How to find winners in the big handicaps
Tim Rands looks at the way to find solid form lines
Understanding the potential and limitations of handicappers can be a tricky business – but taking the time to gauge the merit of their performances is imperative if you want to stay ahead of the game.
Handicaps are usually battles of horses on their way up the handicap, horses on their way down the handicap, and horses stuck in no man’s land – and you often have to delve deeply into the form of races to work out if a horse’s performance was as good as it looked, better than it looked, or whether it wasn’t all it seemed and is therefore worth taking on.
However,study handicaps properly and you’ll soon find yourself with some solid form-lines which will hopefully continue to produce winners throughout the season.
ON THE WAY UP
Improving handicappers are often the hardest type of handicappers to get a handle on, and the ceiling of their improvement is, unfortunately, an uncertain quantity. However, you can use the other horses in their races (collateral form) to gauge the merit of a performance. If a horse beats other improvers, horses that are back down to a winning mark,or horse that are in form and running for in-form trainers, it is likely that the horse in question may still have improvement to come, and could be worth backing again next time out.However,the opposite is also true.If a horse that looks to have improved has done so when running against exposed horse,horses above their last winning marks, or horse from out of form stables – then be very wary of backing them next time out.
ON THE WAY DOWN
Once a horse has been raised by the handicapper for winning a race, if it doesn’t win on its next few starts, the handicapper will start to drop it again in the ratings. One of the best ways to pick winners, is to wait for a handicapper to return to a winning mark, and its winning chance will often coincide with a drop in class and/or a return to one of its favourite racetracks.Many horses may also revert to a distance over which they have previously won, and run on ground for which they have shown a past preference.
NO MAN’S LAND
A horse in no man’s land is one that is above its last winning mark, and stuck on a mark that it’s already shown it can’t obviously win off. However, these horses will win races, and spotting the ones that might can be the way to picking some seriously big-priced winners.For example, if an exposed horse is set to run off 3lb above its last winning mark,it’s tempting to wait for it to drop that extra 3lb before backing it. But what if it’s pitched against exposed handicappers who are all 5lb or more above their last winning marks – making it probably the best handicapped horse in the field. Even better, what if it’s running against a couple of improvers from big stables, whose form you don’t rate because they only beat exposed handicappers last time. Just ask yourself how many times a horse you’ve been waiting for to drop a few pound has won with none of your money on it?Yes,lots of times – and it’s probably because you didn’t dig deep enough into the form book!
If you want to bet – bet like a Betting God!