Paul Ferguson’s expert view on the big Gold Cup Day
Paul Ferguson’s Gold Cup day preview
Runner-up last year on just his sixth chase start, DJAKADAM can go one better and land the one big race that has so far managed to elude all-conquering trainer Willie Mullins, the Cheltenham Gold Cup.The seven-year-old ran a cracker last year to split Coneygree and Road To Riches, travelling powerfully into contention and sticking on in determined fashion up the hill. He came home really strongly after the last to pass Noel Meade’s runner and it was a tremendous effort.
The son of Saints Des Saints was possibly still feeling the effects of that run when runner-up to Don Cossack at Punchestown, but he returned in emphatic fashion over 2m4f when slamming Valseur Lido in the John Durkan. Promoted to favourite for the Gold Cup on the back of this effort, he was went off odds-on for the old Cotswold Chase on trials day and he was still travelling kindly when exiting at the first fence down the back. He gave Ruby Walsh no chance of retaining the partnership and it is his jumping that is the main cause for concern in terms of his chances.He has twice now fallen at Cheltenham (also came down steeply in the JLT two years ago), but when he gets it right his technique (rather low and quick) can be pretty efficient, as he spends little time in the air. At the current prices, I’m prepared to risk his fencing.
After last year’s Festival I was very much in the camp of his stable-mate Don Poli who looked tailor-made for the big one when staying on strongly to take the RSA Chase under Bryan Cooper.The sevenyear-old has failed to impress this time around, however, with his workmanlike victories over Many Clouds and First Lieutenant failing to excite. While it is not his way to be visually impressive, his form is below several of these and he might just get found wanting at a crucial stage of the race – I fear he might not be able to hold his position.
Mullins and Rich Ricci, owner of the selection, also have Vautour to consider and, at the time of writing, it is still unknown as to whether or not he will contest this or the Ryanair.If he does turn up, his stamina is the obvious concern.The smooth-travelling son of Robin Des Champs had everything in trouble in the King George, before getting collared on the line by Cue Card. While it is hard to say he did not stay, his stamina was clearly giving in late on. For me, he is the best horse in the race (nat- ural ability wise) and, trying to be positive, he could improve for returning to a left handed track and also meeting Spring ground – his two best performances to date have come at the last two Festivals.
It isn’t hard to envisage him getting everyone in trouble and looking the likely winner coming down the hill, but I have my doubts as to whether he can see it out on the climb to the line. Ruby Walsh will have a difficult decision to make here, but I expect he’ll ride Vautour, which may also mean Djakadam drifts to a yet more attractive price.
Another jockey with a decision to make is Bryan Cooper, who will probably partner current market leader Don Cossack over Don Poli. Gordon Elliott’s nine-year-old came of age last term, but his only defeat came here in the Ryanair Chase (third after a mistake two out) and he fell in the RSA
the season before. He has again looked good this term, winning on three occasions and he would surely have gone close but for coming down two out in the King George.The son of Sholokhov got back on track over 2m4f at Thurles in January and he might sport first time cheek pieces in the Gold Cup. For me, his best performances have come on flat tracks and I’m happy to take him on at the current odds.
We must also touch on Road To Riches and Carlingford Lough, with the latter coming out on top in their recent Irish Gold Cup meeting. Road To Riches appeared not to like the ground on that occasion and he can reverse form here.The British challenge is headed by the rejuvenated pairing of Cue Card and Smad Place. The former has won the Charlie Hall, Betfair and King George this season, with his victory in the Haydock contest particularly pleasing to the eye.The form of this year’s King George is very strong and he has winning form at the Festival, having won the Champion Bumper (2010) and the Ryanair (2013). Fourth in the Supreme and runnerup to an imperious Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle on his other two visits to the meeting, the evergreen 10-year-old clearly flourishes under such conditions. He is another with stamina to prove, but he has looked a thorough stayer this season and, for me, he is the biggest danger to a Mullins victory.
Smad Place has 16-and-a-half lengths to make up on Cue Card from the King George, but his chance was compromised that day by a change in tactics. Allowed to bowl along, he won a graduation chase at Kempton in early November, which teed him up perfectly to run away with the Hennessy and it was a similar result on trials day, when he pulled clear of Many Clouds, after Djakadam had departed.The grey is clearly much improved and Alan King is enjoying a fine season in terms of big race successes but, despite having been placed at three festivals (twice in the World Hurdle and runner-up in the RSA), he is 0 from 11 in Grade 1 races. 1.DJAKADAM (11/2) 2.VAUTOUR (9/2) 3.CUE CARD (13/2)
SHANTOU TO RELISH BETTER GROUND ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE PREVIEW
Despite suffering his first defeat on trials day, SHANTOU VILLAGE is fancied to bounce back to winning ways and land the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle. Neil Mulholland’s six-year-old thrashed the useful Delusionofgrandeur (now rated 140) by 19 lengths on his first start over hurdles before giving Champers On Ice 4lb and a 15-
I expect ruby walsh will ride Vautour, which may also mean Djakadam drifts to a yet more attractive price
length beating at the Open meeting.
He confirmed that form when runnerup to Yanworth on trials day and, despite relinquishing his 100% record, Shantou Village certainly came out of the race with plenty of credit. He failed to cope with the heavy ground and it was his class that enabled him to finish as close as he did. If the ground is likely to be good, he is expected to line up here on Gold Cup day (rather than the Neptune) and he makes plenty of appeal at his current price of 7/1.
On the same day he was beaten, Barters Hill was making it seven from seven in the River Don, but his performance was slightly under-whelming. Ben Pauling’s four-time bumper winner had earlier won easily at Huntingdon before beating Politologue in the Challow, again doing his best work late on. A game individual, he lacks nothing in guts and I think his chance would increase on soft ground.
Willie Mullins has plenty of options here and A Toi Phil or Balko Des Flos would warrant consideration if lining up, while Unowhatimeanharry also deserves plenty of consideration if running here rather than in the Pertemps. Along with Duke Des Champs who looked a thorough stayer in the making when winning at Ascot last time, he represents a bit of value. Both look thorough stayers and this is often a test.
1.SHANTOU VILLAGE (7/1) 2.BARTERS HILL (11/4) 3.UNOWHATIMEANHARRY (25/1)/DUKE DES CHAMPS (25/1)
GORBATOV WORTH ANOTHER CHANCE TRIUMPH HURDLE PREVIEW
Given the impression he created on his debut over hurdles at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting IVANOVICH GORBATOV is worth another chance to prove his Spring Juvenile running all wrong. Aidan O’Brien’s Montjeu gelding appealed as the type to take to the winter code when winning at Navan and a Leopardstown handicap on the Flat and he made an immediate impact, lowering the colours of the highly-regarded Let’s Dance.
The fact that Willie Mullins’ filly was able comprehensively to reverse form leads to me to believe that the selection didn’t run his race and, having won on good-to-firm on the level, he could be an altogether different proposition on quicker ground.Let’s Dance would be the other one I would take from the Spring Juvenile and she could well outrun her odds of 16/1.The Poliglote filly hit the front on the bridle and might just been suited by a strongly run race. Domestically, Alan King holds a strong hand with both Gibralfaro and Sceau Royal impressing in recent weeks.The former beat Paul Nicholls’ subsequent Contenders Hurdle winner Connetable at Ascot at Ascot and is another that should relish the Triumph test, while his stable-mate hurdles really fluently. He has strong course winning form and should go well.
The same owners have Fixe Le Kap to consider and he looks a smart juvenile. Clan Des Obeaux deserves the final mention, as he looked seriously smart on debut and travelled best when beaten on trials day. Whether he is ready for a Triumph is another matter. 1.IVANOVICH GORBATOV (5/1) 2. SCEAU ROYAL (8/1) 3.LET’S DANCE (16/1)
FRINGE LOOKS A CUT ABOVE FOXHUNTER CHASE CHALLENGE CUP PREVIEW
Last year’s winner ON THE FRINGE may have been well beaten at Leopardstown recently, but he has been beaten in that race before and he can follow up his 17length success from 12 months ago.
Held up off the pace last time, he never really looked like getting close to the winner and the 11-year-old is better judged on last season’s form.
Enda Bolger’s charge went on to follow up at Aintree and Punchestown and, if in the same sort of form that saw him complete the famous treble last spring, he remains the horse to beat.
The winner in 2012 and 2013,Salsify still warrants plenty of respect, despite pulling up last year. He showed he was back on song when finishing in front of On The Fringe recently and the Beneficial gelding is capable of going well at a big price.
Other Irish raiders to consider include recent Oldtown point-to-point first and second Aupcharlie and Marito. Both were useful performers under rules and deserve plenty of respect. Paul Nicholls could saddle last year’s Aintree second Pacha Du Polder, though this could stretch his stamina, while Philip Hobbs’ Mendip Express got off the mark in this sphere at Warwick recently and he won a handicap at Cheltenham in January 2014 off a mark of 139.
An expensive purchase with this race in mind, the King’s Theatre gelding could warm up by running at Haydock in late February. 1.ON THE FRINGE (3/1) 2.MENDIP EXPRESS (7/1) 3. SALSIFY (20/1)
HURRICANE HIGGINS ON THE UP COUNTY HURDLE PREVIEW
Though he is going to be forced to carry more weight than ideal, impressive Coral.ie Hurdle winner HENRY HIGGINS looks the type to go well in the County Hurdle. Charles O’Brien’s six-year-old was
winning for just the second time over hurdles on that occasion, but he had shown plenty of promise beforehand, notably the time before when cantering to the front in a strong race won by Blue Hell.
The change of tactics (held up right out the back) paid dividends last time and he was delivered to score handsomely by Robbie Power. Upped 9lb by the Irish assessor, I would be expecting him to get a mark in the mid-140s for this. He will be facing a tall order under a likely big weight, but the race will be run to suit.
Blue Hell also enters calculations, as he won well in the end at Fairyhouse and he will get a mark in the low 140s here. Alan Fleming’s Russian Blue gelding is another to take very seriously. Desoto County was a fast finishing third behind the selection last time and many will fancy him to reverse form on revised terms – he was given a UK mark of 137 ahead of the Betfair Hurdle. Along with Quick Jack and Tigris River, they complete the Irish shortlist. Philip Hobbs’ Wait For Me would be interesting if running here rather than the Supreme, though he will need to jump more fluently, while Startchitect, One For The Guv’Nr (especially on dry ground), Cyrius Morieviere, Greatwood second Superb Story and Winner Massagot are others to consider. 1.HENRY HIGGINS (16/1) 2.BLUE HELL (12/1) 3.DESOTO COUNTY (14/1)
SHADOW CAN STRIKE FOR SKELTON MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS’ HANDICAP HURDLE PREVIEW
Neptune entry WELSH SHADOW looks potentially well handicapped and would have sound claims in the Martin Pipe off 134. Runner-up to Yanworth on his debut over hurdles, the Wetherby bumper winner got off the mark in Listed company at Haydock before blowing out in the Tolworth Hurdle.The ground was atrocious at Sandown that day and the Dan Skelton yard were struggling for form around the turn of the year, so he can leave that behind.
That five-runner race has worked out extremely well, with O O Seven, Agrapart (Betfair Hurdle) and Cyrius Moriviere all coming out to score, and the step up in trip should suit. Hopefully Skelton will consider the handicap option.
Another couple of smart novices who would appeal as contenders here are Betfair Hurdle third Flying Angel who should appreciate better ground and stepping back up in trip, and Lake View Lad who would be an intriguing runner for the North. Nick Alexander’s strong travelling grey looks just the type to relish a strongly run race such as this and his regular rider would be able to maintain the partnership. Simply A Legend has been a model of consistency and would have sound claims if replicating his form on a left-handed track, while Nicky Henderson’s Laurium and Hunters Hoof are another pair of possibles. Jonjo O’Neill’s Montdragon is likely to be considered for this, as could course winner A Hare Breath, while the Irish challenge could be headed by Tigris River.
Finally, Willie Mullins has a cracking record in this and, depending how the English handicapper reacts, Open Eagle or Thomas Hobson could just scrape into this. 1.WELSH SHADOW (not quoted) 2.LAKE VIEW LAD (not quoted) 3.FLYING ANGEL (not quoted)
STILLETTO A SHOO IN FOR BIG PRIZE GRAND ANNUAL PREVIEW
There is no doubting that STILLETTO has his own ideas about the game, but there is also no denying he is a well handicapped horse and he could easily click in a big handicap this spring, with the Grand Annual a possible target. Formerly with Philip Hobbs, he won a decent beginners’ chase at Catterick on his chase debut, before travelling all over Kingmaker winner Violet Dancer at Newbury. Back up in trip, he tanked his way to the front and was still on the bridle when falling three out, but he remains very much of interest off 132.Paul Nicholls has entered his seven-year-old in several races while this feature goes to press and it might be that he needs to win one of those if he is to sneak into a festival handicap – would have got into this last year, but the novices’ handicap is likely to be considered, too.
Another novice to note is Neil Mulholland’s Minella Present who also bumped into Violet Dancer earlier in the season, after which he met trouble in running when finishing runner-up in a handicap at Cheltenham’s Open meeting. Freshened up over the winter, he goes well fresh on decent ground, so is a definite player. Last year’s winner Next Sensation is another that has been freshened up and has dropped to a mark from which he can run another big race, while Eastlake has also slipped down the ratings.In the same colours of the selection Alisier D’Irlande would be an intriguing runner, but he is likely to be saved for Aintree. 1.STILLETTO (not quoted) 2.MINELLA PRESENT (14/1) 3.NEXT SENSATION (14/1)