22,500 jobs at risk as pubs expect to sell only half their usual volume of drinks
PUBS expect to sell only half their usual volume of drinks and could shed 22,500 jobs “permanently” this year.
That is the central forecast by DCU economics lecturer Anthony Foley in an industry-commissioned report published today.
“Our most optimistic market expectations for the second half of 2020 are that pubs’ on-licence alcohol sales will be at most 50pc of what is usual,” Mr Foley said.
“Even if pubs regain half their normal capacity by the end of 2020 – which is an optimistic scenario – as many as 22,500 jobs could be permanently lost, not to mention more in supporting trades like catering, security and entertainment,” he said.
His findings came in a report commissioned by Ibec unit Drinks Ireland, the Licensed Vintners Association (LVA) representing 600 Dublin pubs, and the Vintners Federation of Ireland (VFI) representing 4,000 pubs nationwide.
They are appealing to the Government to slash VAT and excise on alcoholic drinks at rates that, if enacted, would give publicans approximately an extra 60 cents’ profit on each pint of lager sold.
Pubs were allowed to re-open last week only if they served “substantial” meals alongside drinks. The report said a third of pubs remained closed in Dublin and three-fifths in other cities, towns and rural areas. Many of these may reopen in the week of July 20, when pubs without kitchens or significant food offerings will be permitted to resume trade.
The report calculated that reducing VAT on alcohol from 23pc to 9pc through the end of the year, as the publicans are seeking, would cost €143m in lost State revenue. But it argued this cut would help support more than 50,000 jobs within the more than 7,000 pubs nationwide and in allied enterprises, including brewers and live entertainment.
LVA chief executive Donall O’Keeffe said taxes consumed a third of pubs’ normal turnover. “This very large tax burden is not justifiable in the exceptional circumstances we are faced with,” he said.
Padraig Cribben, chief executive of the VFI, said pubs typically were reopening their doors to just 40pc of their normal customer levels because of social distancing and food service requirements.
He said the alternative to providing emergency tax breaks would be that “many bars will never open again, and the pre-Covid employment and economic contributions will not be recovered”.
‘The alternative could be that many bars will never open again’