What the top trainers say about their Grand National chances
Stephen Mullen assesses the weights
MANY CLOUDS will defend his Grand National crown with just 1lb more on his back than when coming home first at Aintree last April. Phil Smith, the BHA’s head of handicapping, frames the weights for the Crabbie’s Grand National, the only race of the year where he has complete discretion and is able to deviate from official handicap ratings.
He says this is the best entry for a National he can ever remember and the defending champion has had the smallest weights rise in living memory. Smith said: “Many Clouds is only set to carry 1lb more than last year, although he is technically running off a f5lb higher mark. All that tells you is that it is a f4lb better race this year. Physically, he will be carrying only 1lb more, but the opposition is tougher.
“This is the highest-quality Grand National I have handicapped. There is quantity, quality and depth. There are a record a record 86 horses rated 140 and above and 55 horses between 140 and 149 – they are the sort horses I like as they give depth to a handicap. There are also a record 19 horses rated 155 and above.
“I debated for a while about who would be top-weight because I am a big Don Poli fan. I think based on the result at Aintree last year it was only reasonable that Many Clouds is top-weight. Don Poli is a horse that I am very sweet on and I don’t think we have got anywhere near the bottom of him yet.He is the most fascinating horse in the race in my opinion.
“There are one or two horses that have got really good form over the last three or four months. Kruzhlinin is one and the horse he beat, La Reve, who has won subsequently which is something you like to see – it looks strong form. About a year ago I was talking to the sponsors about a horse called the Last Samuri and he has done nothing but improve.
“Five of the last seven winners have carried 11 stone or more but there are two or three really nice progressive horses further down the handicap this year who look interesting.
“I think realistically horses on 10st 2lb will get in the race and if you are on 10st 1lb or 10st my advice is to get running and get winning because by doing so you will get to the top of your weight division.
“Pineau De Re (10st 2lb) was one of three or four horses whose weight I adjusted. He would normally have been off 10st and is on 10st 2lb. I also adjusted another horse with course form, the Becher winner Highland Lodge.”
Oliver Sherwood, trainer of last year’s winner Many Clouds, said: “I was staggered by the worldwide response to Many Clouds’ win last year with interest from everywhere including Japan, America and Australia.
“I couldn’t believe how much the Grand National means to the rest of the world. I was expecting 11st 10lb, anything less would have been a bonus. There are two Gold Cup and two King George winners in the race which says a lot for the race and where it is going.
“It is very different to last year when Many Clouds was being trained for the Gold Cup with the National something of an afterthought. It is very important Leighton Aspell rides Many Clouds. Nobody else has ridden him in a race or schooled him.”
Nicky Henderson still hasn’t managed to win the big race and is hoping to have three in it this time. He said: “We will certainly run all three horses if possible – Triolo d’Alene (11st), Bear’s Affair (10st 7lb) and Hadrian’s Approach (10st 6lb). It is an elusive race for us – we have been short of ammo for it over the last few years. Triolo is good and won at Kempton Park over two and a half miles.He has won a Hennessy and a Topham over the Grand National fences.
“Winning a Topham is quite easy but the Grand National is impossible. Triolo loved it the last time he was at Aintree and jumped beautifully.
“Hadrian’s Approach has not run for a bit but he is in really good shape. We were going to go to Kelso for the Ivan Straker
race but sadly, with the ground likely to be very soft up there, I don’t think we will be making the journey. So Hadrian has to find another route to Aintree.
“He has won a bet365 and good ground is going to be important. Bear’s Affair has won twice over the Mildmay Course at Aintree but that has no relevance to the Grand National. He is in good form though. We have had the second a couple of times in the Grand National but the race has been a bit elusive.”
Venetia Williams, who sent out the 2009 winner, Mon Mome, at 100/1, has seven possibles this time. She said: “Houblon Des Obeaux (11st 5lb) has got a stone more for winning what was probably a highfaluting veterans’ chase which I think is quite steep.
“It has to be decided whether he will run.He is nine and might have next year as an option. I think Aachen (10st 10lb) will definitely run if I can get him there – believe me that is the challenge.He is a tal- ented horse but it is quite a challenge to get him to the races. Fingers crossed.”
Robert Waley-Cohen, chairman of Cheltenham Racecourse and trainer and owner of Long Run (10st 8lb), said: “He is all right at the moment after having a problem with a foot a few weeks ago. He is now back cantering but he is not going to get to the Foxhunters’ at Cheltenham.
“We had to have a saver in the National just in case. Long Run was going sweetly at the time when he came down at Valentine’s first time around in 2014. He has not run for 22 months now so we will find out more when we run him back. He was rated 182 when he won the Gold Cup and he is now 149 in the Grand National. He is 11 and won his first Grade One at three so he has been going a very long time.”
Kim Bailey, who sent out the 1990 winner Mr Frisk, is going to be represented by The Last Samuri (10st 8lb). He said: “We have an outstanding chance. He has won at Kempton, jumps very well and gets the trip. He is the ideal National horse.”
Nigel Twiston-Davies, who has won the Grand National twice, with Earth Summit (1998) and Bindaree (2002), has six entries.He said: “Double Ross (10st 9lb) will definitely get in and he is lovely. Bally Beaufort (10st 1lb) is a novice who stays and jumps well and he is more exciting than the others.”
Tom George, trainer of last year’s second Saint Are, said: “I was very proud of the horse last year and look forward to 2016. He is very much a spring horse and thrives at this time of year. He is working better now.”
Fergal O’Brien, trainer of Alvarado who has finished fourth for the last two years, commented: “I was delighted to finish fourth with Alvarado again and win £52,000. It will be the same preparation as last year – we will keep him fresh and he will start off at Doncaster on February 24. Gordon Elliott captured the 2007 Grand National with Silver Birch. He has six entries this time around.He said: “Ucello Conti (10st 8lb) and Cause Of Causes (10st 1lb) would be my main ones for the race. I think the National is made for Ucello Conti and Daryl Jacob will ride him.”
David Pipe, successful with Comply Or Die in 2008, has seven engaged this year and is keenest on Soll (10st 11lb). He said: “Soll loves the ground there and jumps well.”
This is the highestquality Grand National I have handicapped. There is quantity, quality and depth