Coastal floods to hit 70,000 homes and businesses if climate crisis continues
MORE than 70,000 Irish homes and premises are in danger of coastal flooding caused by climate change, data compiled for the insurance industry shows.
In a worst-case scenario, with sea-level rise exacerbated by high tide and an extreme weather event, some properties could be virtually swallowed up in six-metre high storm surges.
Dublin, Louth and Clare would suffer the greatest damage in terms of numbers of properties affected, but the impact would be felt throughout all 14 coastal counties.
Proportionately, Louth would be the most vulnerable, with 19pc of all the county’s addresses under threat.
In Clare, 13pc of homes and premises would be hit, while in Limerick almost 6pc would be under water. Just under 4pc of Dublin properties would be affected.
The forecast is compiled by Irish firm Gamma Location Intelligence, which specialises in data mapping and insurance-risk models.
Richard Cantwell, senior spatial data scientist, said, based on average flood claims, the financial impact of coastal flooding caused by climate change on properties alone would be €2bn.
Current claims average around €21,000 for damage to homes and almost €81,000 for commercial properties.
That does not include loss of vehicles, belongings, disruption to business or the cost to the State of clean-ups and repairs to infrastructure.
Significantly, it also excludes the number of properties likely to be affected by river flooding, which is currently the greatest cause of flood damage in this country and which is also worsening with climate change.
“Global warming is already having an impact on our daily lives, but the effects of it will become more tangible and extreme in the years to come,” Mr Cantwell said.
“With increasing global temperatures, sea levels are rising, which means flooding will become more commonplace.
“This will have a major impact on many Irish counties, particularly along the coast, and a significant number of properties are set to be affected – unless carbon dioxide emissions are reduced which will help to delay the process.
“In any event, such data is vital as homeowners, local authorities and insurance companies start to plan for the future. Flood risk is one that will increase exponentially, so it’s vital that the necessary infrastructure is in place to cater for the changing Irish landscape.”
The forecast uses flood modelling previously carried out for the Office of Public Works along with temperature rise predictions from the UN’s intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) and Eircode data to map out the properties in the firing line.
Some 88pc of the addresses are residential, equating to around 62,000 homes.
In a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, where the world fails to halt the rise in temperatures, the IPCC says the planet could warm by two degrees by 2050, with immense knock-on effects on glacial melting and sea-level rise, and much more frequent occurrences of erratic and extreme weather.
According to the Gamma model, an extreme weather event against the backdrop of that scenario would see Wexford hit by surges of 3-3.5 metres. Galway, Meath and Louth would suffer surges of 5-5.5 metres and Limerick city could face up to six metres.
Much of the north-west and Kerry could see surges of up to five metres, and Dublin and the south and south-west would have four-metre surges.
In Dublin, areas such as Baldoyle, Portmarnock, Sutton, Clontarf, East Wall, Ringsend, Irishtown, Sandymount, Booterstown and Blackrock are most vulnerable.
The modelling does not take into account the potential mitigating affects of flood protection works.
‘Global warming is already having an impact on our daily lives, but the effects of it will become more tangible and extreme in the years to come’