away from retirement there is time for things to recover.
But if you are close to retiring and watching every euro in that retirement fund, then chances are you have taken a massive hit.
Around 30,000 people will turn 65 this year. That leaves around half of them with no pension and a sizeable chunk of the rest having seen a fifth or more of what they had built up down the drain.
Ireland’s pensions problem is building. The recession triggered by the virus will affect those close to retirement the most. However, it will almost certainly have ensured that those without a private pension will have to wait longer to collect the State pension. And those on the wing of the plane who have no pension provision at all, will wait longer before experiencing the positive nudge auto-enrolment would have given them. They introduced auto-enrolment in the UK not that long ago. It is likely significant numbers are opting out of the scheme as we speak. In Ireland, its longawaited launch in 2022, now seems a lot less likely.
If we are in for a prolonged slowdown, we may see a move to allow people to crack open their pension funds early as a way to encourage spending and get the economy back moving again. This might deliver a short-term gain, but will do nothing to alleviate the longer-term pain.
Chances are, those close to retiring have taken a massive hit