Itemising the trends in Festival’s Championship races
Championship race trends
It’s almost here folks – the 2016 Cheltenham Festival is arguably the highlight of the horse racing calendar for most of us racing nuts and, once again, we’ve bundles to get excited about. Willie Mullins will have his continued stranglehold on the meeting as he hunts down a fifth ‘top trainers’ title at the Festival and with favourites, in almost half of the 28 races it will be a brave man that bets against him ending the week with the most winners.
It will also be the first festival in many-ayear without the former champion jockey AP McCoy, which makes life even easier for Ruby Walsh as the silver fox pilot eyes his 10th ‘top jockeys title’.
All-in-all we are set for another crackerjack Festival with not only plenty of battles on the turf but we can expect plenty of blows traded between punter and bookie – keep an eye out for the array of bookie offers that will be heading your way.But to help try and find the winners of the four championship races I’ve got all the key trends listed below. Have a fun Festival!
2016 CHAMPION HURDLE
Day one always kicks-off with the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and when the tape goes up the roar can often be heard in Cheltenham Town centre. However, we all know the Champion Hurdle is the feature on day one and this year it looks set to be a funny old race.
It was all-change in the market after the news that the current champ – Faugheen – will miss the race after picking up an injury. A huge blow for ante-post favourite backers and for those that had already loaded on the Willie Mullins opening day four-timer.
However, all might not be lost, as despite Mullins losing last year’s winner of the race, it further backs-up just how much strength in-depth the yard have as they’ve still several of the leading players.
There is even a strong chance that their classy mare – Annie Power – will be targeted at the Champion Hurdle instead of the mares’ race.
Annie Power would be bidding to become the first mare since Flakey Dove (1994) to land the Champion Hurdle, but punters will also have not forgotten about her late tumble in the mares’ race 12 months ago – so is she value?
Mullins has last year’s runner-up Arctic Fire still in the race, as well as Nichols Canyon, who beat Faugheen earlier this season, so there is still a massive chance of Mullins not only winning the race again, but also bagging another 1-2, or 1-2-3!
The UK-based challenge is pretty weak with The New One the shortest in the market, but the Nigel Twiston-Daviestrained horse seems to have just fallen short of the very top grade and his two previous tries in the race have seen him finish third and fifth.
My Tent Or Yours could be a surprise package for the Nicky Henderson yard, who are no strangers at landing this race with a big-priced horse – Punjabi caused an upset in 2009 at 22/1. This 9-year-old has had no-end of issues but has reportedly been working well in his build-up to this. Don’t forget he was only beaten ¼ of a length in the 2014 renewal so if anywhere near that form would have a cracking each-way chance around 25/1.
Champion Hurdle Trends
12/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out 12/13 – Had raced at Cheltenham before 11/13 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks 11/12 – Had finished in the top 4 in a Cheltenham Festival race the season before 11/13 – Aged 8 or younger 11/13 – Rated 159 or higher 10/13 – Had won 6 or more times over hurdles before 9/13 – Irish bred winners 9/13 – Won last time out 9/13 – Placed favourites 8/13 – Had won at Cheltenham before 8/13 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old 8/13 – Irish trained winners 7/13 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting 6/13 – Winning distance – 2 1/2 lengths or more 5/13 – Ran in the previous season’s Champion Hurdle 5/13 – Had won a race at the Cheltenham Festival the previous season 5/13 - Winning favourites (1 joint) 3/13 – Trained by Willie Mullins 2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all) The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 9.6/1
Champion Hurdle Stats:
5 year-olds are just 2 from 95 since 1985 26 of the last 32 winners won their previous race 21 of the last 30 winners were placed in the top 4 at the previous season’s Cheltenham Festival 18 of the last 20 winners had a race that calendar year (i.e had run in 2015) 22 of the last 25 winners hailed from the first 6 in the betting market Just 2 of the last 25 Christmas Hurdle winners has gone onto win the Champion Hurdle that season (But Faugheen did the double in 2014-15) Irish-trained horses have won 11 of the last 17 renewals
CHAMPION CHASE
Former winners Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy are not getting any younger at 10 years-old and this will probably be the
last year for this pair to take this race.
Last year’s hero – Dodging Bullets – can’t be forgotten despite not being out this term. He’s still only 8 years-old and although he’s had his issues this season the Paul Nicholls camp are sure to have him ready to give it a good crack at defending his title – he looks a fair eachway option in the race, as does last year’s third Special Tiara.
The Tingle Creek has always been a good guide to the winner in recent years – 11 of the last 15 winners ran in that Sandown Park contest. That was backed up again 12 months ago with Dodging Bullets landing both races, so that’s a plus for Sire De Grugy, who took this season’s Sandown race in December.
Add in that 10 of the last 13 winners had won last time out, and that 11 of the last 13 had raced over fences at Cheltenham before then these are further pluses in favour of the past winners – Dodging Bullets, Sprinter Sacre and Sire de Grugy. However, there is one huge fly in the ointment for these horses – Un De Sceaux!
The Willie Mullins yard are yet to land this Championship race, but last season’s Arkle Chase victor looks set to go off odds-on here, and after his 5 length slamming of Sire De Grugy at Ascot in January makes him the clear one to beat.He’s won 5 of his 7 chase starts with his only blips coming when falling twice. Those against him will cling to his potential jumping frailties, but barring the Tingle Creek trend this 8 year-old ticks most of the other key stats and previous Arkle winners have generally fared well when stepping up to the next level – so we could be seeing a Mullins-trained winner of this race for the first time this year.
Champion Chase Trends
13/13 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks 11/13 – Had won at least 5 times over fences before 11/13 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before 10/13 – Won last time out 10/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting 10/13 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting 9/13 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more 8/13 – Placed favourites 7/13 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before 6/13 – Irish bred 6/13 – French bred 5/13 –Won by an Irish-based horse 5/13 – Won the Arkle Chase the previous season 5/13 – Winning favourites 4/13 – Ran in the Tied Cottage Chase (Punchestown) last time out 3/13 – Ran in the Game Spirit Chase (Newbury) last time out 2/13 – Had won the race before The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 9/2
Other Champion Chase Stats
11 of the last 15 winners ran in that season’s Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown) 19 of the last 31 winners had previously won at the Cheltenham Festival 33 of the last 34 winners returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting Last 14 Arkle Chase winners to run the next season in this have finished placed or better 13 of the last 14 winners had won a Grade One Chase previously
WORLD HURDLE
The dominate days of Baracouda, Inglis Drever and Big Buck’s are over, but last year’s shock winner, Cole Harden, will be trying to prove that wrong as he lines-up to defend his title. He’s still only 7 year-old and if the ground is quicker come the Festival then he can expect an improved performance from what he’s shown so far this season. He’s been well-beating both times this term by Camping Ground and Thistlecrack so it’s no surprise last year’s winner is down the betting.
At this stage of writing we are still unsure if the Mullins pair of Vroum Vroum Mag and Annie Power will head here or to
other Festival targets, but once they decide which one will run in this race then we can surely expect that horse to be well-supported. Yes, it’s another of the big Cheltenham races the Mullins team are yet to win, but these two exciting mares will give them a strong say.
If we look at the key trends then we’ll see the standout stats are that 12 of the last 13 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out, while ALL of the last 28 renewals were won by horses that finished in the top 4 last time out – including last year’s winner, Cole Harden.
However, this year’s race revolves around Colin Tizzard’s improved performer, Thistlecrack. His 8 year-old has looked a different horse this season and heads here as the bookies favourite, plus the clear one to beat after wins in the Long Distance, Long Walk and Cleeve Hurdles.
The Cleeve and Long Walk Hurdles are the best recent guides so that’s another positive for Thistlecrack, who landed the Cleeve Hurdle by 12 lengths at Cheltenham back in January.
It’s a race the Irish don’t have the best of records in with just one victory in the last 16 years, so Willie Mullins will be trying to change that, but the stats suggest the winner of this race will come from the top three in the betting, raced in the last 10 weeks, being aged 8 (or younger) and that finished in the first two last time out – step forward Thistlecrack!
The Cleeve and Long Walk Hurdles are the best recent guides so that’s another positive for Thistlecrack
World Hurdle Betting Trends
12/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting 12/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out 12/13 – Had raced within the last 10 weeks 11/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting 11/13 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before 11/13 – Went onto run at the Aintree Grand National Meeting later that season 10/13 –Winning distance – 2 1/2 lengths or less 10/13 – Aged 8 or younger 10/13 – Placed favourites 9/13 – Had won over hurdles at Cheltenham before 9/13 – Won their latest race 9/13 – Had raced that calendar year 8/13 – Rated 163 or higher 8/13 – Contested either the Cleeve Hurdle (5) or the Long Walk Hurdle (3) last time out 7/13 – French-bred 6/13 – Went onto win at Aintree later that season 5/13 – Winning favourite 4/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls 4/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh 1/13 – Irish-trained winners
Other World Hurdle Stats
Every winner since 1972 has been aged 6 or older Since 1972 there have been 7 previous winners of the race to win again Horses that ran at the previous season’s Cheltenham Festival are 18 from 22 Horses that were placed fourth or better last time out have won the last 28 renewals The top five in the betting have finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd in 7 of the last 12 renewals Just one Irish-trained winner since 1996 – Solwhit (2013) All of the last 28 winners were aged 9 or younger
CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP
Onto the ‘big one’ and despite its competitive nature we’ve actually seen 7 of the last 13 renewals going to the favourite, while 9 of the last 13 market leaders went onto be placed in the race.
If we start with the age trend then we can see that ALL of the last 13 winners had been aged 9 or younger – with the last horse to win the Gold Cup aged in double-figures being Cool Dawn in 1998. A positive stat for those at the head of the betting, but not great for this season’s Betfair Chase and King George winner, Cue Card, who is now a 10 year-old and will be chasing a £1million bonus if he adds the Gold Cup to his impressive haul this season.
Surprisingly, this is yet another of the main races that leading Irish trainer Willie Mullins is yet to take this showpiece race. He’s saddled the runner-up for the past three years though, so is clearly knocking at the door, and looks to have a one of his best hands in recent years with the likes of Don Poli, Djackadam and Vautour all figuring towards the head of the market at the time of writing.
10 of the last 13 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out so that trend will knock a fair few out, especially if coupled with the age trend. Previous course experience is another ‘must-have’ with 12 of the last 13 winners having raced at Cheltenham in the past – a plus for most of these.
With all the trends considered then, for me, Don Cossack, will be having the bulk of my money. Gordon Elliot’s 9 year-old was looking set to be a big player in the King George on Boxing Day before hitting the deck in the home straight, but has since shown that experience hasn’t left its mark with an easy win at Thurles over an inadequate 2 m 4 f. Yes, he often runs a bit like a lazy horse and can hit a few flat spots in his races, but barring that fall at Kempton he’s done little wrong winning 5 of his last 6 starts over fences. He’s sure to relish the stiff finish and despite disappointing at the Festival last season - when third in the Ryanair - I think he looks a better horse this term and the longer trip on this year’s Cheltenham visit is surely a huge plus, so I’ll be going for Cossack to collect gold this year.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Betting Trends
13/13 – Aged 9 or younger 12/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting 12/13 – Had raced within the last 3 months 11/13 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before 10/13 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more 11/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out 11/13 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before 9/13 – Irish bred 9/13 – Placed favourites 9/13 – Won last time out 8/13 – Had won 5 or more times over fences in the UK or Ire before 8/13 – Had last raced in the previous year 8/13 – Rated 170 or higher 7/13 – Winning favourites 7/13 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before 5/13 – Last race was in the King George VI Chase (Kempton) 3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls 3/13 – Irish-trained winner 3/13 –Won the Denman Chase (Newbury) last time out 2/13 – Ran in the Lexus Chase last time out The average winning SP in the last 13 renewals is 5/1
Other Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats
Only one horse (Kauto Star 2009) has ever regained the race 21 of the last 22 winners have been aged 9 or younger 9 of the last 14 winners came here fresh – did not race that same calendar year 13 of the last 15 winners were rated 166 or higher 15 of the last 17 winners had won a race already that current season 11 of the last 15 winners had finished second or better at the Cheltenham Festival before 10 of the last 16 winners had Run in that season’s King George VI Chase (Kempton) All of the previous 16 winners had won a Grade One contest before The last winner aged older than 10 was in 1969 (What a Myth,12)