CURRAGH CRACKER
Michael Verney and Wayne Bailey mark your card for the 1,000 Guineas at the Curragh
DESPITE the fact this corner didn’t tip any of the Guineas winners last weekend, my first foray into the betting world since March was satisfactory with John Gosden’s Mishriff settling the nerves with a win in one of the Listed races at Newmarket.
Returned at 10/1 SP, I backed the colt at 14/1 on the exchanges and although I only showed a modest profit over the weekend as a whole, it was a confidence booster ahead of the next big battle with the old enemy: a very strange Royal Ascot beginning on Tuesday behind closed gates.
Even though my stakes won’t be as big as normal, I’ll still follow my usual admittedly simplistic approach at Royal Ascot of focusing mostly on the best horses in the race.
I’ve mentioned before how we can sometimes do ourselves out of money by trying to be too clever in this game when looking for a betting angle – but when it comes to high-quality Flat racing, the first place to start is often with the top-rated horse.
I’m not saying you should follow horses blindly, and I’ll always look for chinks in its armour, but it’s worth keeping in mind that the clear top-rated horse on official ratings has shown a 30 per cent strike-rate in non-handicaps at the Royal meeting since 2008, with 49 winners from 162 bets.
Had you stuck a tenner on each, you’d have pocketed €83 to SP, or €263 to Betfair SP, in that period. Not a fortune, but it’s a good place to start. It’s a simple strategy and you should do further work – but the point I’m making is that you must have a rock-solid reason to oppose the top horses in non-handicaps at places like Royal Ascot.
Having said all that, what effect the lack of a run or other Covid-19-related issues will have on participants remains to be seen, so a bit of common sense with your staking is a must.
We’ve got a few chances to boost the betting bank ahead of it anyway – and I’m confident that Albigna will help out in that regard and justify her 15/8 favourite tag in the Irish 1,000 Guineas at the Curragh this evening (7.15). Very useful as a juvenile, she won the Group One Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp in October, and while she could only manage fourth when last seen in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Santa Anita in November, she has excuses as she was left with too much to do.
Shane Foley (left) will have learned plenty from both these races and she has the class to emulate Alpha Centauri (2018) and land the spoils for her in-form trainer. Peaceful is the danger horse.
A little later on the same card, Magic Wand is the 5/6 favourite for Aidan O’Brien in the Group Two Fillies Lanwades Stud Stakes (7.45) but that’s a little short for me in a race which includes the promising Silk Forest for Paddy Twomey at 4/1.
Silk Forest is related to some useful sorts and ended the season in great form, and while Magic Wand is a Group One winner, she’s frustrating to follow with far more second-place finishes than first.
Across the water at Newbury, King Of
Comedy catches the eye in the Mansionbet’s Diomed Stakes (3.35) around 9/4, while at Sandown, each-way backers should consider Mankayan around 16/1 in the Oxshott Handicap (4.50), a promising gelding which should not be judged only on a couple of poor runs at the end of last season.
Tomorrow, I’m looking forward to backing Michael Dods’ Dakota Gold, around 15/8 in the Listed Betway Achilles Stakes (2.35 Doncaster), a race usually held at Haydock. Dods has some Group races in mind for his gelding, which completed a five-timer in a Listed race at Ascot in October. El Astronaute will make a good race of it.
Finally, Open Wide could be the one to side with at Goodwood in the Listed Coral/British EBF Cathedral Stakes (2.20), priced in the region of 6/1. This is an open-looking race but I reckon the market has the selection overpriced largely based on a poor run in a handicap at Newmarket last week.