Paul Ferguson looks at the card on World Hurdle Day
Cheltenham Day Three
The winner of the three top staying hurdle races in England already this season THISTLECRACK can complete the four-timer in the one that matters most, the World Hurdle.The eightyear-old only really burst onto the staying scene when causing an upset at Aintree’s Grand National meeting last year, after which he went down by half-a-length to Killultagh Vic at Punchestown.
Hopefully a few Racing Ahead readers took the hint in my December column, when suggesting that he was the potential value in this division (25/1 at the time) and he duly made a winning return in Newbury’s Long Distance Hurdle.
Colin Tizzard’s Kayf Tara gelding bettered that when running away with the Long Walk at Ascot and he quashed any concerns over his ability to handle Cheltenham’s undulations when easily winning the Cleeve on trials day. It had appeared that top-class mare Annie Power might be in the World Hurdle mix, but then came the Faugheen bombshell and the knock-on effect probably means that Thistlecrack has less on his plate than may have been the case.
Assuming mare number one gets supplemented for the Champion and Vroum Vroum Mag goes down the mares’ route, Thistlecrack’s main danger may well come from Alpha Des Obeaux who would have finished runner-up to him at Aintree when he took a heavy fall at the last. Another who has improved this term, he stayed on well to win the Galmoy Hurdle last time and is likely to improve for meet- ing better ground in the spring.
Last year’s winner, Cole Harden, has steadily been brought back to fever pitch by trainer Warren Greatrex and he is another who will be praying for a dry week.The son of Westerner is only a seven-year-old and a reproduction of last year’s effort ought to see him in the shakeup once again.
Next in the betting is Aux Ptits Soins who looked a seriously exciting prospect when winning the Coral Cup on his British debut last year, on what was just his third start over hurdles.He defied his inexperience to win that handicap off 139 and the six-year-old was expected to develop into a high-class novice chaser this season.But he met with a setback in the early part of the season and Paul Nicholls decided to take his time with him and has always said he would return in the World Hurdle.
Winning this race on his reappearance would be a hell of a performance, however, and, though he remains a horse of considerable potential, he is up against it here.
Further down the betting, last year’s Albert Bartlett winner Martello Tower (33/1) has ground to make up with Alpha Des Obeaux from last time but was slow to come to hand in the early part of the season, while Kilcooley (25/1) has probably been forgotten by many, as he hasn’t been sighted since winning the West Yorkshire Hurdle. 1.THISTLECRACK (5/4) 2.ALPHA DES OBEAUX (7/1) 3.COLE HARDEN (8/1)
OUT OF THIS WORLD JLT NOVICES’ CHASE PREVIEW
Despite the absence of Killultagh Vic, Willie Mullins is still fancied to land a third JLT since 2012 with the Gigginstown House Stud-owned OUTLANDER. A Grade 2 winner over hurdles last season, the Stowaway gelding had always looked a chaser in waiting and he has taken really well to fences, winning all three starts to date. After beating the well-regarded Free Expression on debut, he confirmed the form in a Grade 2 at Limerick over Christmas before impressively fending off Monksland in the Grade 1 Flogas Novice Chase at Leopardstown.The eight-
year-old makes a lovely shape over his fences and, while he looks the type who will get 3m in time, this trip is ideal for now, given the ease with which he moves through his races.
The one slight concern with Outlander is he could finish only sixth in last year’s Neptune, when appearing to get slightly outpaced. Maybe the ground was quicker than ideal, but I’m prepared to put it down to how that race was run and, on the stiffer New course as opposed to the Old course last term, I think he will act fine. His jumping should ensure he holds his position.
Genuinely good ground is also a relative unknown for favourite Bristol De Mai, although he did finish third in the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle at Aintree last April. Clearly fully effective on deep ground, Nigel Twiston-Davies’ five-year-old has gone from strength to strength over fences and boasts twice the amount of experience of the selection, winning four of his six chase starts.The grey jumps for fun and was a joy to watch at Haydock on his penultimate start before landing the Grade 1 Scilly Isles. He will look to get his rivals in trouble with his fencing on the front end. Shaneshill headed the betting for this before flopping at Doncaster, although he hadn’t totally convinced in winning his first two over fences, while Garde La Victoire and Sizing John are more likely to run in the Arkle. The latter would make plenty of appeal from an each-way perspective if re-routed to this race, with the better ground likely to be a huge positive for Henry De Bromhead’s charge.
Should More Of That switch from the RSA to the JLT, he would be the selection but we have to assume he runs the day before at this stage, so we can look further down the betting for an each-way alternative to the top pair. Zabana was impressive on his debut over fences and he finished runner-up in last year’s Coral Cup, but he needs to leave behind a disappointing run behind Outlander in the Flogas last time.If he can, he is capable of going well, while Three Musketeers looked really good when winning at Newbury, before bombing out in the Dipper on New Year’s Day. Dan Skelton’s horses were struggling at the time and he might be worth another chance. Finally, Stilletto would still interest me if running here rather than in a handicap. 1.OUTLANDER (6/1) 2.BRISTOL DE MAI (7/2) 3.SIZING JOHN (12/1) / THREE MUSKETEERS (20/1)
CHAMPAGNE TO CAUSE UPSET RYANAIR CHASE PREVIEW
Though his jumping is a cause for concern CHAMPAGNE WEST is worth chancing at a big price in an open looking Ryanair Chase. Philip Hobbs’ lightlyraced eight-year-old has a fine record at the course, winning twice from three starts as a novice last term and he ran a blinder on his reappearance in December, when trying to concede a stone to stable-mate Village Vic. Pulled-up when last seen on trials day, when a serious error put pay to any chance he had down the back and he hit one very hard the time before. Obviously that is a concern, but the horse has the natural ability to prove himself a serious Grade 1 performer and, if he can put in a clear round, he is capable of going very close in what could be a below-par renewal.
Given he is still rated 154 and Village Vic is now up to 157, it could be that Hobbs opts to send him down the handicap route, but I would let him take his chance here, in the hope that he gets into a rhythm. With several firms already offering NRNB on this contest, he is worth supporting eachway at 20/1.
Before we go through the possible dangers/alternatives, this Ryanair preview is very much based on the assumption that Vautour runs in the Gold Cup – should he turn up here, he is without doubt the most likely winner.In fact, I would expect him to outclass this field. Also assuming that Road To Riches runs in the big one, the market is likely to be headed by Al Ferof and Valseur Lido and, of the pair, I would certainly favour the latter. He finished third in the JLT last year and, though his
Currently available at double-figure odds, I imagine cup final will be heavily backed in the build up to the race
best form comes right-handed, he would have gone very close in the Irish Gold Cup but for falling at the last.
Smashing arrives here at the top of his game and is another capable of going well. Despite much of his form coming on heavy ground, he did run well here in the Coral Cup a couple of years ago. Vibrato Valtat needs to prove his stamina over this trip, while Josses Hill still needs to convince with his fencing, despite improving on that score last time.
I’d consider giving him a bit longer and heading to Aintree, if he were mine. Runner-up in the race last year, Ma Filleule, would surely go close if recapturing that form. Nicky Henderson’s mare hasn’t quite been in the same form this term, but did win last time and has a fine Festival record, having finished runnerup to Holywell in 2014.
Finally, 40/1 shot Annacotty deserves a mention, given he is a three times course winner. Two of those victories came this season, in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and in the race in which Champagne West was pulled-up in, and Alan King’s Beneficial gelding could well outrun his odds if the ground came up soft or worse.
1.CHAMPAGNE WEST (20/1) 2.VALSEUR LIDO (8/1) 3.MA FILLEULE (20/1)
CUP FINAL TO SCORE PERTEMPS NETWORK FINAL PREVIEW
The light-raced and progressive CUP FINAL ensured his participation in the Pertemps Final when winning a Musselburgh qualifier recently and he can provide trainer Nicky Henderson with a second successive victory in the race.Off the track for 14 months, Cup Final was heavily backed and finished strongly under Barry Geraghty to score off a mark of 132 and has subsequently been put up 7lbs. The form of his Sandown success on his penultimate start, back in December 2014, now reads well and the well-bred chestnut still appeals as a potentially well-handicapped horse.
Currently available at double-figure odds, I imagine he will be heavily backed in the build up to the race.
Runner-up to the selection last time, Warriors Tale, travelled well while Unowhatimeanharry won an Exeter qualifier off 138 recently and would have to be high on any shortlist. The Warren Greatrex-trained Missed Approach won easily at Newbury in November, but was subsequently hit hard by the handicapper (up 17lbs to 140). Clearly well in last time, Greatrex believes his six-year-old will improve for better ground and has deliberately been kept fresh for this.
In the same colours of the selection If In Doubt would be an interesting runner, though he is likely to be given an entry over fences, too. Rated 146 after winning a Wincanton qualifier on Boxing Day, the eight-year-old warrants respect wherever he turns up.
Finally, Our Kaempfer deserves a mention, but I hope he runs in the Coral Cup (see Wednesday’s preview). 1.CUP FINAL (10/1) 2.MISSED APPROACH (10/1) 3.IF IN DOUBT (16/1)
CALL FOR THE DOCTOR! BROWN ADVISORY & MERRIEBELLE STABLE PLATE PREVIEW
Having won the race three times since 2010, David Pipe knows exactly what is required to win the Plate and his novice DOCTOR HARPER looks an ideal candidate this time around.The eight-year-old, who won a 3m handicap hurdle at Aintree’s Grand National meeting back in April 2014,returned to action in December after a season off. After blowing away the cobwebs over hurdles, he was wellbeaten by L’Ami Serge on his chase debut, before catching the eye when running on behind Garde La Victoire at Ludlow. Off the mark in effortless fashion at Leicester in January, he has been handed a mark of 141 and is one that has to be kept onside. Likely to be entered in the longer handicap chases, too, he is 1lb too high for the novice handicap, and, though he is favourite for the Kim Muir, I think this is the race for him – I can’t see him stepping up from 2m to 3m2f.
Stable-mate Unique De Cotte is another handicapper I want onside, but he will need to run again before the Festival, while the likes of Taquin Du Seuil (157), Champagne West (154) and Village Vic (157) would surely find life tough off their respective lofty marks. Another Pipe runner Monetaire has dropped to the mark from which he was an unlucky second last year and, while he hasn’t shown much since, he wouldn’t be the first runner from the stable to spark back into life at this meeting. Paul Nicholls’ novice
Sametegal would be worth considering if lining up, though he would need to jump more fluently. If back on song Irish Cavalier would be worth considering, along with Venetia Williams’ Aso, given his yard’s record in the race. 1.DOCTOR HARPER (not quoted) 2. MONETAIRE (20/1) 3.IRISH CAVALIER (16/1)
COGRY HAS THE PROFILE FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP PREVIEW
Sixth in the National Hunt Chase last year, COGRY shaped well when fourth at the Open meeting and appeals as a likely type for the Kim Muir. Nigel Twiston-Davies won this contest with Same Difference in 2013 so I would presume it is being considered for this King’s Theatre gelding, who ran well over an inadequate trip last time.
The form of his fourth here earlier in the season reads well in the context of this race and, though he holds entries in the Eider and the Grand National, I would be heading back to Cheltenham if he were mine. Runner-up in that November handicap, Upswing, would be another possible for this, though he is currently rated 139 and is likely to run while this feature goes to press – were he to win, he would be close to the 145 limit.
Still a novice, Jonjo O’Neill has the option of running him in the four-miler, but this would appeal as a more suitable opportunity. Perfect Candidate is another from the same handicap to consider, with Fergal O’Brien’s charge winning at the track on New Year’s Day, while Doctor Harper has to get a mention, in case this is his chosen target. As stated, I think the Plate will the race for him. Should Cogry skip the race, the yard also have Ballykan to consider.
Recent Kempton winner Silvergrove could be reunited with Tom David, who rode the horse at Sandown, on what was his debut for Ben Pauling.He looks most progressive. 1.COGRY (not quoted) 2.UPSWING (not quoted) 3.SILVERGROVE (16/1)
LIMINI ILLUMINATES DAWN RUN MARES’ NOVICES’ HURDLE PREVIEW
It is difficult to get away from LIMINI for the inaugural running of this race. The daughter of Peintre Celebre won a warm maiden hurdle at Punchestown in May and easily landed a Grade 3 last time.
There aren’t too many exciting mares in this division this season and it could be that her main danger comes from her own stable, in the shape of Listen Dear. We’ve not seen the Robin Des Champs mare since Down Royal in October, when she won a Grade 3 by 16 lengths. Brian Ellison’s progressive Smart Talk warrants respect, while Nicky Henderson’s Chocca Wocca is the one I am most interested in, despite the fact she hasn’t jumped a hurdle in public (at the time of writing). An easy win before the Festival could see this well bred six-year-old enter calculations – she looked speedy when winning a Ludlow bumper last season. 1. LIMINI (EVS) 2. LISTEN DEAR (10/1) 3.CHOCCA WOCCA (14/1)