Tony Keenan on the invasion of Cheltenham from Ireland
Tony Keenan on the Irish challenge
There’s a chance Cheltenham 2016 becomes the Willie Mullins Festival and with bookmakers quoting him at far from fanciful prices (11/4 was the biggest at time of writing) to hit a double-figure wins total he could break all records at the meeting again.
While much of the hype around the yard’s runners is justified, punters on this side of the Irish Sea do need to be careful not to get lulled into concentrating on his runners and only his runners; it seems that much of the pre-Festival coverage over here has focussed on finding the Mullins horse for a Cheltenham race to the exclusion of all others.
Even if he does win ten races at the fixture, that is still just over one third of the total available and there remains plenty to go around across other trainers.
But Mullins has certainly been dominant this season at home, and more notably in England, making a bold bid for the UK trainers ’title despite relatively few runners and, apart from one blip in late January when Djakadam fell at Cheltenham and he had three disappointments at Doncaster, his raiders have been hitting the mark.
One market where punters could exploit this dominance is the Prestbury Cup where I would have Ireland and the UK at very similar prices yet we can be backed at general 6/4.With 28 races now at the Festival, the draw is a big player but I still think Ireland are worth supporting. Mullins is the key cog in this idea but there are other reasons for it; both Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson are having down seasons while there is a paucity of UK bankers as against a clatter of shortpriced Irish runners.
Ireland have either won or gotten within one winner of landing the Prestbury Cup in three of the last five years and with our hand looking stronger than ever, 6/4 is a fair price.
CHAMPION HURDLE
Faugheen is a massive loss to the race and it’s likely he would have been sent off the shortest-priced favourite of the Festival and unlike last year he looked full value for his market dominance. IDENTITY THIEF has been my long-range fancy for the race and has thrived this season, shaping like the best horse when second to Nichols Canyon, while the likely better ground at Cheltenham should suit.
His Christmas effort can be knocked by Nichols Canyon’s run next time but that wasn’t his form and I liked his trainer’s call to miss that race after a gruelling effort a month previous. Having only started racing in November 2014, there is improvement to come.
SEMPRE MEDICI is another player without the favourite.He actually beat Identity Thief last year albeit that one wasn’t at his best and has impressed with a pair of recent wins on home turf. Official ratings put him within hailing distance of the likes of The New One and Nichols Canyon but that isn’t factored into the market yet.
CHAMPION CHASE
I would really have liked the claims of Traffic Fluide here, especially without the favourite but also in traditional markets, but he will miss the meeting with injury. Either way, he’s one to keep on side if Gary Moore can get him back to his best. The Clarence House that he was third in looks the best form on offer which makes this race Un De Sceaux’s to lose in a down year for two-mile chasers.
He’s been a more restrained model this season and while that’s been less exciting to watch, it will improve his longevity.It can be a fast surface on the Wednesday and really quick ground is a concern – his worst performance as a novice came on good ground at Punchestown – but it’s about the only worry.
The old stagers Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy are opposable. They served up a spectacle at Kempton over Christmas but it looked a great race rather than a great performance and times suggest that both are operating at a level or two below their best.
The Tingle Creek form says there is
nothing between SPECIAL TIARA and Sire De Grugy (and by extension Sprinter Sacre) so he makes some appeal at double-figure odds; good ground would suit and he ran well in the race last year.
FELIX YONGER, too, can get into the shake-up with a decent surface also in his favour. He’s become a model of consistency of late in Ireland, winning six of his last seven starts, and comes into the race in good form.
WORLD HURDLE
THISTLECRACK is the class horse in the old Stayers’ Hurdle and has everything that is required in the context of the race. He stays well, handles the track, has much the best form and comes into the race having done everything right this season.
He will be the headline horse on the Thursday of this year’s Festival which means the firms will be out to lay him in the morning and he’s one to be backing when the inevitable drift comes as he probably should be odds-on.The Irish challenge is weak. Vroum Vroum Mag has done everything right in her career to date but has lumps to find with Thistlecrack and her connections have been making noises about her going elsewhere after his win in the Cleeve Hurdle.
Alpha Des Obeaux doesn’t look good enough while my initial fancy for the race, Martello Tower, has been fiercely disappointing this term, particularly last time when never travelling a yard in the Galmoy. A pair of cheek-pieces might sharpen him up but he could just be out of form.
GOLD CUP
The blue riband is the most interesting race of the Festival and it’s not even close. We’re in a similar position to the start of the season where the betting was 5/1 the field; it’s still that way with many of the main contenders having done things to enhance while at the same times revealed chinks in their armour. I could write my entire article on the Gold Cup and the pros and cons of each contender but I still don’t have a strong view on this Rubik’s cube of a contest and could easily change my mind on the morning of the race!
I have little doubt the that Vautour is the most talented horse in the field; the way he won last year’s JLT suggested he could have Kauto Star-type talent but unlike that one he couldn’t win the King George first time of asking despite travelling much the best for 98% of the race.
The problem is that the best horse often doesn’t win this and stamina is a major doubt; the extended trip could blunt his brilliance and as the favourite he’s hardly a price you can take a chance on. Djakadam, in the same colours, has his chance but might need some cut in the ground and it is a concern that he’s failed to complete in two out of his three Cheltenham runs.Don Cossack hasn’t reached the peaks of last season and isn’t travelling
you need to be careful not to get lulled into concentrating on MULLINS’ runners and only his runners
as well in his races this term; that has led to jumping errors and his effectiveness around Cheltenham remains an issue.
Gigginstown’s other big hope, Don Poli, has to improve at least a stone to win this and his backers are hanging a lot on the belief that he’s been idling in his races while their third string Road To Riches had a very hard race in the Irish Gold Cup and hasn’t had things go as smoothly as last season.
CUE CARD, however, is very much this season’s horse. He’s won all the key trials and his King George win looks the standout piece of form on offer with both Smad Place and Valseur Lido running well out of that race.He loves Cheltenham, having won a pair of Festival races and placed in two others, and while some have knocked his stamina on the basis of defeat in the 2013 King George, that run seemed an aberration and everything he has done this season suggests he will stay. Taking the green blinkers off for a moment, he looks the best value at current prices.
NOVICE HURDLES
Min has been the great buzzer of the winter season and some wags have pointed out that, in Ireland, you’re never more than ten feet away from someone that backed him at double figures for the Supreme! His form has worked out but I am against him at the prices as it is no better than a few of his rivals.
I’ve been keen on TOMBSTONE for this all season but his run at Leopardstown last time raised doubts about how much he wants it in the finish and he didn’t really convince in the battle at Christmas either. That said, I don’t want to read too much in the form of Irish Gold Cup day as the ground was very deep and a number of the races were overly strongly-run. Taking a more global view of his season, Tombstone appeals as one that will be well-suited by a strongly run two miles on decent ground.
You have to respect Yanworth in the Neptune after a spectacular performance on Trials Day but he’s in danger of becoming too short given the dearth of UK bankers. I have been a big Bellshill fan all season but he was savagely disappointing in the Deloitte; for a horse that thrived in good ground bumpers last term, it looked a bad call to run him on heavy ground for a fourth time in 2015/16 when he could have been kept fresh for a sound surface in spring.
As it stands, I like the Mullins second (and third) string angle in this race; the yard has such depth in the novices that Ruby may not find it easy to choose.
LONG DOG was suggested for this race last month and had his form franked in the Deloitte with a pair he beat at Christmas fighting it out while A TOI PHIL has his chance too, having won a Grade 2 on the Irish Champion Hurdle undercard that has proved an excellent Cheltenham trial.
I have no strong view on the Albert Bartlett though Barters Hill is beatable. Gangster is a player but it is disconcerting that he hasn’t run since December with a view to running here; Mullins has commented that he was the best of their novices going into the Galway Festival last summer and that team included Long Dog and Thomas Hobson.
SHANTOU VILLAGE would be a token selection. He was seemingly put in his place behind Yanworth in January but there were extenuating circumstances; the ground was on the slow side for him and he might have needed the run while the step up to three miles could see improvement. The defeat of Ivanovich Gorbatov in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle blew the Triumph Hurdle betting apart; he’s obviously drifted in the aftermath but not enough to make him of interest.
The ground was a possible excuse last time but he went on it over Christmas and it could simply be a case that he didn’t improve much from first to second run over hurdles; it’s worth remembering that Joseph O’Brien, not Aidan, trains him and expecting the improvement typical of one trained by the father from first to second run could be a mistake.
One horse that did improve for the outing was LET’S DANCE, so much so that she reversed form with Ivanovich Gorbato. In fact, she shaped like the best horse in the Spring Juvenile. Despite forcing a strong pace, she travelled best into the straight when seemingly losing concentration coming to the last before running on again in the finish. With Mullins as trainer, there could be more improvement to come and she is a big price for the Triumph.
Similar comments apply to PROTEK DES FLOS who beat the best of the UK horses to win on trials day and wasn’t
CUE CARD is very much this season’s horse. He’s won all the key trials and his King George win looks the standout piece of form on offer
given a hard time to do so. That was his first run since September so there should be more to come and he could hardly be in better hands for a Triumph bid than Nicky Henderson.
NOVICE CHASES
We can move quickly through the Arkle which Douvan should win with ease. He looks the next big thing, indeed he could already be there, and he would have a chance if taking his chance in what looks a substandard Champion Chase. Vaniteux has a bit of upside in this sphere and won well enough at Doncaster but he was a Grade 2 horse over hurdles and could prove the same over fences.
The Douvan effect could make the Arkle a small field affair – the likes of Sprinter Sacre and Simonsig scared off plenty in their years – which might mean the JLT is a super-deep race. Bristol De Mai sets a good standard while Outlander wins a lot of races for one that seems to be quirky. I suggested Shaneshill for this race previously but his Doncaster disappointment is worrying as his jumping which is quite sluggish.
At the prices, I give a chance to ZABANA.His run at Leopardstown in February was superficially poor but the ground was against him and his jumping fell apart after a couple of errors. Back on better ground and jumping better (he fenced well on chase debut) he can go well at the track where he was a close second in the Coral Cup last year.
My inclination is to take on the front two in the market in the RSA Chase. There’s a big doubt about No More Heroes on decent ground – his good run at Cheltenham last year came after the rains came – and his Irish form beating the likes of Monksland and Rule The World doesn’t excite.
More Of That has had his problems and it could be worth holding off on playing this race until late in the day with something that brings late trial form to the table; this market seems so well-formed that a late springer can only shorten so much.
BLACK HERCULES could be that horse for all that he seems intended for the National Hunt Chase; he seems a worthy Irish banker in that race and could prove the forgotten fifth leg of the Mullins fourtimer on the Tuesday of the meeting and go off very short at post-time. He was the one heavy Mullins punt that got away last season but while some would argue that was the simple snowball effect of a number of their earlier bankers winning and he was thus a false price, he didn’t run too badly in the Albert Bartlett considering the spotty preparation he had and I would respect the money from this yard. Things have gone smoother this season and he has really impressed with his jumping while he is proven at the track having come fourth over an insufficient trip in the 2014 Champion Bumper.
SHOULDER RACES
If Min has been the main buzz horse this winter, Limini has at least been in the same parish in terms of hype despite having only one outing since last May. It was an impressive run in truth, overcoming not only the break and deep ground but also a couple of decent rivals, but even so she looks very short for the inaugural running of the Mares Novice Hurdle on the Thursday of the Festival.
I prefer the claims of SMART TALK who has better form than the favourite and who beat her stablemate Morning Run at Doncaster in January. That race was run all against Smart Talk as she forced an overly-strong gallop and set the race up for the in-form Lily Waugh, yet still held enough in reserve to hold off the second. There’s a chance she goes for the longer mares race where she would be an interesting outsider should Annie Power run here rather than the Champion Hurdle, but the shorter race confined to novices gives her a better chance of a win.
On The Fringe has long been fancied
to repeat his Foxhunters success of 2015 but it’s possible his wins at the three spring festivals last year have taken their toll and there was little encouragement in his return at Leopardstown in February where he ran three stones below his best.
The eleven-year-old is worth taking on and IT CAME TO PASS makes some appeal.He only had his racecourse debut at Christmas but after winning easily at Limerick he ran a fine second upped in class on Irish Gold Cup day, closing all the way to the line on the ill-fated frontrunner You Must Know Me while On The Fringe was toiling in seventh.
He’s the sort of up-and-coming hunter chaser that often does well in this race against the regressive ex-handicappers that can be overrated in the market.
Finding a horse that will run in the handicaps seems challenge enough at this point but one that seems sure to go for the Cross-Country is BALLYBOKER BRIDGE.He has ground to get back on the favourite Josies Orders from their run over the course in December but the price discrepancy between the two means that’s a chance worth taking and he put up an improved effort when winning the PP Hogan Memorial at Punchestown, a race that has been a good trial for this. After just five runs in the cross-country sphere, he has upside left despite being nine and is in good hands with his trainer Peter Maher having sent out Big Shu to win this race in 2013.
Irish runners have a moderate record in the Festival handicap chases, the Grand Annual and the Cross-Country excepted, but UCELLO CONTI looks well-treated on the basis of his last two Irish runs and could be interesting going for a race over two-and-a-half or three miles. Put simply, he got a bad ride in the Thyestes at Gowran when Jacques Ricou, who understandably lacked knowledge of the track, kept him on the wide outside the whole way. As a consequence, he ran further than the rest of the field yet still finished a close third, not helped by errors at two of the fences in the straight either. He has won on good-firm going in France so should be fine on a sound surface in March.
Irish handicappers have a much better record over hurdles at Cheltenham with the Martin Pipe becoming a particularly happy hunting ground for Willie Mullins recently as he’s won it with subsequent Grade 1 winners Sir Des Champs, Don Poli and Killultagh Vic.
CHILDRENS LIST is unlikely to reach that level but he’s almost certainly better than he’s been showing lately over three miles as he hasn’t been getting home.His trainer is almost certain he’ll get a run too; he entered him in a UK race to see what mark he would get and 139 was awarded which would leave him on a perfect perch in a race capped at 140.