Early pointers for derby and ascot

Andy N ewton discusses the first Classics

With the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals done and dusted and just the big Punchestown meeting at the end of April left – it’s certainly been another jumping campaign to saviour – but the attention turns to the Flat from here on in.

The action comes thick-and-fast over the next few months and we will have have had four of the five English Classics behind us in just over a month.The first of those are the 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas this month, so these Newmarket races are going to be the focus in this edition – two races that should give us some early-season pointers ahead of the Epsom Derby & Oaks, plus Royal Ascot, Goodwood andYork later in the year.

So to hopefully help you find the winner, and whittle down the field, I’ve got key stats to look out for ahead of each race – this year run on April 30 and May 1.

2,000 Guineas ( May 1)

By far the biggest‘standout’stat is that ALL of the last 14 winners came here of the back of a top three finish in their most recent race, while with 12 of the last 14 winners having won over 7f before, and also winning a Group race,then these are other key trends to look out for.

Eleven of the last 14 winners actually won last time out too,so that should knock plenty out,while 12 of the last 14 successful horses had won between 2-5 times before in their short careers.

It’s a contest that’s been kind to punters with 9 of the last 14 winners hailing from the top three in the market,plus 9 of the last 14 favourites were also placed - while don’t be too concerned if your fancy hasn’t had a run yet this season as 9 of the last 14 winners took this on their first run back.

The Irish have a good recent record too with 8 of the last 14 going to a yard based in the Emerald Isle, plus, is goes without saying the Aidan O’Brien-trained horses are the ones to look for with seven wins in the race since 1998, including 12 months ago when his classy Gleneagles blew the opposition away to win by 2 ¼ lengths.

So,looking at this year’s race then,just as the betting suggests,everything points to another Aidan O’Brien win with his Air Force Blue the clear favourite in the antepost markets. This classy 3 year-old has only been beaten once from five runs,and was last seen winning the Dewhurst Stakes by 3 ¼ lengths at Newmarket last October – a race three of the last 14 winners of the 2,000 Guineas won the season before.That was his third Group One victory and although he’s yet to prove himself over further than 7f the way he’s won his last two races suggests another furlong is well within range and is the call to give his powerful yard their eighth success in this Classic.

Past 2,000 GuineasWinners

2015 – Gleneagles (4/1 fav) 2014 – Night Of Thunder (40/1) 2013 – Dawn Approach (11/8 fav) 2012 – Camelot (15/8 fav) 2011 – Frankel (1/2 fav) 2010 – Makfi (33/1) 2009 – Sea The Stars (8/1) 2008 – Henrythenavigator (11/1) 2007 – Cockney Rebel (25/1) 2006 – GeorgeWashington (6/4 fav) 2005 – Footstepsinthesand (13/2) 2004 – Haafhd (11/2) 2003 – Refuse to Bend (9/2) 2002 – Rock of Gibraltar (9/1)

2,000 GuineasTrends

14/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out 12/14 – Had won over at least 7f before 12/14 – Had won a Group race before 12/14 – Had won between 2-5 times before 11/14 – Won last time out 10/14 – Winning distance – less than 2l 9/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting 9/14 – Having their first run of the season 8/14 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before 9/14 – Placed favourites 8/14 –Won by an Irish-based yard 8/14 – Irish bred 6/14 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (7 wins in all) 5/14 – Had won over a mile before 5/14 – Winning favourites 4/14 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before 4/14 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (2 winners) 3/14 – Ran at the Curragh last time out 3/14 – Won the Dewhurst Stakes the previous season The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 11/1