After Holohan’s steady hand, we are now being asked to put our trust in McHugh
Like Troika’s exit, danger comes when ministers take back the reins,
MISSION accomplished? After taking us into the lockdown, Leo Varadkar’s caretaker administration will pretty much unlock the country at the end of the month.
The country will effectively be fully open by mid-July. The dragging-out of talks on a new coalition means any new government won’t be in place in time to announce the revised Phase 3 and 4 plan.
The plan will be announced in the week ending Friday, June 26, with the next phase kicking in on Monday, June 29.
The putative new government is supposed to take office immediately thereafter.
Assuming there is agreement on a programme for government in the next 72 hours, the document will be put to the membership of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Green Party. Whatever about the Greens’ internal machination, Fianna Fáil’s logistical exercise of getting ballot papers out to 18,000 members and back again, within 10 days, will be quite the operation.
The Greens have 1,800 members with which to carry out the same process, and Fine Gael has about 700-odd politicians and activists to consult with, making it easier.
Senior Fine Gael figures admit some party TDs are quietly hoping the deal will be rejected as they relish the prospect of a second general election to reap the rewards of their upsurge in popularity.
For now, an election seems unlikely. All going well, you’ll have a new Taoiseach, new cabinet, new government and new Seanad all done and dusted by June 30.
The message left with the public, which Fine Gael ministers insist on calling “the Irish people”, will be to remember who you turned to in an hour of need. The response back to the politicians might well be the public trusted the chief medical officer and the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) most.
Nphet became the Troika of this particular crisis. Although we don’t fondly recall the IMFEU-ECB bailout of a decade ago, at the time of the Troika’s arrival, there was a sense of relief someone was taking charge. The sentiment didn’t last long as it was replaced with shame, anger and resentment at austerity being imposed upon the country.
Dr Tony Holohan has served as a more benevolent version of Ajai Chopra, providing direction to a country in the midst of a confusing and fast-moving emergency. Although Holohan didn’t have a democratic mandate, he called it straight and administered the hard medicine.
Nphet essentially became the Troika, taking the decision-making out of the politicians’ hands. The line between advice and decision-making was glossed over. Besides, hiding behind Nphet suited the Government, providing cover with both the public and the Opposition alike.
Now, as the coronavirus enters its next stage and the temporary Government is taking back control from Nphet and Holohan, there’s a lesson to be learned from the financial crisis: beware of mission creep. The discipline of the bail-out kept manners on Fine Gael and the Labour Party from 2011 to 2013. Freed from the shackles of outside supervision, the infighting and absence of purpose returned.
The risk with Nphet taking a back seat is the new government can’t make decisions.
It’s exactly three months since the country was asked to pull together and stay apart as the first part of the lockdown came into force with the closure of schools on March 12.
Three months on and with their extended terms in office soon to finish, here’s how the main ministers in the crisis performed:
LEO VARADKAR 7/10
The Taoiseach has the luxury of being compared to our two closest cultural neighbours to the east and west in the US and Britain. He got the crisis he prepared for in Brexit and took firm action with direct messaging to the public. He is now making the shift from dealing with the acute crisis to managing an ongoing problem. However, the crisis did highlight the inequalities in our society.
PASCHAL DONOHOE 8/10
Sprang into action with a Keynesian pump-priming of the economy as he opened the wallet when the crisis struck. Designed a not-altogether-perfect income support system over a weekend and showed the capability to take decisive action. Yes, some people were better off on the Covid dole but the alternative was a bureaucracy leaving people with no money.
SIMON HARRIS 5/10
The Health Minister proved highly useful in the “air war” of communicating the public health message. He was handed a blank cheque to go along with Nphet’s decisions. His four years of under-delivery in the portfolio have proven costly, though. The radical changes to the health service of the past three months show what can be done with direction. He wisely stood back from the rows between Nphet, the HSE and his department. His inadequacy on the nursing homes vulnerability will be a damning legacy.
Business Minister was ahead of the mood and clear on specific supports to prop up economy
JOE McHUGH 1/10
Drifting along under the radar for 18 months, the crisis has really exposed the Education Minister. There seemed to be two Joe McHughs: the Joe McHugh who wanted to hold the Leaving Cert and reopen schools, and the other Joe McHugh who can’t do it. When assertiveness was required, he got tied up in social partnership consultation. He seems to be incapable of developing and enunciating a policy in a clear and coherent fashion.
SIMON COVENEY 6/10
Played a part role in the health crisis but his Department of Foreign Affairs did handle the repatriation of stranded travellers with little fanfare. He kept abreast of Brexit and managed the coalition negotiations so had a considerable workload. HEATHER HUMPHREYS 7/10
Colleagues of the Business Minister would do well to take note. She was ahead of the mood and clear on the specific supports put in place to prop up the domestic economy.
She was honest about not all businesses making it through to the far side. And she gave a clip across the ear to ministers who opened mouths before engaging brains.
KATHERINE ZAPPONE 2/10
Childcare became a vacuum in the entire crisis, with several botched pronouncements. The Children’s Minister, who lost her seat in the election, was never short in talking up her own importance, but delivered little. Hopefully, the latest cash injection for crèches will serve a purpose.
REGINA DOHERTY 6/10
Laudably, the Department of Social Welfare got stuck in to processing payments for workers who lost their jobs to ensure the cash kept flowing fast. Where anomalies emerged, they were addressed.
CHARLIE FLANAGAN 5/10
Gardaí went back to a community policing model of old and the prison service commendably saw not a single prisoner test positive for the virus. However, the questionmarks over the Garda powers to enforce the restrictions meant they were left on a wing and a prayer.