Andy newton

St Leger facts and figures

Looking at the key trends in the St Leger

As we enter September we are now in the final few months of the turf Flat season but there is still plenty to look forward to over the next eight weeks or so – then it’s full steam ahead towards the jumpers! So, this month we conclude another Classic year with the Ladbrokes-sponsored St Leger as one of the main highlights and that’s the race I’m going to focus on for this edition.

The race was first staged in 1776 and the St Leger is the oldest of the five English Classics and, therefore, has bundles of history attached to it. In recent times the Triple Crown (2,000 Guineas, Epsom Derby & St Leger) was last won by the classy Nijinsky (1970), but the Aidan O’Brien-trained Camelot came very close in 2012 after scooping the 2,000 Guineas and Epsom Derby before going down ¾ of a length (2nd) in his Leger and Triple Crown bid that year. We’ve not got a horse going for all three races this season, but there is a good chance that the Derby third, Idaho, and the King George runnerup, Wings Of Desire, will line-up to give the race plenty of appeal.

Aidan O’Brien, who trains Idaho, has a great record in the race – winning it four times, with Leading Light being his most recent in 2013. The ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin are the other top yard to look for as they’ve been successful six times, while John Gosden, has been responsible for four winners during his career, including three of the last 9.

In the ‘backer v layer’ battle the contest has certainly favoured punters with 6 of the last 14 favourites winning, and this is backed-up further with a staggering 12 of the last 14 market leaders making the frame.

However, by far the biggest ‘standout’ stat in recent times is that 13 of the last 14 winners finished in the top 3 in their most recent outing, while the same amount had won just 2 or 3 times previously.

Don’t be too concerned if the horse you like is yet to race over this 1m6f (or further) trip as 10 of the last 14 winners were trying this distance for the first time.

The St Leger has several leading trial races that horses often use as stepping stones before heading here. Having run in either the Great Voltigeur (17th Aug, York) or the Gordon Stakes (27th July, Goodwood) is significant with 9 of the last 14 St Leger winners running in one of those races before taking this, with 4 of the last 14 (2 each) actually winning one of those leading staying races before going onto St Leger glory. Idaho won the Great Voltigeur in impressive fashion so the current market leader has another big stat on his side.

Despite being run over 1m6f the draw has also played a key role with 8 of the last 14 winners coming from stalls 5 or higher, while we’ve seen just 2 winners from stall one take the prize during that 14 year period, with last year’s winner, Simple Verse, being one of those.

Finally, coming here in-form is vital. We’ve already mentioned that horses that finished in the top three in their last race are worth keeping on your side, but 8 of the last 14 actually won their last race, plus 10 of the last 14 winners went to Doncaster with between 4 or 5 previous runs that season - backing-up the fitness and experience angle once more, and another big trend in favour of Idaho, who recently won the Great Voltigeur on his fifth start of the season.

At this stage the clear favourite is Idaho, who will be bidding to give Aidan O’Brien a fifth win in the race and really if reproducing his Epsom Derby third, Irish Derby second and recent Great Voltigeur win at York (a top trial race) then he’s the clear form pick. Recent St Leger Winners 2015 – Simple Verse (8/1) 2014 – Kingston Hill (9/4 fav) 2013 – Leading Light (7/2 fav) 2012 – Encke (25/1) 2011 – Masked Marvel (15/2) 2010 – Arctic Cosmos (12/1) 2009 – Mastery (14/1) 2008 – Conduit (8/1) 2007 – Lucarno (7/2) 2006 – Sixties Icon (11/8 fav) 2005 – Scorpion (10/11 fav) 2004 – Rule of Law (3/1 jfav) 2003 – Brian Boru (5/4 fav) 2002 – Bollin Eric (7/1) Key St Leger 14Year Trends 13/14 – Had 2 or 3 previous career wins 13/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out 12/14 – Placed favourites 11/14 – Never raced at Doncaster before 11/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter 11/14 – Had won a Group race before 10/14 – Never raced over 1m6f or further 10/14 – Winning distance of 1 length or more 10/14 – Had 4 or 5 runs that season 9/14 – Officially rated 109 to 115 9/14 – Had won over at least 1m3f before 8/14 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher 8/14 – Won last time out 6/14 – Ran in the Great Voltigeur last time out (2 won it) 6/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint) 4/14 – USA-bred winners 3/14 – Ran in the Gordon Stakes last time out (2 won it) 3/14 – Trained by John Gosden 3/14 –Won by a Godolphin-owned horse 3/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien 3/14 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori 2/14 – Ridden byWilliam Buick 2/14 – Winners from stall 1 Godolphin have won the race 6 times. Aidan O’Brien has trained 4 winners.