Paul Ferguson assesses Queen Mother Chase Day
Paul Ferguson previews Day Two at Cheltenham
QUEEN MOTHER CHASE PREVIEW
Unbeaten in five completed starts over fences, UN DE SCEAUX is building up a similar profile to former dual Champion Chase winner Moscow Flyer and Willie Mullins’ eight-year-old is very much the one to beat in the day two feature. Verging on Champion Hurdle class a couple of years ago, the son of Denham Red won last year’s Arkle under a very controlled Ruby Walsh, who appeared intent on holding his mount together.
Several people have crabbed that form in hindsight, but I think he won within himself that day and it did prove that he handled both the undulating track and quicker ground. I think he is better judged on his recent Clarence House form, when he easily brushed aside Sire De Grugy and Traffic Fluide, who has sadly been ruled out for the remainder of the season.
Allowed to dominate, Un De Sceaux jumped well and quickened up after the last to score by five lengths. If allowed his own way out in front, I expect Walsh and Un De Sceaux to dictate things once again, while should anyone try to take him on, I think they will be compromising their own chance.If he jumps soundly, he ought to maintain his unbeaten record when completing.
The one most likely to take him on for the lead is fellow Irish raider Special Tiara who we haven’t seen since chasing home Sire De Grugy in the Tingle Creek at Sandown in December. Henry De Bromhead’s nine-year-old goes well fresh and on decent ground,but he could finish only third last year and will have a more difficult task in attempting to dominate here. The 2014 winner Sire De Grugy has returned to somewhere near his best this term and sandwiched in between those aforementioned performances came a gutsy second to Sprinter Sacre at Kempton over Christmas.
There shouldn’t be much between the pair again strictly on that piece of form, so some would argue he represents a bit of value, but I think Sprinter Sacre will confirm the form. Nicky Henderson’s one-time unbeatable 10-year-old has also returned to form this term and, while he will never reach those lofty heights of his first two seasons over fences, the son of Network could still give the market leader most to think about.
His thrashing of Somersby in the Shloer Chase in November was one of the highlights of the early part of the season and, given that performance came on his reappearance, I think Henderson has done the right thing in freshening him up for this.At bigger odds, Un De Sceaux’s stablemate FelixYonger is capable of going well and it is worth remembering that he did finish runner-up to Simonsig in the 2012 Neptune, but last year’s winner Dodging Bullets appeals as the each-way value, despite seemingly disappointing on his recent return at Newbury.
Paul Nicholls’eight-year-old might well have been undercooked and the deep ground on Betfair Hurdle day would have emphasised any weakness in fitness.Back on a quicker surface,the Dubawi gelding can step forward and can hit the frame. 1.UN DE SCEAUX (4/5) 2.SPRINTER SACRE (9/2) 3.DODGING BULLETS (12/1)H
YAN-TASTIC! NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE PREVIEW
Unbeaten in four starts over hurdles YANWORTH can complete the‘nap’hand by landing this race for Alan King and JP McManus.A dual bumper winner who finished fourth in the Championship contest here 12 months ago, the Norse Dancer chestnut has beaten smart horses on all four starts this term and his form stacks up extremely well.
After beating Welsh Shadow and Barney Dwan (won their next three between them) in the gloom at Exeter, he went on to give Le Prezien (won his next two) 7lb and a beating,before not coming off the bridle to beat recent Musselburgh winner Charbel in the Kennel Gate at Ascot. But it was his effortless success at Cheltenham on trials day, when stepped up in trip for the first time, that marked him down as the horse to beat in the Festival contest.
The six-year-old cantered through the race under Barry Geraghty and sauntered clear of the hitherto unbeaten Shantou Village, crossing the line with seven lengths to spare. A reproduction of that effort sets a very high standard and he looks the pick of the British trained novice hurdlers.The runner-up might re-oppose, but only if the ground is good and rain is expected later in the week, otherwise he will be aimed at Friday’s Albert Bartlett.
With that in mind and, given that he trains the next five in the market,it is most likely that Willie Mullins, who saddled Faugheen and Mikael D’Haguenet to win this in recent years, will provide the main danger.
Bellshill lost his unbeaten record over timber when flopping in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle.The ground was awful that day, so any horse can be forgiven for underperforming, but I would prefer to see the same owners’ Yorkhill run in this, as opposed to the Supreme.The six-year-old, who won a brace of bumpers last term including a race at the Punchestown Festival that has worked out well, easily won on his hurdles debut at Punchestown before dropping in trip to land the Grade 1 Tolworth at Sandown. Bred to relish further, he would make plenty of each-way appeal here if given the green light (or once the NRNB concession comes into play).
Long Dog could well step back up in trip for this, though A Toi Phl could be the other Mullins-trained runner to throw down a challenge.The Day Flight gelding took a big step forward last time, moving stylishly to land a Grade 2 at Leopardstown and, though more is required here, the six-year-old is capable of going well. Looking further down the market Penglai Pavilion is one that could well be overpriced and John Ferguson’s charge could easily outrun his odds of 40/1. A highclass performer on the Flat, the six-year-old made it three from three when scoring impressively over course-and-distance last October, before struggling behind Shantou Village and Champers On Ice. I’m pretty sure he didn’t run his race that day. 1.YANWORTH (EVS) 2.YORKHILL (8/1) / A TOI PHIL (14/1) 3.PENGLAI PAVILION (40/1)
MORE JOY FOR MCMANUS RSA CHASE PREVIEW
The winner of the 2014 World Hurdle MORE OF THAT can win the RSA Chase for Jonjo O’Neill and JP McManus, who will be hoping for a day to remember.The eight-year-old returned from the best part of a year off to brush aside As De Mee in the Steel Plate And Sections in November and he returned to this track to land a three-runner novice event on the New course at the December meeting.
The Beneficial gelding has jumped well in the main, wasting little time in the air, and, while he has the pace for 2m4f (still entered in the JLT), staying 3m clearly proved no problem to him over timber. His lack of experience is a slight concern, as the ‘trends boys’ will tell you that Don Poli is the only winner in the past 16 years to have run less than three times, but his jumping hasn’t really been of any concern to date.
He missed possible engagements in the Scilly Isles and over 3m at Newbury on Betfair Hurdle day, so arrives here fresh and, while I think there is little to split the front two in the market, More Of That boasts the crucial Cheltenham course form (unbeaten in four starts here in total). No More Heroes has also jumped very well this term; economical over his obstacles, Gordon Elliott’s seven-year-old has headed the betting for this race for some time, having won in impressive fashion on debut at Punchestown. After following up in the Drinmore at Fairyhouse, he completed the hat-trick when staying on strongly over 3m in the Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas. Gigginstown
won that race 12 months earlier with Don Poli, who of course followed up here, (again) defying the trends, becoming the first horse in 52 years to win the RSA having not run in the same calendar year – More Of That must break this, too.
No More Heroes was made for fences and he has looked a natural to date. A big run looks assured, though genuinely good ground would be a slight worry for me, given he is right at home on heavy and he did disappoint at Punchestown last April, though he might well have been over the top at that stage. Without wanting to sound disrespectful to his connections, Blaklion might not quite possess the same class as More Of That and No More Heroes, but ‘non-sexy’ horses often win RSA’s and he is very much the benchmark horse for me.
Nigel Twiston-Davies’ seven-year-old has had five runs, three of them coming at Cheltenham, and he looked the likeliest winner when falling three out at the Open meeting.He got off the mark the following month before chasing home See you at-midnight in the Dipper on New Year’s Day (gave him 3lb). The Kayf Tara gelding returned to winning ways in taking fashion in Wetherby’s Towton Novices’ Chase, giving Definitly Red 7lb and an eightlength beating and this thorough stayer looks the solid each-way play at 12/1.
See you at midnight would also deserve consideration, but he might need it on the soft side to confirm that form, while Black Hercules would not be out of place if pitching up here rather than in the fourmiler. 1.MORE OF THAT (9/2) 2.NO MORE HEROES (11/4) 3.BLAKLION (12/1)
KAEMPFER UP FOR THE CUP CORAL CUP PREVIEW
Not even quoted in the betting, the Coral Cup looks the ideal race for the strong travelling OUR KAEMPFER who can provide Charlie Longsdon with his first Festival winner.The seven-year-old developed into a smart novice last term, finishing third in the Grade 1 at Aintree behind Thistlecrack, and he hasn’t enjoyed much luck so far this season, latterly when brought down in the valuable fixed brush hurdle.
Freshened up and saved to protect his attractive handicap mark (140) a strongly run 2m5f might well be ideal, despite the fact that he is qualified for the Pertemps.
I have long been a fan of Diamond King who has flourished for the switch to Gordon Elliott. An easy winner at Punchestown in January, he is currently rated 144 in Ireland and I worry he might be handicapped out of things here (was given 149 when holding a UK entry earlier in the season).In the sameWhateley silks Rock The Kasbah is another who would be high up the weights after progressing this term (21lb worse off with Our Kaempfer for their Silver Trophy clash). He beat Baron Alco at Ascot recently but Gary Moore’s five-year-old has made giant strides since finishing midfield in last year’s Fred Winter, while Politologue represents last year’s winning connections and deserves consideration.
Thomas Hobson would be another Irish raider to note. His jumping would be cause for concern,but he is well treated if that improves for better ground, and fellow novice A Hare Breath should be short-listed if running either here or in the Martin Pipe. 1.OUR KAEMPFER (not quoted) 2.DIAMOND KING (14/1) 3.BARON ALCO (33/1)
CROSS COUNTRY KING RETURNS CROSS COUNTRY CHASE PREVIEW
Enda Bolger last won the Cross Country Chase in 2009, but he can return to the winners’ enclosure this year, as he holds a very strong hand for the first running of the race as a non-handicap.
JOSIES ORDERS won races over this unique track in November and December. The former was a handicap, when he was clearly well in, and he was impressive in following up the following month. He was only ninth on his recent return to action over hurdles, but that should have put him spot on for his big assignment with Nina Carberry likely to be aboard.
Quantitativeeasing finished one place ahead of him in that Navan handicap hurdle, having earlier beaten Love Rory in the Risk Of Thunder Chase at Punchestown.
Cantlow represents Bolger/McManus and looks a big price at 20/1,judged on his recent debut for the stable. Cantlow was formerly a high-class handicapper for Paul Webber.
Runner-up in the past two renewals Any Currency has to head the UK contenders, while the Philip Hobbs-trained pairing of Balthazar King and Duke Of Lucca are also worth considering, if lining up. Balthazar King is another course specialist, who we haven’t seen since taking a horrid fall in last year’s Grand National. 1.JOSIES ORDERS (5/2) 2.CANTLOW (20/1) 3.QUANTITATIVEEASING (6/1)
NICHOLLS A WINTER WARMER FRED WINTER JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE PREVIEW
Paul Nicholls, who saddled the first two
home in last year’s race, has a cracking Fred Winter record and he again holds a strong hand with FRODON and, possibly even more interesting, TOMMY SILVER. The latter was an impressive winner at Musselburgh on his second start, having chased home Fix Le Kap on debut, and has been handed an attractive looking mark (134).
The problem is, Nicholls might not have the time to get another run into him, in order to qualify him to run. Nicholls, who also won the race with Sanctuaire back in 2010 and was responsible for placed horses in 2013 (second and third) and 2014 (second and fourth), could rely on Frodon if Tommy Silver doesn’t make the line up.
He shaped well on his British debut, in a handicap against his elders on trials day off a mark of 138.While that wasn’t the strongest of Cheltenham handicaps, it was a fair effort and, off the same mark, he can go well against his own age group here.
The Dan Skelton-trained Kasakh Noir finished just behind Tommy Silver at Newbury, having won there on debut, and he returned to winning ways at Market Rasen recently. He is shortlist material, along with recent Catterick first and second Jaleo and Our Thomas. The former scored by 11 lengths, but the latter hadn’t run since October and was notably weak in the market. 1.TOMMY SILVER (20/1)/FRODON (16/1) 2.JALEO (16/1) 3.KASAKH NOIR (20/1)
DON’T FORGET ABOUT CASTELLO CHAMPION BUMPER PREVIEW
The market for the Champion Bumper is dominated by Mullins trained horses and CASTELLO SFORZA could well be the pick of his bunch. Absent since winning a valuable contest at Fariy house last Easter, the five-year-old son of Milan (named after the castle in the Italian city) was later led out of Goffs sale unsold at
€ 310,000. He created a deep impression on debut, beating Sunni May (won recently) and Death Duty, who has won twice since and would be a contender himself if allowed to travel. Mullins stated after that debut success that he might be one for the 2016 Champion Bumper and we know he can ready one after a break with Joe Cullen winning the 2000 renewal some nine months after winning on debut.
Aidan O’Brien’s Aspen Colorado won impressively at Leopardstown in January. That race is difficult to assess, however, with the next four home neither having run before or since. Newbury winner Bally andy deserves his position in the betting and is the pick of the English trained horses seen to date. He sets the standard and is a course winner, so should go well, while Couer Blimey, who beat him at Ascot, and High Bridge warrant consideration.
If Henderson can get him there Ok Corral is another for any shortlist, judged on his second to Yorkhill at Punchestown. 1.CASTELLO SFORZA (20/1) 2. BALLY ANDY (12/1) 3.OK CORRAL (14/1)