Graham Buddry looks at the jockeys and trainers
Graham Buddry offers some winning advice
Statistics are there to be shot at and they can’t all ring true all of the time, but they can be very informative pointers. I take race winning stats very seriously in big races, yet it’s only in the last few years I’ve realised the need to look harder at the jockey factor. Some are better over hurdles and some over fences and some also produce more winners on a certain type of course and less on another.
Over the past few years I have highlighted some of those regarding jockeys riding at the Cheltenham Festival and in some ways it was pleasing to see Ruby Walsh end his long five-year drought over fences last year, but all of the rest generally held firm.
Walsh is undoubtedly far more effective over hurdles on the Old Course and heavily backed favourites are his forte and, with the exception of Annie Power, these generally came through yet again while his lesser fancied rides once more proved the ones to steer shy of. No-one could ever be serious about avoiding a Walsh/Mullins hot-pot over timber, and I’m sure this is where his winners will come from again this year, but still beware those which aren’t clear favourites.
Bearing in mind his five-year wait for a Festival winner over fences, it is very much worth noting that although Walsh won twice over the bigger obstacles on two very short priced favourites, his other rides over birch returned figures of 4PP2, despite these all being Mullins trained. Look back another year and Walsh drew a blank over fences when all his mounts went off in single figures, including three favourites.
So, Ruby Walsh over fences, even though he kicked his five year wait into touch, still showed a loss for 2015.As such, it may still be wise to avoid Walsh mounts over the bigger obstacles unless very short priced favourites and perhaps even be wary of them. Certainly food for thought where Un De Sceaux and Douvan are concerned, but surely his other chase rides are still to be avoided.
One of the most important stats I highlighted last year actually concerned the champion trainer, Paul Nicholls, who had sent out around 100 horses over fences in the previous five years without a solitary winner. In 2015 Nicholls had another 14 runners over the bigger obstacles and another 13 of them were unplaced. The only exception was Dodging Bullets in the Champion Chase where the two favourites, Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy, both seriously underperformed. Dodging Bullets won well enough but the close proximity of old Somersby in second place raises severe doubts about the quality of the form.
As such, with only one winner over fences from nearly 120 runners spanning six years, Nicholls-trained chasers still have to be avoided like the plague, especially since the champion trainer seems rather out of form (and top class prospects) this season with only a single grade one success to show so far.
It was an emotional farewell from Tony McCoy who scored his sole victory on the third day of the meeting, highlighted as the best day to catch a winner from the champ.
Over the past six years 63% of the Grade 1 races (not including the bumper) have been won by just four jockeys, Barry Geraghty (18), Walsh (16), Davy Russell and McCoy (both on 8), so it will be interesting to see who steps up to fill the McCoy void.
In the same period around 87% of the Grade 1 races had fallen to the very best jockeys around with just Adrian Heskin, Gavin Shehan, Nick Scholfield and Nico De Boinville getting in on the act last year, so it should still pay dividends to look at only those ridden by the very best jockeys in the Grade 1 events.
It is also worth noting the specific statistics regarding some of the top jockeys over the two different types of obstacles and, more especially, over the two different courses. The Old Course on the first two days rides very differently to the New Course on the last two and some jockeys have a very marked preference.
Geraghty has always shown a strong preference for the Old Course, and in 2015 hit his expected mark yet again with four horses in the money on the first two days with only two on the final two days, at least hitting a winner over each course.
With the exception of 2014, Russell has excellent form on the Old Course with abysmal returns on the New. Last year it was back to normal with 100% winners on the first two days (two from two) and failing to trouble the judge at all on the New Course. Past stats also showed his prefer---
ence for chases, so his 16/1 winner over fences on Day 2 was far from unexpected.
Paul Townend was highlighted again last year for his excellent record on the Old Course and especially over hurdles. A winner and two more second places were added to with a winner over fences. Around the New Course Townend snagged a winner over hurdles but failed to make the first three on his other six rides.
Richard Johnson was marked as one to avoid over hurdles (the heavily backed Fingal Bay in 2014 being the only exception to this rule) and this proved true again in 2015 with none of his mounts making the first four. He previously had a good strike rate over fences where 50% of his rides made the first four but last year only one obliged out of seven. He’s still a jockey to avoid over hurdles with the hope that last year was just a rare blip over the bigger obstacles.
The most pleasing stat from last year was Tom Scudamore who had a positive health warning against backing him over hurdles, and even fences over the Old Course were ones to avoid while marking him as the jockey to follow over fences during the last two days. Scudamore returned a solitary second place and seven unplaced efforts over timber in 2015 and his rides over fences on the first two days were also unplaced. His Gold Cup mount was run off its feet but his only other ride over fences on the New Course (which I’m happy to say I backed blindly) romped in at 16/1.
It is still too soon to get any reliable statistics around Sam Twiston-Davies or Bryan Cooper but hopefully you’ll find some of the above helpful again in that annual battle with the bookies. So far it looks like Cooper has a penchant for Grade 1 chasers and Twiston-Davies with lower quality hurdlers.
Last year the top of my list for Cheltenham was Faugheen, hardly original but he did the business well. The other two I highlighted were both novice chasers, King’s Palace and Coneygree, the latter of whom I wrote that I thought he could go all the way to the top, even before his win at Newbury, and if they avoided each other I could see them both winning.
King’s Palace was the one I thought more likely to go for Gold but he stayed in his own class and jumped unusually poorly. Coneygree, on the other hand, went the bold route, the rain fell, I lumped on at 10/1 and collected handsomely after a most perfect round as he landed the Blue Riband of our sport. What a shame he has to miss this year due to a niggling injury.
This year Faugheen looks invincible in the Champion Hurdle and Thistlecrack looks to have the World Hurdle at his mercy, but surely the best bet of the week isn’t any of the odds-on Mullins Brigade but the hugely impressive Yanworth in the Neptune. I feel the bookies are going to take a pounding like never before as all bar the big handicaps have exceptionally strong contenders at the front of the markets.
The Gold Cup this year looks very open but that could be deceiving. Having looked at it yet again I think I may have cracked it, although I have no doubt that Coneygree would have doubled up had he been sound.
The first place to start with the 32 still standing their ground as I write this piece is to put a firm line through all bar the nine at the forefront of the betting as the rest seem to have hopeless form for a race of this class.
Of those remaining, Smad Place, however excellent his form has been this season, has still to win a Grade 1 event and I can’t see him starting here. No More Heroes is still a novice and although I was very strong on Coneygree last year, it could well be another 34 years before the next novice lands the big prize and with the depth of the Gigginstown challenge I’m sure he’ll run elsewhere anyway.
I have always thought that some of the Irish form may be suspect, especially when Grade 1 races over there are often three or four runner affairs with a 1/5 favourite. Don’t get me wrong, I love many of the Irish horses but this isn’t about
National pride, it’s about finding the winner. On that note, horses like Beef or Salmon were brilliant in their own back yards but never won in Britain. As such Road to Riches is the next to be crossed out along with Valseur Lido. Both have run more than once in Britain and both are yet to win here.
For the same reason I have a firm line through Don Cossack. Five times he has come to England (twice to Cheltenham), three times as favourite and not jumped well, and although he has won a single race here, it was against a very much out of form Cue Card and a generally poor field, the best of which fell. At Kempton he was bustled backwards at one stage by the pace and then boxed in and I feel he is the type who prefers to dominate smaller fields and lesser opposition. Do I think he will win the Gold Cup? A definite no.
Djakadam is yet another who has never won on this side of the Irish sea and as much as he ran well at Cheltenham last year, the year before he didn’t jump well and hit the deck. He ran there again at the end of January and I heavily opposed him that day and was less than surprised when he tipped up again. Don Poli is another who I am not a fan of. Yes, he’s won two from two at Cheltenham but the form of last year’s RSA is extremely doubtful. The only other horse in the entire field which has won anything since then landed a solitary handicap hurdle at Wincanton. Every other horse has failed to win since.
Most recently Don Poli was an all out half length winner from First Lieutenant and that hardly inspires confidence at this level.Don Poli won the RSA last year in fine style but then finished last of five when odds on at Punchestown and although he’s won both races this term, the other being a Listed race victory over three rivals at Aintree, I simply can’t be having him in the biggest race of them all. Although three RSA winners since Arkle have won the Gold Cup, far more defy their big reputations and fall away to mediocrity and Don Poli could be another.
In the style of Sherlock Holmes, where when you rule out the impossible, whatever is left, must be the winner, this narrows the field down to just two possible victors.
Of those, Vautour was less than convincing over 2m5f at Ascot. He also has two from two at Cheltenham but has only run twice beyond 2½ miles. The other race was the King George at Kempton, where it is considered the easiest course to see out three miles but Vautour seemed to tie up badly close home and didn’t strike me as being able to stay an extended 3¼ miles. I can see him running a big race until around three out and then fade badly from there.
This leaves just Cue Card, a horse I was once adamant could never stay three miles but has proved me wrong more than once. I did learn my lesson though and he carried my money in the King George but it was the way he battled and really saw out that trip that impressed me most.
He’s never won beyond three miles but then again he has only attempted to do so once and all his recent wins are supplemented by the close-up comments of “stayed on gamely” , “clear before the last, easily”, “kept on well” and “stayed on well to draw clear”. Some still doubt he can get the Gold Cup distance but he loves Cheltenham and is in the form of his life. With all the negatives about the other leading contenders Cue Card stands out to me as the one to be on.