Some in FF fear SF eating further into their support

‘THE squeaky wheel gets the grease,” the old adage has it. Thus, because of its high two-thirds bar, the Green Party is getting vastly more limelight than its would-be coalition partners in Fine Gael and especially in Fianna Fáil.

It is received wisdom that the deal will “sail through” in Fine Gael and be “carried comfortably” by Fianna Fáil. But neither of these parties’ members is unanimous about this three-way power split.

Fianna Fáil is a particularly unhappy family when it comes to coalition talk. And as the great author Leo Tolstoy famously wrote, “each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way”.

The talented but eclectic Éamon Ó Cúiv has taken on the mantle of expressing this Fianna Fáil family unhappiness. But there are many others who agree.

One well-placed party stalwart has told this writer to expect a 70:30 endorsement of coalition when the Fianna Fáil portion of the result is revealed, along with the other two party verdicts tomorrow some time after 6pm. Granted, a 70pc vote of support is a good outcome any time.

It is influenced by a feeling the party has disappeared after a bad election on February 8. Members are still absorbing the shock of a disappointing 22pc and the loss of some valued TDs, like Fiona O’Loughlin, Timmy Dooley, Pat ‘The Cope’ Gallagher, and Malcolm Byrne.

They have seen their party all but disappear since polling day. Coronavirus kudos has sent Fine Gael, who also had a bad election, into the stratosphere of opinion poll ratings, while Fianna Fáil’s “real enemy”, Sinn Féin, is holding its own, and a bit with that.

Ó Cúiv touches a particularly raw nerve when he talks about Mary Lou McDonald’s party being the real potential winners from this three-party coalition. Sinn Féin will have a near monopoly on opposition when money goes scarce and post-coronavirus public deficits must be tackled.

There is lingering resentment within Fianna Fáil at a perceived underperformance in the last election by its leader, Micheál Martin. But hard-headed members know they cannot remain in Opposition and watch their popularity go down and down.

Last week’s Ipsos-MRBI poll for the ‘Irish Times’ put them on just 13pc – four points below their worst ever election in February 2011. So, there will be some relief to see Martin enter the Taoiseach’s office if these votes go right tomorrow.

In politics, the most dangerous thing of all is to be ignored. And that is largely what has been happening to Fianna Fáil since the general election more than four months ago.

But the other 30pc against coalition are also saying something about the future. It is that in a world where Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael share government, and face off against Sinn Féin, there will not be room for the two traditional big beasts of Irish politics.

In reality, they correctly see Sinn Féin, as it moves to the centre-left, eating into Fianna Fáil traditional support. They see Fine Gael, traditionally the weaker of the two, having more definition.