Virus is bolting ahead in the race to roll out the vaccine

THERE are two races under way during this Covid19 crisis. The first is between Covid19 and the vaccine – and so far the virus is winning with many more infections to injections.

The other is to keep a step ahead of the more infectious strains of the virus and slow down their arrival and spread.

OUTBREAKS

Residential homes, including nursing homes, centres for people with a disability and mental health facilities are enduring a surge in infection similar to levels seen during the March and April months of the pandemic.

It is a measure of how the virus is bolting ahead of vaccinations for these most vulnerable groups. The incidence is rising among the over 85s and the tragic death toll this month is harrowing.

VACCINATION SPEED

Up to the middle of this week there were 121,900 doses of the Covid-19 administered. The aim was to give 43,700 doses to 267 long-term care facilities. However, residents and staff who have the virus must wait.

Residents of mental health and disability settings are to get a first dose by tomorrow.

Just 3,900 are still at the second-dose stage and there was a reduction in the delivery of 25,000 doses from PfizerBioNTech as it upgrades its Belgium plant. Next week will mark a significant step when 47,000 will get their second dose and be fully vaccinated.

A decision on approval of the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine is also due on Friday and many hopes are resting on this as the game-changer. Hopefully, it will come in significant supplies and be given by GPs and pharmacists.

But the first shipment might not arrive until mid-February and that will still limit the scramble to get as many older people in long-term care and frontline health workers as possible protected before the UK strain gains even more dominance, or infectious forms of the virus from South Africa or Brazil get a foothold.

CRUNCH DECISIONS

The more infectious South African strain of the virus was detected here but believed to be contained. It may only be a matter of time before it comes in through air or sea travellers. The other big fear is the Brazilian strain, which is not believed to be here yet.

The R number, showing how fast the virus is spreading, is now between 0.5 and 0.8, which means the cases are shrinking. But reducing the current level of 2,600 new cases will take longer because the more infectious UK strain, now at 60pc of cases, is only getting more controlling. Add yet more of these more transmissible strains into the mix and an upward whirlwind in spread could start again.

The current system of having to get a pre-flight test before travelling here is better than nothing but the problem is that Covid-19 might not be detected due to the incubation period of the virus. Arrivals should quarantine for a number of days here and have a second test.

Apart from a penalty, the question is what action to take with passengers without a test result and whether quarantine should be mandatory.

In the UK, plans include forcing people to spend 10 days in quarantine in a hotel staffed by security guards. The person themselves would foot the bill. Other alternatives are electronic tags to be worn by travellers after arrival here. Another is a location tracking app that could monitor movements.

If the South African and Brazilian strains prove resistant to vaccines, the drug companies will have to go back on reformulate. Nonetheless, we are told that would take only a few weeks.

STAYING THE COURSE

The big fear among public health officials is that people will not be able to sustain these restrictions for much longer and the fall in contacts for each infected person – which now averages around two – will be reversed as they move about more.