What happens if Trump refuses to accept defeat?
ONE Friday afternoon last month, a group of politicos logged on to Zoom to wargame what could happen after the US election. Among them were senior figures once in the White House, Pentagon, Homeland Security and Congress.
They were split into teams. Some acted as if they were in Donald Trump or Joe Biden’s camp, making arguments accordingly. Others played Republicans or Democrats in Congress, or represented the media or the courts.
The given scenario – a technique commonly used in government and business to plan for crises – was simple: what if the morning after the vote it still was not clear who won?
Over the next four hours, the teams played out what could happen next. Within two days, the president halted the delivery of remaining mail-in ballots. Within a week, troops were called out to guard counting stations.
By inauguration day, after weeks of legal challenges and street protests, neither side had backed down. “We were all sort of sitting there, looking at each other, staring at the screen saying ‘holy s***’,” recalled one participant. There was a constitutional crisis.
Such sessions, known as “table tops” or “war-games”, involve imagination.
Yet the issues grappled with that afternoon are being discussed with increasing volume in Washington DC.
With just four months until voting day, a question once considered unthinkable is now being asked: what if the US president does not accept an election defeat?
‘The Daily Telegraph’ talked to close to 20 well-placed individuals, including many Republicans. Among them were current and former US congressmen, former senior figures in the Pentagon, intelligence agencies and past US administrations as well as academics mapping out worstcase scenarios.
What emerged was a deeply held worry that the US president could pull legal, governmental and political levers to remain in power if Mr Biden, his Democratic rival, fell short of a blowout victory.
Some predicted lawsuits over the increased use of mail-in ballots amid coronavirus. Others thought Mr Trump could misuse executive powers. Many feared a tweet for his supporters to take to the streets.
“If the result is close, he is going to fight like a steer”, said Christie Whitman, the former Republican governor of New Jersey. Academics warned of a “doomsday scenario” or a “perfect storm of bad things happening”.
Tom Coleman, former Republican congressman from Missouri, said: “One must assume he is capable of doing anything to stay in office.”
The war-game session was run by the Transition Integrity Project. The identities of those who take part is closely guarded. But it is understood members include two former governors, a former US cabinet minister, ex-chiefs of staff to a US president and vice president as well as retired members of the Pentagon and Congress.
Mr Trump has waved away suggestions he would not accept a defeat. “Certainly, if I don’t win, I don’t win,” the US president told Fox News.
Yet Mr Biden has predicted the army may need to step in.
Some Republicans and figures in the US military have a deep disquiet about how Mr Trump could act if the election does not go his way.
Lawrence Wilkerson, a retired army colonel who was chief of staff to secretary of state Colin Powell, recalled a meeting with a Republican senator last autumn. The topic for discussion was the Yemen civil war but at one point it unexpectedly changed.
“He asked me to dismiss [send away] all of my colleagues and he dismissed his legislative affairs guy and his chief of staff,” Mr Wilkerson said of the senator. “We were alone in his office and he prefaced it with ‘I just want to talk to you for a moment as a military professional’.”
“He said, ‘I want to ask you a question. If things were really
to go sour and the president loses and refuses to leave, or leaves and in either case calls a lot of his base to the streets and they come armed, what will the US military do?”
The question was stark. A senator from Mr Trump’s own party was asking: what would the army do if their own commander-in-chief refuses to accept election defeat?
Mr Wilkerson said he once thought it impossible that Mr Trump could call his supporters onto the streets with guns but now is not so sure. “I don’t think it’s probable, but just the fact that it’s possible scares me,” he said.
Guy Snodgrass served in the Trump administration until two years ago, when he stepped down as communications director to Jim Mattis, then US defence secretary. But he remains in touch with old colleagues.
He said that in recent months three different senior figures all expressed fears that Mr Trump could ask the military to do things after the election that would be unpalatable.
“President Trump has been willing, as we’ve seen consistently, to put people in very precarious positions, making them choose between personal loyalty to him and professional loyalty to the country. That is what everyone is terrified of.”
There are fears in intelligence circles, too.
General Mike Hayden was director of the National Security Agency under presidents Bill Clinton and George W Bush and was CIA director.
“I am worried this president will say the result is impossible and the election was rigged,” General Hayden said, adding: “I think the Democrats will win and this president will say it is not right. And then I don’t know what is going to happen.”
He said similar concerns about Mr Trump’s behaviour were voiced at a gathering he attended recently with 10 other former CIA, NSA and defence department figures.
None of this may come to pass. But the fears reveal the mood among the Washington establishment towards the election and this president to be one of uncertainty and trepidation. (© Daily Telegraph, London)