Efforts to cut carbon emissions must double to meet new EU 55pc target

GREENHOUSE gas emissions will fall by only half as much as Ireland is targeting over the next decade unless the new Programme for Government lives up to its promises.

Emissions will also begin to rise again after 2030 unless a whole new suite of reduction initiatives is implemented.

The forecasts, from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), lay bare the immense scale of the challenge facing the country if climate action is to be significantly ramped up and sustained.

The EPA says Ireland can achieve a 23pc cut in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 if all the initiatives in the Climate Action Plan drawn up last year are fully implemented.

Under existing EU agreements, we are legally bound to achieve a 30pc cut by 2030 as our contribution towards the EU, as a whole, achieving a 40pc reduction.

The EPA says we could meet the 30pc target by availing of the EU’s land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) scheme which offers emissions credits for developing grassland, wetlands and forestry into carbon sinks.

But the target is moving, as the EU has recently made a ‘green deal’ pledge to cut emissions by 50-55pc by 2030, in a strengthened effort to rein in a global temperature rise.

How the cuts will be apportioned between countries has yet to be worked out but the Programme for Government has adopted this new target and aims to reduce domestic reductions by an average of 7pc a year up to 2030.

Stephen Treacy, EPA senior manager, said the impact of the Programme for Government, and the fall in emissions from the economic slump during lockdown, could not be assessed yet.

“We can only work with what we know and the Climate Action Plan is the only detailed set of measures we have at the moment,” he said.

“What we can see is that if we are to achieve the targets in the Programme for Government, it represents a doubling of the effort the plan sets out.

“There are substantial changes in the Climate Action Plan – 70pc renewable energy, a million electric vehicles and retrofitting half a million homes among them – and still that gets us only half way towards the new targets.”

If the Climate Action Plan is implemented in full, Ireland’s current annual emissions of 61 million tonnes are expected to fall to 47 million tonnes.

But they would begin to rise again after that, hitting almost 50 million tonnes by 2040 if no further reduction measures were implemented.

“It’s very likely there will be new initiatives for 2030-2040 but based on what we know at the moment, the measures end in 2030 and as the population and economy grows, emissions would be driven up again,” Mr Treacy said.

EPA director general Laura Burke said the projections to 2040 showed that change was required across all aspects of society and the economy.

“We are now at a pivotal point for our economy and the steps we take in our recovery will shape Ireland for the next decade,” she said.

“What Covid-19 has taught us is, that while the decline in economic activity and travel may have resulted in a reduction in greenhouse gases in the short term, long-term improvements can only be achieved with targeted climate and environmental actions that change consumption and production systems in a sustainable and lasting manner,” she added.

‘We are now at a pivotal point for our economy’