Pinatubo primed to erupt and leave Guineas rivals in shade
THE American author and Christian minister Joyce Meyer once said that patience is not simply the ability to wait – it’s how we behave while we’re waiting.
We’ve certainly been waiting a long time for British and Irish racing to come back, and my bank manager will be glad I’ve behaved well and refrained from betting on racing in places like France and the US, where I’ve lost small fortunes in the past.
Although it’s great to have some familiar Classics to get stuck into this weekend, I think a cautious approach is needed right now and punters are advised to ease back into their betting.
A lot has changed since I wrote my last column on these pages just after Cheltenham, and there are lots of unknowns with the form, which will take time to settle.
Indeed, that’s reflected in the early battles with the bookmakers and they are already coming out on top. Ordinarily, favourites on the Flat and allweather have an average strike rate of 34 per cent in the month of June, but at the time of writing, that stands at just 24 per cent for 2020; quite significant.
I’m not saying to avoid the favourite totally, and I’ll back a few of them myself this weekend, but just be sure you have a rock-solid reason to do so, and avoid following the market for the sake of it just now.
Having said all that, it’s hard to get away from some of the jollies, and
Pinatubo is impossible to oppose at 5/6 in the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket today (3.35), which takes place around a month later than expected. I reckon this is one race where Covid won’t make much of a difference as most of these were not due to run beforehand anyway.
Named after an active volcanic mountain on the the Philippines island of Luzon, Pinatubo is one of the highest-rated juveniles we’ve seen in recent times and looks primed to explode from the gates here. Charlie Appleby’s colt has grown and strengthened a little over the winter, according to connections, and he’s already beaten a couple of rivals including Arizona, which is said to be flying at home.
For each-way backers, I wouldn’t put anyone off Mums Tipple at 33/1, based on a cracking win at York in August, before he flopped in the Middle Park in September.
Another at a nice price today is John Gosden’s Mishriff, which has been chalked up at 8/1 early doors for the Listed Betfair Exchange Free Bet Streak Newmarket Stakes (3.0).
Second in the Saudi Derby at King Abdulaziz in February, he looked useful when winning a maiden at Nottingham previously and he can give stablemate and favourite Waldkonig a run for his money.
Finally, Royal Line is a decent bit of value around 4/1 up at Newcastle for the Group Three Betway Sagaro Stakes (2.40), based on a good third in the Long Distance Cup at Ascot.