D-day is finally upon us, a mere 139 days after we voted in the election
As we prepare to learn our political destiny, there are five possible outcomes – but none of them are ideal, writes John Downing
WE EXPECT to learn our political fate at about 7pm today. It has been a long haul and the uncertainty has persisted right to the end with all eyes still on the Green Party’s 1,962 registered voters and doubts about whether they would clear the two-thirds majority bar.
From here, there are five distinct possibilities, depending on the outcome of the vote by the Greens and the other two parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
None of these outcomes is ideal – but some are worse than others. Here are the scenarios in order of likelihood:
Yes from all parties sets coalition on uncertain journey
Since the vote counting concluded way back on Tuesday, February 11, Dáil arithmetic has said this Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Green Party line-up looked most likely. But there were many talks about talks before we even got started.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael finally agreed to open government negotiations on April 14, a historic move which almost passed unnoticed amid coronavirus trauma and show-stealing by the Greens.
The Green Party did, despite internal machinations, eventually agree on May 14 to start talks with the other two. A draft deal was finally agreed on June 15.
Along the way there was persistent speculation about all three parties not getting into serious talks; about the ability of such disparate groupings being able to cut a deal; and finally whether the three party memberships would ratify it.
Now speculation may in this scenario switch focus to how long this coalition can last.
But let’s be optimistic. All three parties are heavily invested so far.
Likelihood: 4/5
Another election as early as coronavirus permits
If this draft deal is not ratified by the members of all three parties today, one way or another we will be headed back to the ballot box.
After 139 days of talking and internal debates – pretty much twice the last record in 2016 – it would be hard to countenance still more talks about other options.
But since coronavirus will push the election prospect into the autumn, more party and Independent TD talks will fill at least the interim space. There is no guarantee another election would give us a more clear-cut result.
The President has sole power to refuse a Dáil dissolution. Given his half century of political experience, President Michael D Higgins could advise our TDs to try again for a government. There are, however, limits to everything. We are moving all the time towards a more European model of politics.
Where coalition-making once took mere days, and then weeks, we are now in the realms of months. It took 70 days in 2016 and is today on 139 and counting. Another general election would be a better bet than trying to “out-Belgium the Belgians”.
Likelihood: 3/5
A Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael plus Independents government:
It’s all about getting to 80-plus TDs and a majority to sustain a government in office. Just hold that thought.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael total 72, and there are some 20 Independent TDs. Perhaps 10 or more of these Independents could be persuaded to come on board with the two traditional parties.
There would be huge naysaying about potential government instability. That danger is obvious – but does not have to automatically follow.
In the recent past, government-support deals with Independents endured. In some cases, when the heat came on, the Independents lasted better than the loyalty of individual party TDs.
Many of these Independents are seasoned politicians who
know how to make a workable deal. Talks would not be easy and a deal could take some time. But a result could emerge long before another election is allowable due to coronavirus.
Likelihood: 3/5
Sinn Féin-Fianna Fáil and others coalition
Numerically this is highly doable – politically it is extremely problematic. The numbers tell us Sinn Féin’s 37 TDs and the same number for Fianna Fáil takes us to 74 – a short walk to the required 80-plus majority.
Labour and the Social Democrats with six TDs each will be talked about. But each of these has already appeared decidedly uninterested in joining any coalition and would take some coaxing.
The Soc Dems’ focus is trying to build a party – Labour is trying to rebuild shattered political fortunes.
The idea of the Greens coming on board occurs again here, and some in the party believe they can more easily make common cause with Sinn Féin.
But other Green stalwarts point to Sinn Féin’s opposition to the local property tax and rejection of current proposals for carbon taxes. Surely a non-starter.
However, the biggest bugbear of all with this scenario is the antipathy between the leadership of both parties. Granted, some in Fianna Fáil believe they can easier operate with Sinn Féin than with Fine Gael. But Micheál Martin has totally bet his fortunes on having no truck whatsoever here. His strong attacks on Mary Lou McDonald’s party during the general election campaign not only closed that door – they nailed it shut.
Serious moves to coalesce with Sinn Féin could utterly split Fianna Fáil.
It is also likely that all Sinn Féin’s fulminations about being excluded from coalition-making amounts to rhetoric as it relishes ownership of opposition.
Likelihood: 2/5
Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael minority coalition with external Green Party support
This would assume the Green Party membership vote did not clear the required two-thirds majority bar.
If the Green Party would not manage to fully join government, how would a kind of associate membership go?
On the plus side many of the opponents of the three-party coalition had urged a national government of all parties and groupings. This arrangement could be presented as a diluted form of that at a time when government is required.
But realpolitik is totally against this idea for too many reasons. Firstly, it would be hard to get Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael buy-in and establish trust. Secondly, it could again involve going back to the Green Party membership for renewed consultation, further enflaming strained relations.
Unless something extraordinary and unforeseen happens, it is hard to see this idea gaining traction at all.
Likelihood: 1/5