Paul Ferguson on Champion Hurdle Day
Paul Ferguson previews the Festival’s opening day
CHAMPION HURDLE PREVBIEW
Champion Hurdle favourite Faugheen was ruled out of the Festival through a leg injury on the same day that stablemate Annie Power was making a winning reappearance at Punchestown. That return to action, which was no more than a public exercise, was expected to determine whether or not she would contest the mares’ hurdle or take on Thistlecrack in the World Hurdle.
But, with Faugheen out, it would seem probable that owner Rich Ricci will pay the fee to supplement ANNIE POWER for the Champion Hurdle and, if he does, she has the class to land the feature on day one.
The eight-year-old has suffered defeat just twice in her 15-race career, at each of the past two Festivals. Runner-up to More Of That in the 2014 World Hurdle, she, of course, fell when about to run right away with last year’s Mares’ Hurdle and she would be a ‘shoo in’ for that contest this time around.
So, what about her prospects back in trip at 2m? Her record at 2m2f or less is unblemished, but three of those ten victories came in bumpers, while she was meeting much lesser opposition in the seven hurdle races. But, she is all class and the way she tanks through her races suggests to me that a strongly run 2m will suit and it could just be that she is better than this field – rather like Kauto Star, some horses can win over various distances and I sincerely hope she is supplemented, so we can see just how good she is.
Despite losing Faugheen, trainer Willie Mullins still finds himself with the top three in the betting – behind the new market leader Annie Power come Arctic Fire and Nichols Canyon.The former was obliterated by Faugheen in the Irish Champion Hurdle recently, but finished runner-up last year and looks sure to be in the shake-up once again.
Nichols Canyon, who defeated Faugheen earlier in the campaign, has since regressed and was 13 lengths off Arctic Fire last time. Despite seemingly being slightly below par, he still had too much for Identity Thief over Christmas and, while Henry De Bromhead’s runner needs to step forward again here, he seems to have had an ideal preparation, as opposed to Nichols Canyon who has had a tough season.
At the time of writing, we have still to see My Tent Or Yours, yet he is trading as low as 6/1 (from 20s) ahead of his intended return in the Kingwell Hurdle. Given that the value has gone and he will have run by the time you read this, it can pay to make judgement on his chances nearer the time.
The New One is next best, but it will be a shock if he can win the Champion on this year’s form. It is difficult to spot any value in this newly shaped market, though it could be argued that Top Notch is the one, judged on his narrow second to Identity Thief.
If Mullins can work his magic with Nichols Canyon, he could easily saddle the first three home again. 1.ANNIE POWER (9/4) 2.ARCTIC FIRE (7/2) 3.NICHOLS CANYON (5/1)
DOUVAN’S THE MAN ARKLE TROPHY PREVIEW
The winner of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 12 months ago, DOUVAN is fancied to maintain his 100% record over fences and provide Willie Mullins with back-to-back victories in the Arkle.
The Walk In The Park gelding hasn’t broke sweat in making it three from three over fences, scoring at Navan on debut and twice in Grade 1 company at Leopardstown. An easy winner of the same beginners’ chase that Vautour had won 12 months earlier, the six-year-old beat Sizing John by 18 lengths over Christmas, despite making an error at the last.
He appeared to step forward again next time – though he was probably facing an easier task on paper – to land the Irish Arkle and, while he is an unoriginal selection (and the opening day might not appeal to many from a punting perspective), he is very much the most likely winner here.
Prior to his demise in the Kingmaker at Warwick, L’Ami Serge looked the most likely danger and Nicky Henderson found it difficult to explain his defeat to Violet Dancer. Beaten 11 lengths, the six-yearold didn’t jump fluently (reportedly schooled beautifully two days before the race) and the ground shouldn’t have really been an issue, given his previous form.It is difficult to be too confident about a horse arriving at Cheltenham, in particular in a Grade 1, on the back of such a laboured effort, but he had earlier looked a natural and it is hoped that Henderson can iron out any issues between now and mid-March.
His stable-mate Vaniteux was a highclass hurdler who jumped beautifully on his chasing bow at Kempton, but that hasn’t been the case since. He belted the first when beaten by Ar Mad in the Wayward Lad and he was far from foot perfect when winning the Lightning Novices’ Chase at Doncaster in late-January. Vaniteux will need to jump better.
This race could cut up considerably but, of those at bigger odds, Sizing John would be worth considering if lining up (though he is being touted as a possible for the JLT), while Garde La Victoire might be capable of hitting the frame. Three from three over fences, his debut defeat of Bristol De Mai now reads particularly well and the race might have come a little soon for him. The seven-year-old completed the hat-trick at Ludlow, giving Doctor Harper 10lbs and, while his jumping might not have impressed everyone, I can see him giving a good of account of himself here.
Of the remainder, 50/1 shot Alisier D’Irlande is a horse I have plenty of time for, but his front-running style could be better suited to Aintree and the Maghull Novices’ Chase might be the race for him. 1.DOUVAN (1/2) 2.GARDE LAVICTOIRE (20/1) 3.VANITEUX (7/1)
MIN-VINCIBLE SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE PREVIEW
Two from two since arriving from France, MIN is fancied to provide Willie Mullins and owner Rich Ricci with a fourth successive victory in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Following the victories of Champagne Fever, Vautour and Douvan the bookmakers have been running for cover since this five-year-old justified the hype when beating Gurteen by 14 lengths at Punchestown and he followed up by landing the Moscow Flyer at the same track in January.
Vautour and Douvan both landed that contest en route to winning the Festival curtain-raiser and, while he is tight enough in the market, there seems to be every chance that Min will follow suit. That Moscow Flyer form has since been franked by the runner-up and, if you like the market leader, you will probably be best waiting until the day now, as he is sure to be pushed out on the morning of day one.
Nicky Henderson looks set to throw down the biggest challenge, with the Lambourn trainer responsible for the next two in the market, Altior and Buveur D’Air. The former is a keen-going sort – the same can be said of the favourite – but he is four from four over hurdles and the form of his Kempton success on Boxing Day is pretty strong – the second, fifth and sixth have all won since.
A course winner back in November, he looks the type to improve for better ground, though he does jump like a chaser and their respective hurdling techniques sways things in favour of the market leader for me.
Stable-mate Buveur D’Air won a really warm maiden hurdle at Newbury on his debut, before following up at Huntingdon and he is likely to run again before the Supreme, with the Dovecote the likely target.The five-year-old had plenty of future winners in behind on debut and he looks a professional in type. Given that he settles well and appears to jump nimbly, I suspect Noel Fehily will want to keep hold of his mount for as long as possible here, especially if Min and/or Altior pull their way to the front, and the race could well be run to suit. He looks sure to go well and is my idea of the each-way play in the race.
You have to go back to 1992 for the last Henderson-trained winner of the Supreme, but he has lots of placed horses in recent seasons, including Amaretto Rose, Binocular, Spirit Son, S printer Sacre, Darlan, My Tent Or Yours, Josses Hill and Vanituex. Yorkhill is a horse I think an awful lot of and his Tolworth form now reads really well, but I would run him in the Neptune if he were mine, unless we get a soft ground start to the meeting.
At bigger odds Wait For Me catches the eye but needs to jump more slickly, while Dan Skelton’s Mister Miyagi and North Hill Harvey are another pair to note. The quicker the ground the better for the first named, while the latter will appreciate the drop back in trip. 1. MIN (7/4) 2. BUVEUR D’AIR (8/1) 3. ALTIOR (5/1)
HERCULES POWER NATIONAL HUNT CHASE PREVIEW
BLACK HERCULES can provide Willie Mullins and owner Graham Wylie with a second National Hunt Chase following on from the success of Back In Focus in 2013. Sent off favourite for last year’s Albert Bartlett, Hercules finished fourth in the Champion Bumper the season before and he made the perfect start to his chase career when scoring at Navan.The sevenyear-old followed up at Warwick before falling at the last, with a Grade 2 at his mercy back in Navan.
The son of Heron Island had barely put a foot wrong in three chase starts to that point and, provided that hasn’t left a mark, he can bounce back under Patrick Mullins. Stable-mate Roi Des Francs is second in the market and he looks a thorough stayer. Third in the Martin Pipe last year, he is a Grade 2 winner over fences and is another who holds sound claims. If backing novice chasers on the back of a fall isn’t for you, Neil Mulholland’s Southfield Royale is a viable each-way alternative. He was last seen finishing second in the Feltham on Boxing Day, having earlier beaten subsequent Sky Bet Chase second Coologue in a Grade 2 at Doncaster and this race was nominated as his Festival target several weeks ago.
Definitly Red who finished second to Black Hercules at Warwick, before chasing home Blaklion in the Towton is one to consider at bigger odds (25/1). 1 BLACK HERCULES (4/1) 2.SOUTHFIELD ROYALE (10/1) 3.ROI DES FRANCS (7/1)
BROWN CAN TAN THEM SULTIMA BUSINESS SOLUTIONS HANDICAP CHASE PREVIEW
Novices have a cracking record in the opening handicap of the Cheltenham Festival, the Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase, and THOMAS BROWN looks on a fair mark. There were no entries available for any of the handicap races at the time of writing so be sure to take a look at the entries once they are announced in late February.
Thomas Brown looked smart when scoring on debut at Ascot and, after disappointing slightly in a Grade 2 at the same track, he stayed on well to score over this sort of trip at Doncaster. He was the winner of a decent novice hurdle here on New Year’s Day in 2015 and I would expect Harry Fry to give his seven-yearold an entry in this – holds entries in the RSA and JLT.
An Irish contender to take seriously would be Paddy Power Chase winner Minella Foru who is unexposed at the trip, while in the same JP McManus silks If In Doubt is likely to be given an entry, despite having qualified for the Pertemps Final. Finally, his stable-mate Kruzhlinin would warrant respect, but the Grand National is his main aim. 1.THOMAS BROWN (20/1)2.SOUTHFIELD THEATRE (25/1)3.MINELLA FORU (14/1)
MULLINS STRANGLEHOLD DAVID NICHOLSON MARES’ HURDLE PREVIEW
Willie Mullins and Rich Ricci have a stranglehold on the David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle, with either ANNIE POWER or VROUMVROUM MAG capable of providing the trainer with an eighth straight win in the race. Annie Power famously fell with the race at her mercy 12 months ago and there is now every chance that she will be supplemented for the Champion Hurdle, paving the way for Vroum Vroum Mag to do the business.
The latter is unbeaten in eight starts since arriving from France, six times over fences and latterly twice over timber.She bolted up in a similar contest to this at Ascot recently and, assuming Annie Power runs elsewhere, she will be difficult to beat.
Looking around for dangers, last year’s runner-up Polly Peachum is an obvious contender while third home Bitofapuzzle could revert to smaller obstacles, having failed to complete on her latest two novice chases.
The one I like at the prices, as an eachway alternative is Paul Nicholls’ Tara Point, who hasn’t been seen since Christmas 2014. She looked a smart novice in the making last term and, while the layoff isn’t ideal, Nicholls has stated for some time that she will be readied for this race.
At a much bigger price, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Katie Too go well, should Alan King run her here as opposed to in the new novice race.The fact that she has already won over 2m5f (by 24 lengths) makes me think that connections might consider this race. 1.ANNIE POWER (7/2) /VROUM VROUM MAG (7/4) 2.TARA POINT (20/1) 3. KATIE TOO (40/1)
DOUBLE FOR GEORGECHAPS NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE PREVIEW
Not seen since mid-December, Tom George has hopefully been protecting the mark of DOUBLE SHUFFLE with this chase in mind. Twice a winner over hurdles, George was quick to point out that he was looking forward to the chasing career of Double Shuffle, who caught the eye on his first couple of starts over fences. Both runs came at Cheltenham. Beaten 11 lengths by More Of That, the six-year-old then won a Ludlow novices’ handicap with a bit in hand. Up 4lbs to 138, this 0/140 contest seems the obvious target. Imagine The Chat is a horse I’ve had in mind all season, but he flopped on trials day and would need to win again before the Festival to get a run, while in the same colours (McManus) Unique De Cotte would be a definite player, if making the cut.
Another on the cusp is Ballyalton who is also rated 140. He chased home Faugheen in the 2014 Neptune. Full Shift is certainly capable off his current mark. 1.DOUBLE SHUFFLE (20/1) 2.UNIQUE DE COTTE (no quote) 3.FULL SHIFT (25/1)
Vroum Vroum Mag is unbeaten in eight starts since arriving from France, six times over fences and latterly twice over timber