Just when – and how – can football actually return?
Jeremy Wilson runs the rule over the obstacles to be overcome before a ball is kicked again in the Premier League and sets out what we know so far about the plans for Project Restart, training, player testing and what it will all mean for supporters
WHEN WILL FOOTBALL RETURN?
THE first major football league back was Germany’s Bundesliga, who completed a full programme of matches on the weekend of May 16-17.
The English Premier League, who are so desperate to complete the season and avoid a potential £762m (€855m) rebate on their broadcast income, are also working on a plan that would see top-flight football resume in England in June, probably from the 19th or 26th. The Premier League have argued that many jobs depend on football’s return, including further down the football pyramid and that they can resume with sufficient safety protocols.
Other European professional football leagues including Spain’s La Liga and Italy’s Serie A are now also working on plans to return this summer although other governments with lower coronavirus death tolls than the UK – such as in France, Belgium and Holland – have decided that the risk is too great and that their seasons should immediately be ended.
The UK government is adamant that football will only come back when it is safe but risk analysts say that it will come down to a calculation of acceptable risk and that the possibility of worst-case scenarios, such as a related fatality, must be factored in. Formal talks are being held regularly with the UK government who have published ‘Step One’ and ‘Step Two’ of their guidelines for elite sport.
Step One allows training to resume provided that players remain socially distanced. This was agreed by clubs on Monday of last week, with training then resuming on Tuesday.
Step Two will allow contact training and will be voted on this week. The government are open to letting professional sport resume even while other social distancing measures are in place and amateur football remains locked down.
Public Health England would ultimately have to sign off the Premier League’s return.
WILL FANS BE ABLE TO ATTEND MATCHES?
NO. The Premier League had planned to play games at between eight and 10 neutral and approved stadiums – the vast majority of which would have been existing Premier League grounds, although Wembley may be used.
Clubs were initially told that all 20 stadiums would not receive their safety certificate but this has been challenged and further talks are now ongoing between the police, the Sports Grounds Safety Authority, the clubs and government over the feasibility of playing matches home and away.
With mass gatherings likely to be banned into 2021, no fans will be present for the foreseeable future. Clubs are considering initiatives to minimise the loss of atmosphere, such as broadcasting fan noise or filling stadiums with cardboard cut-outs of fans. Television companies are also working on a range of ideas that could include the viewer choice of computer-generated fan noise and fans, rather like on the FIFA game.
WHICH STADIUMS WILL BE USED?
THE Premier League has not yet decided and everything will depend on whether matches can be played home and away, which is still the preference of most clubs and has appeared increasingly likely.
Should neutral stadiums be the only way forward, an analysis based on a grading system that will be used by the Police and Sports Ground Safety Authority, suggests that the venues of West Ham United, Manchester City, Brighton & Hove Albion, Southampton, Arsenal, Leicester City and Aston Villa are comparatively well suited. Wembley is also a strong option.
Manchester United, Wolves, , Bournemouth, Tottenham, Chelsea and Norwich could all also meet key criteria but the home grounds of Liverpool, Everton, Watford, Burnley, Sheffield United, Crystal Palace and Newcastle United appear unlikely to be used.
WHICH CLUB’S STADIUM WILL BE ONE OF THE PREMIER LEAGUE’S ‘NEUTRAL’ VENUES?
THE key criteria for selection would include location and the immediate exterior of the venue in the context of potential fan congregation. That means stadiums which are difficult to ring-fence or in close proximity to a city centre or housing are likely to be deemed impractical. Older stadiums may also struggle with the internal social distancing requirements if they are tightly packed in with narrow corridors and small changing rooms.
The local coronavirus infection rates will also be considered. There remains considerable disagreement at the viability of limiting ad-hoc fan gatherings and the Football Safety Officers’ Association has expressed concern that they have not been consulted about possible risk.
WHAT ARE THE MAIN STUMBLING BLOCKS?
THERE was a major backlash against the idea of neutral venues and concern that fans will gather, even privately, regardless of where matches are held. The risk would naturally be especially highlighted in matches that could decide key issues, such as relegation or European qualification. Liverpool are also poised to win their first league title for 30 years. Clubs and police would be tasked with stopping mass crowds outside of stadiums, but it would be impossible to prevent more secret gatherings of fans in individual homes.
The issues of regular testing, and the accuracy of coronavirus tests, still remains a question. With key workers having only relatively recently been given access to tests – and still questions over whether the supply has met the demand, especially in care homes – the Premier League’s £4m deal with a Japanese biotechnology company has raised moral concerns. Although the Premier League is not using National Health Service (NHS) resources, the British Medical Association has said that football should not be using personal protective equipment during the coronavirus crisis until shortages blamed for the deaths of healthcare workers are fully resolved.
There are also questions inside football at the accuracy of the tests, which are not 100 per cent, and also the practicalities of the current plan, which would involve testing players twice a week but not quarantining them unless there is a positive test.
WHAT HAPPENS IF A PLAYER TESTS POSITIVE?
MIKEL ARTETA’S positive test for coronavirus back on March 12 ended the Premier League’s plans to play across the weekend of March 14-15 and there are fears that any outbreak would bring this latest idea crashing down if it occurred after a series of matches. In this current first phase, positive tests are being dealt with by quickly isolating the player for seven days.
Further tests are then completed but a player is not supposed to resume team training for two weeks. That is what has happened in Bundesliga, although there is obviously a risk that a player could infect others once contact training resumes during the 24-hour lag for a result. It is understood that the current plan is not to quarantine an entire team – just the individual player – but there would be questions as to whether this would contravene current advice if that player has been in close contact with his team-mates or opponents. Current Public Health England guidelines advise that any contacts of a positive test should also isolate for 14 days.
Eight players or club staff tested positive in the Premier League’s first round of tests and have been placed in isolation.
At least 11 players and staff have already tested positive for the coronavirus in the Bundesliga following the resumption of training and the clubs have been told they do not have to disclose positive tests to the media.
The entire Dynamo Dresden squad were placed into an enforced two-week quarantine by their local health authority after two players tested positive. They missed their first two matches.
WHEN MIGHT THE PLAYERS RESUME TRAINING?
PLAYERS have already been following individual training programmes and are largely now back in small groups as part of ‘Step One’ training but the clubs hope to move to ‘Step Two’ and contact training imminently. Troy Deeney, the Watford striker, and Chelsea midfielder N’Golo Kante are the highest-profile examples of players who have decided not to resume. Deeney has flagged up various questions that he says remain unanswered, notably over evidence that black and minority ethnic (BAME) people are being disproportionately impacted by the coronavirus.
Clubs believe that they would need around four weeks to complete a mini pre-season of contact training.
WOULD PLAYERS WANT TO BE RUSHED BACK?
THIS remains a point of considerable debate and, while views are mixed, there is a feeling among some players that their willingness to rush back has been taken for granted. Others are desperate to get back training and playing. The trust between clubs, governing bodies and players has also been severely tested in recent weeks following largely unresolved talks over salary cuts or deferrals and the willingness to schedule a full programme of matches on the weekend of March 14, only to then perform a U-turn when Arteta tested positive for the coronavirus.
Players have been advised to make their own decisions on the safety of resuming training and must agree an ‘opt-in’ protocol. Player unions have insisted upon “guarantees of safety” before players step back out on a pitch after seeking advice from the World Health Organisation.
Particular questions have been asked about the medical advice for players with pregnant partners. Various doctors have also raised concerns over the potential long-term impact to both the cardiac and lung health of people who have suffered Covid-19 and are recommending only a very gradual return to strenuous exercise.
WHAT NEW RULES WOULD BE IN PLACE?
PLAYERS would have to carry out further health checks and additional social distancing would be observed up until the matches began, such as ensuring more than one changing room per team. There would be no prematch handshake and there would be a ban on celebrations where players get close to each other, as well as spitting.
FIFA has also pushed through a plan that would allow up to five substitutes to mitigate against the risk of playing matches with minimal preparation and the likelihood of a congested schedule.
WHO COULD ATTEND GAMES?
THE estimate is that there will be 20 players present, as well as 16 coaches and medical staff per squad. There would be a total of six match officials, plus another six Hawk-Eye staff to operate goal-line technology, the communication systems used by the referees and the video assistant referee technology. Then there are four people for doping control and four to move the “matchday furniture”, which includes all the sponsors and branding signs.
The tunnel doctor and club doctors will total around another eight people, with three league staff at every game (match-day coordinator, delegate and match manager). At present, the plan is to allow in 28 written media and two photographers, with the majority of the media – 100 with access to the stadium for live games – coming from the television and radio “broadcast partners”.
WOULD MATCHES BE ON TV?
ALL remaining 92 Premier League fixtures could be televised or streamed, with the UK government wanting at least some to be made available free-toair amid fears people would otherwise be even more incentivised to break social-distancing rules by gathering to watch them together.
This, however, could be a point of some contention with broadcasters who have lost subscriptions as a result of the lockdown and whose funding underpins the Premier League’s entire financial model.
Sky Sports and BT Sport are contractually entitled to show 47 of the 92 matches – which look certain to remain behind a pay wall – but could be awarded more games to compensate them for the lack of live action during the lockdown. The traditional 3pm Saturday blackout for broadcasters has been lifted for the rest of the season.
YouTube or Amazon could also show some matches and the BBC are likely to push for additional highlights shows.
WHAT IS THE CUT-OFF POINT FOR SEASON FINISHING?
THE Premier League is working to a model that would see the 2019-’20 season completed by the end of July. This works back from the need to start the 2020-’21 season by September to have any chance of future seasons and competitions also remaining intact.
What about lower down the football pyramid? Those leagues which are less dependent on broadcast income also have less incentive to return without fans. Indeed, if the financial model depends on gate receipts, then it could actually be more costly to stage matches without fans. This clearly does not apply to the Premier League – their broadcast revenues are worth £9 billion (€10bn) – and explains the desire to get top-flight football started.
WOULD THERE BE RELEGATION AND PROMOTION STILL?
THE idea of voiding relegation, as an acceptance that the season’s ‘sporting integrity’ has been destroyed, has been raised as a means of reaching agreement on neutral venues. This was strongly opposed, however, by the broadcasters for whom the Premier League are so keen to get playing.
The English Football League, from which Leeds and West Brom, are poised to win promotion, have also made it clear that there would be a legal challenge. If the Premier League season restarts or even if it is curtailed, there would still be relegation and promotion. (© Daily Telegraph, London)