Shift towards the right may not mean as much as we think it will in June elections

Simon Harris’s rapid ascent to leader of Fine Gael has been like a reprise of the opening episode of Netflix political drama Designated Survivor. In the series, a lowly minister played by Kiefer Sutherland is catapulted into the Oval Office after a devastating attack on Washington kills the president and every key official in his administration.

All other contenders for the post are dead – the Sutherland character is the only possible replacement and reluctantly accepts greatness thrust on him in the interests of continuity and political stability.

The analogy isn’t an exact one. The incoming president is a mild-mannered academic, politically inexperienced, who neither expected nor wanted this promotion. None of the above applies to the new head of Fine Gael.

But Sutherland is the last man standing following an explosion, and you’d be forgiven for imagining an act of God or some appalling disaster also wiped out every possible Fine Gael applicant.

The lack of opposition to Harris’s elevation has been astounding. Other candidates were still lacing up their running shoes while he was breasting the finishing line.

Anyhow, it’s a done deal, and his anointment as taoiseach is inevitable, bar a meteorite hitting Leinster House on April 9 when TDs are called to vote.

So, what now? The signs are clear already: a shift to the right in Irish politics, as previously predicted in this column. Ireland’s migration policy has caused discontent for some time, with demonstrations, blockades and arson on buildings intended to house asylum-seekers or suspected of that use.

In his first days as leader, Harris has been talking about a “reset” for the party, placing an emphasis on law and order and on tightening up mechanisms for dealing with asylum-seekers. He insists faster deportations must happen where international protection is refused and the Government has to move beyond its “emergency response” to migration.

Meanwhile, Michael Ring, a TD for 30 years, believes the party is too left wing and has focused excessively on social issues. Fine Gael has been “too left for too long”, the former minister told RTÉ’s This Week. “We need to stay with our values and get away from the left,” he said.

Any senior backbencher who is a proven seat-winner will be an influential voice within Fine Gael under current circumstances, where 11 TDs will not contest the next election and possibly two more will bow out.

“We are not a left-wing party, we are a centre party, and Fine Gael has to move back into the centre again and more to the right,” Mr Ring said.

“We need to go back to small businesses and farmers, and we need to forget about a lot of these social issues we have been raising over the last few years that have been annoying people and upsetting people.”

This isn’t a major surprise in relation to Fine Gael. But Sinn Féin is also edging rightwards. It’s reversing away from the Hate Speech Bill, which its members supported in the Dáil last April, and saying there will be no re-run of the two recent referendums.

Previously, Mary Lou McDonald said the party, in power, would hold the care referendum again if it fell.

Aontú, generally regarded as right of centre, was up 2pc to 5pc in last Sunday’s Red C/ Sunday Business Post poll, its highest rating. Peadar Tóibín’s party was the only one to campaign for a No vote in the March 8 referendums.

The June elections for local authorities and the European Parliament will demonstrate the public’s take on all of these readjustments.

When ignorance gets started on the subject of international protection, it knows no bounds. People should be treated humanely, whether they are economic migrants or fleeing persecution and war.

However, an absence of efficiency and clarity in the system, plus a lack of deportations – often, rejected applicants simply go off the radar – has undermined public trust.

In addition, it is extremely disappointing to see an area of Dublin city centre turned into a shanty town, with a tent community back around Mount Street.

American evangelist Billy Graham memorably said he wasn’t for the right wing or the left wing, but for the whole bird. And that’s true of Irish society, which is largely centrist – extremism in either direction isn’t popular.

Few people favour gross inequalities in wealth or regard them as proof of talent on one side and none on the other.

Similarly, not many like the notion of an overclass and underclass, but with pinch points happening and resources being scarce, such as accommodation, the populace has grown mutinous, and the hard right has been quick to latch on to that sense of injustice, as was apparent during the Dublin riots last November.

The terms “right wing” and “left wing” originate with 18th-century French politics, based on seating in the country’s national assembly after the revolution.

Supporters of the ancien regime sat on the right while those in favour of the revolution occupied the left.

Right and left, while common labels, aren’t strictly accurate, though. Yes, right-wing orthodoxies include lower taxes, less regulation on business, privatisation of public functions and maintaining the status quo.

However, history teaches us that when the left enters office, it tends to support the status quo too.

In the Irish context, parties can have leftist or rightist leanings on fiscal and other policies, but veer in different directions on social issues. In elections, voters tick preferences for a variety of reasons, including personal experiences, rather than because they incline politically in one direction or the other.

What can be said for sure is that a shift in the course of action towards immigrants is apparent. This week, the Government agreed an opt-in on a new EU migration policy that ministers hope will reduce numbers arriving here and speed up processes for those who do come.

This is one example of movement on the political spectrum – others will soon follow.

‘With pinch points happening and resources being scarce, such as accommodation, the populace has grown mutinous. The hard right has latched on to that sense of injustice, as was apparent during the Dublin riots in November’