Fugitive virus remains a risk as we head for super-charged phase-two exit from lockdown
Covid-19 is weakened but still among us
HOW much of a grip does the dangerous and elusive Covid-19 virus still have on us as we head towards a super-charged phase-two exit from lockdown next week?
Are we ready and what do we need to know about the risks ahead?
The reality is that while Covid-19 is weakened, it remains a fugitive virus among us. For many weeks the focus has been on infection hotspots like nursing homes and more recently meat plants – but the advantage in trying to contain these outbreaks is that public health doctors are able to pinpoint the location of infections.
But experts remain concerned about the four in 10 people who were diagnosed with the virus this week who did not have any idea where they picked it up.
It’s this kind of the slippery, uncontrolled community transmission which reminds us that we are still in the grasp of the virus despite having weakened its power over us.
Other trends also show that well over half of people who are getting the virus are close contacts of someone who has fallen ill with the infection.
These have become infected in the three weeks of phase one when limited gatherings of up to four were allowed.
Questions must be asked if physical distancing, the wearing of face masks or handwashing were followed.
People mixing will soon be relatively fast-tracked, compared with weeks of isolation, reminding us of how we should not let down our guard.
Yesterday’s Government decision to deliver something of a breakneck speeding-up of the lockdown exit roadmap is based on a huge fall in the spread of the disease, hospitalisations, intensive care admissions and, thankfully, a drop in deaths. As of yesterday, there were 140 patients with the virus in hospitals, a drop of 85pc since April.
There were still 37 very ill patients in intensive care, a fall of 77pc from early April.
Deaths reduced to three a day last week, compared with 33 when the pandemic was at its worst.
The R number – which describes the average number of people an infected person passes the virus on to – rose slightly but is still at a comfortable 0.4 to 0.7. If it goes past one over the next three weeks of this phase of the roadmap we may see some slamming of the brakes in moving on to more reopenings. If it rises above one, the numbers of cases will start to grow rapidly and the virus has the potential to get out of control.
The Central Statistics Office (CSO), which has been tracking the virus, provided good insights on Thursday into how it is now affecting different counties.
Up to last weekend, the number of people who died from Covid-19 or were diagnosed with the virus had fallen for the sixth week in a row.
Dublin continued to be the worst hit by Covid-19 with 15 deaths in that week. It was the only county to record more than four new deaths each week for the past three weeks.
Dublin, Cork, Galway and Kildare were the only counties to record more than 20 new cases in the week ended May 29. Five counties – Donegal, Kerry, Leitrim, Sligo and Wexford – had no new cases in that week.
Dublin has suffered more than half of all deaths so far.
And 93pc of deaths have been among people over 65. It has also taken a toll on people with pre-existing illnesses, with 89pc of those who died from the virus having an underlying condition.
Younger age groups are picking up the virus, which could be a signal of more risk-taking.
The median age of confirmed cases last week was 47 and there were 200 new cases diagnosed in Dublin – down from a peak of 2,900 cases in mid-April.
Cork, Galway and Kildare were the only other counties to record more than 20 new cases.
County boundaries will take on a whole new significance in the relaxation on travel which comes into effect from next week. If somebody crosses the border from Cork to Kerry they are coming from a county with 1,521 cases to one with just 308.
Central to picking up any potential clusters is the HSE’s virus testing and tracing system. It has improved and can carry out 100,000 tests a week.
But it is still missing its target to report on tests in three days. The target is 90pc but it is still at 82pc, a delay it blames on outliers where people are difficult to trace. Some social contacts of meat plant workers who test positive are proving difficult to track down due to problems with phone numbers or calls unreturned.
Some 14 meat plants are under active investigation for the virus. Residential homes, including nursing homes, have seen clusters come under control and just four sites remain a serious concern. The two-metre physical distancing rule remains and this should continue to be followed if there is any short-duration meeting-up of grandparents and grandchildren, or small gatherings between people.